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towny44
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Re: Brexit

Post by towny44 » 07 Jun 2019, 08:53

I had a good laugh at Labour's winning candidates acceptance speech:-

Ms Forbes hailed her "significant" victory and said it showed people had "rejected the politics of division".

As Richard Littlejohn would say, you couldn't make it up.
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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 07 Jun 2019, 09:20

Read Littlejohns piece about the screamy Nazi woman at the anti trump protest.

That is good.

Not much time for his politics but he certainly is observant.

My favourite right wing journo is Peter Oborne.
You never know what he is going to come out with.
Very sharp.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Mervyn and Trish » 07 Jun 2019, 12:18

towny44 wrote:
07 Jun 2019, 08:53
I had a good laugh at Labour's winning candidates acceptance speech:-

Ms Forbes hailed her "significant" victory and said it showed people had "rejected the politics of division".
Oh how they forget. In 2015 there were protests that the Conservative general election wasn't legitimate because the Tories only got 37% of the vote. That means 63% don't want them said Labour.

So now Labour win this seat with 31%. By their own maths that means 69% didn't want them. Significant victory?

In fact if you take the maths used by some, the turnout was only 48.4%. Which means only 15% voted for them. So we assume the other 85% didn't want them. Not exactly the will of the Peterborough people.

Personally if I was running either of the two main parties I'd be seriously worried that a new party, with no party machine, no manifesto and only one policy, had achieved 29% of the vote, only 2% behind one of them (should we run the vote again?) and thrashing the other.

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Re: Brexit

Post by david63 » 07 Jun 2019, 15:04

One can "cobble" together any number of statistics from those results - such as the Brexit party split the Conservative vote (which it probably did) which would have meant the the Conservatives could have won.

"lies, damned lies, and statistics" comes to mind!

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 07 Jun 2019, 15:21

And that is exactly why the remain side won the EU parliament elections David. :D

I quite like statistics personally. I love the way people interpret them.

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 11 Jun 2019, 11:23

I had an e-mail from one of our suppliers last week saying that they had gone into receivership.

A bit of a nuisance but not the end of the world as it's always easier to find suppliers than customers. I have got a replacement already.

Anyway, being a Danish company, I thought I'd find out why.

They have quoted Brexit as the main reason. ????

Bearing in mind that they trade in eight or nine other European countries, it makes me wonder whether this is just a convenient excuse.

Surely our Brexit uncertainty cannot have such impact on European companies that export here.

I though that we were just some tiny backwater, on the outskirts of Europe that was irrelevant in the grand scheme.

It does appear that EU countries do actually need our business.

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Re: Brexit

Post by oldbluefox » 11 Jun 2019, 11:59

In the world of the politician no matter what the outcome everybody is a winner as they twist the statistics to suit themselves. Even Anna Soubry was claiming what an encouraging result the Peterborough bye election had been. A few days later half of the 'party' quit and Ms Soubry became the leader. Everybody happy!!! :crazy: :roll:
Are they really so out of touch with the electorate that they fail to understand the real reasons for their lack of success, blind to the facts, putting on a brave face or their egos so big they don't care anyway?


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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 11 Jun 2019, 14:25

snake oil.jpg
STOCKS rapidly running out after big demand from PM contestants
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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 11 Jun 2019, 14:58

I'm not totally sure that I understand your standpoint Ray.
Are you saying that it is not possible to leave the EU?

If so, what is the point of Article 50?

The EU and UK press are still talking about the WA, but the reality is it has never been agreed.

It was a proposed agreement that was rejected by Parliament.
It is therefore dead.
So, the EU saying that they will not renegotiate is irrelevant.
There is no WA.

All that is left is a managed withdrawal, no managed withdrawal or a new negotiation.

I think that the existing proposal could pass parliament with tweeks to the Irish backstop but the EU say they will not move on that.
So, it is what it is.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Manoverboard » 11 Jun 2019, 16:26

I still think that the EU will move on the backstop, albeit at the eleventh hour.

