Brexit

[Mervyn and Trish]

And what the Irish don't get is if we don't get a trade deal and crash out there will be a hard border.

[towny44]

We currently trade all over the world, via our EU membership. By leaving the EU we are cutting ourselves off from more than just Europe.

Jack, presumably this is what the transition period is for, to enable us to agree trade deals with these countries ourselves.
Now I know you are going to say that these can take years, but realistically as we run a deficit with most countries, they will be eager to agree the same deals as currently exist, and even those we have a surplus with will not want to upset their middle class voters who are the ones presumably buying our Jaguars, Land Rovers and our luxury goods.

[towny44]

And what the Irish don't get is if we don't get a trade deal and crash out there will be a hard border.

Correct Merv and the DUP are going to use this to bash the Irish govt and get them to demand that Sinn Fein return to to the power sharing agreement, or else.

[Jack Staff]

We currently trade all over the world, via our EU membership. By leaving the EU we are cutting ourselves off from more than just Europe.

Jack, presumably this is what the transition period is for, to enable us to agree trade deals with these countries ourselves.
Now I know you are going to say that these can take years, but realistically as we run a deficit with most countries, they will be eager to agree the same deals as currently exist, and even those we have a surplus with will not want to upset their middle class voters who are the ones presumably buying our Jaguars, Land Rovers and our luxury goods.

Yes, that's right.
But where you go wrong is that the current (EU) deal we have with these countries is for them to trade with whole of the EU. A far more attractive deal for them than trading with the 10 times smaller (pop.) UK alone. We will not have the same deal with them after Brexit, no matter how much cutting and pasting our government says it is going to do.
JLR are no exactly thrilled by Brexit either https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-jagua ... KKCN1BI1WH

[Jack Staff]

I would add, a project we (the populace) were unaware we were signing up for in the first place (or would you also dispute this and re-write history)

Thank you Barney, for crediting me with some kind of Orwellian Ministry of truth abilities, but I am afraid it is the Quitlings who are putting out this propaganda to fool the Beleavers of today.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... referenfum
http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/we-wer ... oodwinked/
http://www.harvard-digital.co.uk/euro/pamphlet.htm

[barney]

Is it me, or have I lost the plot? (I think I lost the plot with Brexit ages ago!)

I was of the understanding that Barnier, et al, were conducting the Brexit negotiations on behalf of ALL the EU member states - now the Irish Government are sticking their oar in and saying that they will veto trade negotiations unless Britain stays in the single market and Customs Union and that there is no "hard" border (according to BBC news this morning).

If this is a sign of things to come then there will never be an agreement of the agreement, so we might as pack up now and stop wasting everyone's time, and taxpayer's money.

You are 100% correct David in the summary that ANY existing country has the ultimate right of veto on any deal, as does the EU parliament led by Verhofstadt.

They all have their internal problems and people to keep sweet.
Merkel is now trying to cobble together a government and willing to deal with anyone except the AFD
Ireland looks like it could again go to the polls as it's a fragile coalition looks like collapsing.
Spain has the Catalan problem.
Italy and Greece are skint.
The Visegrad coalition are taking the irritant mantle from the UK.
All is not rosy in the EU. A small bit of research shows this, no matter what our left wing press say.

The odds on getting agreement by all 27 plus the EU MEPs is remote in my opinion, which is why the UK should just leave and then start trade talks, which is probably what will happen.
Normally the reason it takes so long to deal with the EU is because they need to bully and bribe the member states to agree anything.
They all have their own agendas.
It took ten years to get a trade deal with Canada. Australia and the USA did one in ten months.

The EU is a protectionist racket, geared towards the benefit of Germany (exports) and France (CAP)
The smaller countries hang on to the coat tails, picking up scraps and hand outs.

[Jack Staff]

So we all seem to be in agreement for once.
We are heading for the cliff edge with no stopping.
Where we disagree is that some here think that the sunlit uplands are at the bottom.