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Re: Brexit

Post by screwy » 11 Jun 2019, 16:58

Which eleventh hour.? There have been a couple already. No.?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 11 Jun 2019, 17:31

Barney are you watching Years and Years (BBC1) It's becoming to appear more credible that our current Parliamentary antics.
If not, watch it. It's far more interesting than the often regurgitated stuff on here :angel: :lolno:

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Re: Brexit

Post by Manoverboard » 11 Jun 2019, 17:38

screwy wrote:
11 Jun 2019, 16:58
Which eleventh hour.? There have been a couple already. No.?
Nope … the only real eleventh hour is the one that strikes just an hour before we leave :lol:


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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 11 Jun 2019, 17:52

Ray Scully wrote:
11 Jun 2019, 17:31
Barney are you watching Years and Years (BBC1) It's beginning to appear more credible that our current Parliamentary antics.
If not, watch it. It's far more interesting than the often regurgitated stuff on here :angel: :lolno:

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Re: Brexit

Post by towny44 » 12 Jun 2019, 10:15

There is one other major problem, all the leading contenders except Gove have been fierce critics of May's withdrawal agreement, so they will want the EU to agree to more changes than just the Irish backstop; and I don't think the EU are likely to agree to that, even at the eleventh hour.
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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 12 Jun 2019, 11:17

Ray Scully wrote:
11 Jun 2019, 17:52
Ray Scully wrote:
11 Jun 2019, 17:31
Barney are you watching Years and Years (BBC1) It's beginning to appear more credible that our current Parliamentary antics.
If not, watch it. It's far more interesting than the often regurgitated stuff on here :angel: :lolno:
I have watched some of it Ray and you are 100% correct.
This current parliament has been nothing short of disgraceful.
All folk are asking for is a resolution.

You know my views.
I thought Brexit was pretty well over after they renaged on March 29th.
There may be some cobbled agreement but by and large, the UK will be staying in most of the EU agencies.
As Towny has often said, we would be better off remaining as we are.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Quizzical Bob » 12 Jun 2019, 14:04

barney wrote:
11 Jun 2019, 14:58
I'm not totally sure that I understand your standpoint Ray.
Are you saying that it is not possible to leave the EU?

If so, what is the point of Article 50?

The EU and UK press are still talking about the WA, but the reality is it has never been agreed.

It was a proposed agreement that was rejected by Parliament.
It is therefore dead.
So, the EU saying that they will not renegotiate is irrelevant.
There is no WA.

All that is left is a managed withdrawal, no managed withdrawal or a new negotiation.

I think that the existing proposal could pass parliament with tweeks to the Irish backstop but the EU say they will not move on that.
So, it is what it is.
It is at this stage that I recommend to you all the long-term offerings of researcher Dr. Richard North, spomeone who has worked at Brussels and with Farage and who has worked out that in order to leave the EU without completely trashing the economy it must be done in slow stages. The first of these is to enter EFTA/EEA and then try to change things from there. He calls this process 'FLEXCIT' and he has a daily blog on

www.eureferendum.com

You will find all sorts of views on the EU there from one extreme to the other including mine. For all that you might want to know about the EU and its workings you will find it there.

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 13 Jun 2019, 10:01

Quite an interesting read QB, but fails to address the most significant point.
By joining EFTA, the UK would still remain under the political constricts of the European Union.

It's all far to complicated.
It clearly suits small economies such as Norway, but would stifle UK competitiveness with the EU.

A simple tariff free trade agreement would be better for both parties.

Customs can be done off site, as it currently is with most other 'third countries'

The 'problem' of Ireland still remains, but with goodwill on both sides, this should also be solvable if we ever leave.

The EU didn't and still doesn't want the UK to leave.
It's only after we have formally gone will these sticking points be resolved, assuming of course, that they require unrestricted access to the very lucrative UK market place.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Quizzical Bob » 17 Jun 2019, 15:57

barney wrote:
13 Jun 2019, 10:01
Quite an interesting read QB, but fails to address the most significant point.
By joining EFTA, the UK would still remain under the political constricts of the European Union.

It's all far to complicated.
It clearly suits small economies such as Norway, but would stifle UK competitiveness with the EU.

A simple tariff free trade agreement would be better for both parties.

Customs can be done off site, as it currently is with most other 'third countries'

The 'problem' of Ireland still remains, but with goodwill on both sides, this should also be solvable if we ever leave.

The EU didn't and still doesn't want the UK to leave.
It's only after we have formally gone will these sticking points be resolved, assuming of course, that they require unrestricted access to the very lucrative UK market place.
Thanks for reading it Barney. Being a member of the EEA in no way puts us politically under the EU.

Leaving the EU will reduce our competitiveness under all scenarios.