[barney]

I would add, a project we (the populace) were unaware we were signing up for in the first place (or would you also dispute this and re-write history)

Thank you Barney, for crediting me with some kind of Orwellian Ministry of truth abilities, but I am afraid it is the Quitlings who are putting out this propaganda to fool the Beleavers of today.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... referenfum
http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/we-wer ... oodwinked/
http://www.harvard-digital.co.uk/euro/pamphlet.htm

Fair comment Jack, I've read through most of that but still haven't found the section that told us we would be paying in about £9 billion a year more than we would be taking out or subsidising half of Eastern Europe.
The section on adding 3 million plus to our population over ten years also seems to be hard to find.

[Jack Staff]

Fair comment Jack, I've read through most of that but still haven't found the section that told us we would be paying in about £9 billion a year more than we would be taking out or subsidising half of Eastern Europe.
The section on adding 3 million plus to our population over ten years also seems to be hard to find.

Yeah, they also missed the bit about the fall of the Berlin wall and Leicester winning the league.

[towny44]

We currently trade all over the world, via our EU membership. By leaving the EU we are cutting ourselves off from more than just Europe.

Jack, presumably this is what the transition period is for, to enable us to agree trade deals with these countries ourselves.
Now I know you are going to say that these can take years, but realistically as we run a deficit with most countries, they will be eager to agree the same deals as currently exist, and even those we have a surplus with will not want to upset their middle class voters who are the ones presumably buying our Jaguars, Land Rovers and our luxury goods.

Yes, that's right.
But where you go wrong is that the current (EU) deal we have with these countries is for them to trade with whole of the EU. A far more attractive deal for them than trading with the 10 times smaller (pop.) UK alone. We will not have the same deal with them after Brexit, no matter how much cutting and pasting our government says it is going to do.
JLR are no exactly thrilled by Brexit either https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-jagua ... KKCN1BI1WH

Jack, this is where you're thinking is flawed, if any of the countries involved already have significant trade with us they will not want to lose it, if they don't then it hardly matters. As for our exports to these countries it is likely that these, even under the current rules, will be subject to some sort of tariff since they are likely to be luxury goods.
Somewhat similarly there are a number of EU countries that will be desparate to maintain their exports to the UK and I can envisage some major bust ups with any other country that tries to block a reasonable trade deal.

[oldbluefox]

Interesting comment from Roberto Azevedo, WTO boss...................
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-will- ... s-10632803

[Jack Staff]

Jack, this is where you're thinking is flawed, if any of the countries involved already have significant trade with us they will not want to lose it, if they don't then it hardly matters. As for our exports to these countries it is likely that these, even under the current rules, will be subject to some sort of tariff since they are likely to be luxury goods.
Somewhat similarly there are a number of EU countries that will be desparate to maintain their exports to the UK and I can envisage some major bust ups with any other country that tries to block a reasonable trade deal.

John, I think we can leave this one now as you seem convinced that the UK is an equal to the EU (in trade terms to other countries), I am convinced the UK is a 10% component. Other than that we seem pretty close.
The truth of course remains to be seen and will come out somewhere in between.
I totally agree "some major bust ups with any other country that tries to block a reasonable trade deal" which is why I believe it is better to be in the 'big gang' picking on the spotty kid, rather than being that 'Tommy no mates'.

[Jack Staff]

Interesting comment from Roberto Azevedo, WTO boss...................
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-will- ... s-10632803

A lot of water has gone under the bridge in the last year.

[oldbluefox]

August 2017 close enough.......................
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -thinktank
Rather than being bullied by the rest of the EU, walking away would not be the disaster some are making it out to be. It's not only the UK who would be affected. At the moment it's just a game of brinkmanship.

[Jack Staff]

August 2017 close enough.......................
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -thinktank
Rather than being bullied by the rest of the EU, walking away would not be the disaster some are making it out to be. It's not only the UK who would be affected. At the moment it's just a game of brinkmanship.

I wouldn't put too much faith in the Institute for Economic Affairs, unless you want to sell cigarettes and you have lots of money to give them. Funnily enough their recent funding is not available.

Remember what The Leave Alliance thought about the WTO option? http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128
... and Australia isn't too keen either http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42121442

Seems to me the UK is saying something like "We're going down, and unless you give us what we want we'll take you down too"

[oldbluefox]

Seems to me the UK is saying something like "We're going down, and unless you give us what we want we'll take you down too"

Or rather..................
Seems to me the EU is saying something like "We're going down, and unless you give us what we want we'll take you down too"

[Ray Scully]

Two weeks vacation from Friday. No TV will be watched, well apart from the football, no newspapers, a blessed relief from all the shenanigans

[Jack Staff]

"It is thus quite a feat for the Brexiters to turn their most sympathetic ally into the scapegoat for their own most egregious failures. They’ve pulled it off by utilising their most remarkable skill: sheer incompetence."

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/the- ... -1.3306660

[towny44]

"It is thus quite a feat for the Brexiters to turn their most sympathetic ally into the scapegoat for their own most egregious failures. They’ve pulled it off by utilising their most remarkable skill: sheer incompetence."

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/the- ... -1.3306660

Jack, no one would expect an Irish times article about Brexit's impact on the Irish border to provide an objective assessment, except perhaps you.

[Jack Staff]

Jack, no one would expect an Irish times article about Brexit's impact on the Irish border to provide an objective assessment, except perhaps you.

... and the Irish. Who have a veto on negotiations.

[barney]

If it wasn't the Irish using their veto, it would be the Lithuanians, or the Maltese, or the Wallonions or Verhofstadt our of sheer spite.
That is exactly the reason why the UK is better off out.
I'll be delighted when we are in a position to tread our own path.

The EU 'project' can then carry on, full steam ahead without the British irritant, and all the Quislings can have the option of staying in an independent UK or moving to their much beloved EU.

Bye Jack enjoy Berlin - have fun

[Jack Staff]

I'll be delighted when we are in a position to tread our own path.

It's going to be a very lonely path. The Brexiter attitude is managing to alienate every friend we ever had.

[towny44]

I'll be delighted when we are in a position to tread our own path.

It's going to be a very lonely path. The Brexiter attitude is managing to alienate every friend we ever had.

You keep posting similar comments Jack but rarely back them up with hard facts. The UK Govt have never been particularly popular with the EU since Maastricht and Lisbon, and more especially our opt out clause for the euro, so we will never win a popularity contest their. But where all these other ex friends who we have fallen out with since Brexit.

[Jack Staff]

I'll be delighted when we are in a position to tread our own path.

It's going to be a very lonely path. The Brexiter attitude is managing to alienate every friend we ever had.

You keep posting similar comments Jack but rarely back them up with hard facts. The UK Govt have never been particularly popular with the EU since Maastricht and Lisbon, and more especially our opt out clause for the euro, so we will never win a popularity contest their. But where all these other ex friends who we have fallen out with since Brexit.

I actually just started to compile a list for you John, before realising it was just getting stupid. It would be much easier for us all if you told us what country(ies) is going to come riding over the hill on a white charger to save us.
Remember, we are not just losing our trade deal with the EU. We are losing our trade deals with all the worlds countries.
Brexiters say we will just get new ones, so you tell me who you expect to come to our aid.

[Ray Scully]

I'll be delighted when we are in a position to tread our own path.

It's going to be a very lonely path. The Brexiter attitude is managing to alienate every friend we ever had.

You keep posting similar comments Jack but rarely back them up with hard facts. The UK Govt have never been particularly popular with the EU since Maastricht and Lisbon, and more especially our opt out clause for the euro, so we will never win a popularity contest their. But where all these other ex friends who we have fallen out with since Brexit.

I actually just started to compile a list for you John, before realising it was just getting stupid. It would be much easier for us all if you told us what country(ies) is going to come riding over the hill on a white charger to save us.
Remember, we are not just losing our trade deal with the EU. We are losing our trade deals with all the worlds countries.
Brexiters say we will just get new ones, so you tell me who you expect to come to our aid.

Yip! I would also be interested in seeing such a list.