A Free Trade Agreement is better than nothing but much worse than the Single Market in which Customs do not get involved. It makes no difference whether you do customs procedures on- or off-site it's the very fact of having to do them that involves the costs. Effectively there is an extra overhead on every transaction which means that it is uneconomic to handle small trades and depending on your profit margins puts a lower limit of a few hundred pounds on any sales.

The Irish problem is greatly reduced if we were to be in the EEA. Most products would not involve any extra costs. Dr North has devoted a lot of time to this aspect.

The UK market is important to the EU but not at the cost of compromising the Single Market. We represent a mauch smaller fraction of their export market than they do of ours.

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 18 Jun 2019, 14:39

I'll happily be corrected if I'm wrong QB, but my understanding of EFTA/EEA is that members must subscribe to the EU 'four freedoms' and take on any new EU legislation that comes in the future.
Add to that, that the UK would be expected to make substantial financial contributions as well, then it looks less and less attractive.

I'll agree that the Irish 'problem' would be reduced but then I'm convinced that this is all a bit of a red herring anyway.

Should we ever leave with no withdrawal agreement in place, I'm 100% positive that a hastily cobbled together agreement would be reached between all parties involved.
There is no way in a million years that the EU will put up a hard border in Ireland.
The UK will not, the Irish will not, so who will build and man this so called border? Germans? French?

If my calculation is wrong and the EU decided that a hard border is a must, then they will need to explain it to the Irish.

I appreciate that we represent a smaller fraction of the overall EU (combined) export market but that doesn't negate the fact that we have an almost £100 Billion trading deficit with them.
Many EU coutries will hardly notice a difference but you can bet that the big players will, particularly Germany, Belgium and Holland.

It has very recently occured to me why I dislike so much about how the EU is run.

It is because of the equality in it.

Minnow states like Malta, The Baltic States and Luxembourg roll onto the international stage, strutting their stuff and giving their opinons while taking litterally billions in subsidies.
Muscat's vote, with a voting population of 340K is equal to Macron's or Merkel's is just a bizarre situation.
With more QMV coming onto the statute, they will have the tail wagging the dog.
For instance, the majority could vote for a punitive financial transaction tax.
That would not affect them but have a major impact on the City or Frankfurt.
There would be nothing that we could do about it.

I was reading on Politico last week that there may be an agreement between warring factions in Brussels to allow Verhofstadt the job as President of the Parliament in return for allowing Weber to be President of the Commission.

That seems about right doesn't it?
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Re: Brexit

Post by towny44 » 18 Jun 2019, 15:13

And they complain that only 150,000 get to choose our new PM.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 23 Jun 2019, 17:30

Did anyone watch Liam Fox's interview on the Andrew Marr show today. It was encouraging to hear him speak to the reality that could be facing UK ltd. Got to admire him for his honesty on this occasion, better late than never.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Gill W » 23 Jun 2019, 23:42

He’s probably trying to distance himself from Brexit. Self preservation comes to mind
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Re: Brexit

Post by towny44 » 24 Jun 2019, 08:50

Gill W wrote:
23 Jun 2019, 23:42
He’s probably trying to distance himself from Brexit. Self preservation comes to mind
Are you thinking of starting a career writing political satire Gill?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Gill W » 24 Jun 2019, 10:45

towny44 wrote:
24 Jun 2019, 08:50
Gill W wrote:
23 Jun 2019, 23:42
He’s probably trying to distance himself from Brexit. Self preservation comes to mind
Are you thinking of starting a career writing political satire Gill?
No, there’s no point.

Satire is no longer required when daily political events are beyond parody
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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 24 Jun 2019, 11:34

Ray Scully wrote:
23 Jun 2019, 17:30
Did anyone watch Liam Fox's interview on the Andrew Marr show today. It was encouraging to hear him speak to the reality that could be facing UK ltd. Got to admire him for his honesty on this occasion, better late than never.
Barney with you being a guy for the detail, perhaps could you comment on Liam Fox's remarks.

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 24 Jun 2019, 14:37

I didn't see it Ray so have no comment on it.
What was said of importance?


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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 24 Jun 2019, 15:24

barney wrote:
24 Jun 2019, 14:37
I didn't see it Ray so have no comment on it.
What was said of importance?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... w-23062019 From 45 min.

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 24 Jun 2019, 17:06

Cheers Ray.
That sounds about right.
If the EU want tariffs then tariffs it will need to be.

Alternatively, move on the backstop and the proposal goes through.

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Re: Brexit

Post by towny44 » 24 Jun 2019, 17:30

The last comments I heard from Varadker was that removing the backstop was akin to a no deal Brexit, which was why he opposed changing anything related to the backstop. Although I don't want to consider a no deal brexit it would maybe be worth it to see his reaction as the whole Irish trading edifice crumbled around his ears, which he could have prevented with just a wee bit of common sense.
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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 24 Jun 2019, 18:46

Without a change to the backstop, the proposed deal will not pass.
It's a simple as that really.
Both Hunt and Johnson could get it through with an amendment.
Only Varadker cannot see it.
He will be hoisted by his own petard.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Mervyn and Trish » 24 Jun 2019, 20:55

I don't get it. He's right. But not removing the backstop means the default is no deal. At least if it was removed and both sides then negotiated in good faith there'd be no need for it anyway.

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Re: Brexit

Post by oldbluefox » 24 Jun 2019, 21:30

Seems it is only UK who are not allowed red lines.

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 24 Jun 2019, 22:26

Mervyn and Trish wrote:
24 Jun 2019, 20:55
I don't get it. He's right. But not removing the backstop means the default is no deal. At least if it was removed and both sides then negotiated in good faith there'd be no need for it anyway.
They don't trust us.

They don't trust the country that pays for their security and who liberated their fathers.

The EU as an institution will not tolerate anyone who doesn't toe the line.

Ask Italy


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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 25 Jun 2019, 01:52

Watched this evenings interview with Laura K. Bojo has gone and let the unicorns out :-)


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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 25 Jun 2019, 12:54

Gets more entertaining by the day, old photo with girlfriend? gets shot down for lying when saying Sadiq Khan was partly responsible for £17m of expenditure on the Garden bridge project. What entertainment has he in store for us this afternoon.

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 25 Jun 2019, 13:00

Are you a tory voter Ray.
You seem a little obsessed.

it's hardly a shock that Boris Johnson acts like ….. Boris Johnson

It's all irrelevant my old mate.

We don't get a vote until the general election.

Then, we can all vote for Jezza the Red :thumbup:

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 25 Jun 2019, 13:07

Mervyn and Trish wrote:
24 Jun 2019, 20:55
I don't get it. He's right. But not removing the backstop means the default is no deal. At least if it was removed and both sides then negotiated in good faith there'd be no need for it anyway.
The EU don't have to budge an inch Merv.

They know full well that there is little chance of our MPs allowing any kind of no deal exit.
Some Tories have gone public in saying that they would bring down their own government before agreeing to that.

It would then need a GE to sort it out.

I note that Labour have written to all of their MPS asking them if they wish to contest the next GE.
If they do, then they need the backing of two thirds of their local party to proceed.
If they cannot get two thirds, then they can be challenged internally by alternative candidates.
So, it's the end of a job for life in a safe Labour seat.
I expect quite a few will be 'unselected' by this method.

I wonder if the Tories will do something similar to eject the dissenters
The likes of Grieve, Lee, Bubb and others are looking to be on a sticky wicket.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 25 Jun 2019, 13:47

barney wrote:
25 Jun 2019, 13:00
Are you a tory voter Ray.
You seem a little obsessed.

it's hardly a shock that Boris Johnson acts like ….. Boris Johnson

It's all irrelevant my old mate.

We don't get a vote until the general election.

Then, we can all vote for Jezza the Red :thumbup:
No no Barney, I am politically homeless at the moment. However I am enjoying the antics and performance of Bojo. As for the general election I can see a coalition headed by Rees Mogg and John McDonald :angel: :D

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 25 Jun 2019, 15:16

Ray Scully wrote:
25 Jun 2019, 13:47
barney wrote:
25 Jun 2019, 13:00
Are you a tory voter Ray.
You seem a little obsessed.

it's hardly a shock that Boris Johnson acts like ….. Boris Johnson

It's all irrelevant my old mate.

We don't get a vote until the general election.

Then, we can all vote for Jezza the Red :thumbup:
No no Barney, I am politically homeless at the moment. However I am enjoying the antics and performance of Bojo. As for the general election I can see a coalition headed by Rees Mogg and John McDonald :angel: :D
:lol: :lol: :lol:
If you are politically homeless, then the future doesn't look too great for you.

Labour lurching to the far left and the Tories … well, I'm not quite sure where they are going.

The Libdems could be an alternative but history has proven that it is easy to be a minor party spouting off every five minutes about what you would do, but when given the chance, they blew it bigtime and went back to political oblivion.

One thing that I will predict is that if the UK is still in the EU come 1st November, then there will be a huge surge from Tory and Labour to the Brexit Party.
I'd go as far as to say mass defections form the Tories.


Chuka and Soubry have pointed out that you can change party (more than once in Chuka's case) without the inconvenience of asking your electorate.

As I've said previously, after 29th March, all bets are off for the future of British ploitics.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Kenmo1 » 25 Jun 2019, 17:29

Both Boris and Jeremy Hunt are visiting the Isle of Wight this coming Thursday and already 3 woman are intending to arrange a protest against domestic abuse for when Boris is here. I think that subject will haunt Boris for the next month at least.

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 25 Jun 2019, 18:26

I honestly believe that he would have been better off to front it out and said, yep, we had a bit of a row.
People do occasionally.
Trying to deflect the issue leaves questions.

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Re: Brexit

Post by david63 » 25 Jun 2019, 18:56

As I said before, Boris is, in my opinion, positioning himself for the next leader after this one. He does not want a short tenure and would rather someone else took up the "poisoned chalice"

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Re: Brexit

Post by Manoverboard » 26 Jun 2019, 09:31

barney wrote:
25 Jun 2019, 18:26
I honestly believe that he would have been better off to front it out and said, yep, we had a bit of a row.
People do occasionally.
Trying to deflect the issue leaves questions.
That would surely be a bad idea as it would deffo have been seen as a green light for the muck raking journalists to go seek a response from his partner plus their cat and the cleaner etc. :thumbdown:

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Re: Brexit

Post by oldbluefox » 26 Jun 2019, 09:50

Let's face it, the Metropolitan media don't like Boris and his views on Brexit and are constantly looking to discredit him. It does not help his cause amongst the left wing media that he is white, wealthy, privileged and Eton educated.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Stephen » 26 Jun 2019, 10:23

barney wrote:
25 Jun 2019, 18:26
I honestly believe that he would have been better off to front it out and said, yep, we had a bit of a row.
People do occasionally.
Trying to deflect the issue leaves questions.
I personally feel what happens in his and anyone else's private life is no one else's business. Would the media have been interested if he wasn't in the running for PM....possibly not, or at most, news one day chip wrapper the next. No one was hurt or murdered so I don't blame him for avoiding personal questions. I'm sure there are plenty of skeletons in the cupboards of most MP's and ministers.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 26 Jun 2019, 10:34

oldbluefox wrote:
26 Jun 2019, 09:50
Let's face it, the Metropolitan media don't like Boris and his views on Brexit and are constantly looking to discredit him. It does not help his cause amongst the left wing media that he is white, wealthy, privileged and Eton educated.
and a buffoon :lolno:

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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 26 Jun 2019, 11:29

It always amuses me when folk deride public figures as idiots or buffoons.

If we look at the facts, Johnson is an elected MP, ex mayor of London twice (reelected) again elected as MP, Telegraph columnist earning 700 k a year.

Devicive yes.
Outspoken yes.
Self promoting yes.

But idiot and buffoon?
Highly unlikely.

Caveat. I am not a Johnson fan.


Ray Scully
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Re: Brexit

Post by Ray Scully » 26 Jun 2019, 11:47

barney wrote:
26 Jun 2019, 11:29
It always amuses me when folk deride public figures as idiots or buffoons.

If we look at the facts, Johnson is an elected MP, ex mayor of London twice (reelected) again elected as MP, Telegraph columnist earning 700 k a year.

Devicive yes.
Outspoken yes.
Self promoting yes.

But idiot and buffoon?
Highly unlikely.

Caveat. I am not a Johnson fan.
Barney, Please can I add duplicitous to your list

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barney
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Re: Brexit

Post by barney » 26 Jun 2019, 12:04

Absolutely Ray.
Add anything that is factual.

My point really is, as repugnant as Johnson is to me, he achievements dictate that he is anything but an idiot.

I've met lots of idiots in my life as no doubt you have.
None to the best of my knowledge have risen to the job if Prime Minister.

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