Sport of Kings

[Onelife]

Hi Pompey, what price did you get about Daryz? I think it was trading around the 14/1 mark a couple of weeks ago.

As for Minnie Hauk’s next race I can’t see it running at Ascot unless some of the notable runners get withdrawn…Aiden O Brian won’t risk this horse unless it’s going to be a walk in the park…even so I wouldn't be taking any anti post bets as I doubt it will run even with withdrawals.

[Portsmouth]

I should have backed Daryz weeks ago but just didn't get around to it.....I've heard of someone who got 33/1
Just had a small bet £2 e/way and got the starting price 12/1 but I'm happy with that.
I think the next big race is probably the Cesarewitch ....not going to bet on this one.
Sent in my ABC last night

[Onelife]

Onelifes’s Saturday Bankers

Having endured a run of bad luck this past few weeks I’ve decided to postpone my monthly donations to Republic UK…

Only backing two this weekend…

Dark Moon Rising…York 5.05

This looks an idea race in which he can recover some of his old form, dropping down in grade and a track that generally brings out the best in him. £9-win £3 place.

Turning to the Cesarewitch Newmarket 3.40... I’m going for Dawn Rising £8 win with a £2 win double on both.

A very open handicap with any number of possible contenders…but Dawn Rising has run well in this type of race before and has dropped to a favourable weight….top jockey onboard.

[Portsmouth]

Yes you are correct, he likes York and at 14/1 tonight I can see his price dropping a bit more.

Can hardly believe that Dawn Rising is now favourite...hope you backed him today ( Friday ) at 10/1 before the price drop
He has certainly got some followers....and the drop in weight helps +the booking of Oisin Murphy shows intent to win.
However he has to overcome one other thing....stats say ...
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Cesarewitch Handicap despite multiple attempts:
Galileo (0 Wins from 25 runners)
And who is Dawn Risings sire ???? yes you guessed right Still you never know...he is a good horse and stats aren't always right.

My choice would have been Winter Fog 20/1 yesterday but has now gone down to 14/1 and last years second Manxman
Not expecting a win but hopeful for a place...but I won't be making a bet

[Onelife]

Onelifes’s Saturday Bankers

Having endured a run of bad luck this past few weeks I’ve decided to postpone my monthly donations to Republic UK…

Only backing two this weekend…

Dark Moon Rising…York 5.05

This looks an idea race in which he can recover some of his old form, dropping down in grade and a track that generally brings out the best in him. £9-win £3 place.

Turning to the Cesarewitch Newmarket 3.40... I’m going for Dawn Rising £8 win with a £2 win double on both.

A very open handicap with any number of possible contenders…but Dawn Rising has run well in this type of race before and has dropped to a favourable weight….top jockey onboard.

The drought continues…Dawn Rising 2nd 7/1

Dark Moon Rising... 2nd 9/1,,,beaten a neck...so what do we do in theses situations

[oldbluefox]

...so what do we do in theses situations

Donate your money to Foxy'scruisefund.co.uk. All donations gratefully received.

[Portsmouth]

The drought continues…Dawn Rising 2nd 7/1

Dark Moon Rising... 2nd 9/1,,,beaten a neck...
so what do we do in theses situations Stop being such a crybaby ! Get a grip !

I kind of told you that Dawn Rising wasn't going to win ( ref : those stats ) but wonder why you didn't you copy what you did on your bet on Dark Moon Rising and also go for a place. At least you will have recovered some of that £9 with that £3 place you put on Dark Moon
Also I've noticed with the horses you select they always seem to go down in price & can't help wondering why if you're sure of your choice you don't bet on them the day before and get better odds but maybe you can't get to the bookies with such a lot to do on your big estate

I saw that Gstaad & Distant Storm got beaten in the Dewhurst today.

[Onelife]

Hi Pompey…Your… “ Stop being such a crybaby ! Get a grip !” was the highlight of my day.

I’ll take your comment ‘that most horses I tip shorten up in price’ as a great compliment…Indeed, it is quite often the case that many get backed into fav form much bigger odds…. this reflects my good knowledge of form analyse ..that being said as we both know this doesn’t always produce the form winners.

With regard to taking early odds the day before, this isn’t always available at most high street bookies…especially on the smaller races. You can get early odds ‘the night before’ if you have a betting account but this isn’t something that appeals to me as you need to have ‘cast iron’ discipline if you don’t want to end up chasing your money.

Your question regarding EW betting is something where I fall short in my betting strategy…if I backed all the horses to an equal ew stake I’m sure I would break even on most of the horses I have tipped up…but being an estate owner with surplus money to burn I tend to bet win only, especially if the odds are less than 10/1…Yes a 5/1 placed horse would return my stake but horse racing is my main hobby and whilst I can see the logic in betting EW I bet with my judgment in that they will all be winners…with of course the fall back that for a man of my means £20 to £40 a week isn’t going to leave me not being able to pay the gardners and house staf….besides, I need to have a steady flow of losses to keep my good mate Foxy begging for money.

[Portsmouth]

Just noticed....that old friend of yours is running later today
Probably too late for a bet think it was 20/1 but it's now 8/1 with Bet Fred.......Epictetus Goodwood 16:47
Won't win....(so I say ) but it could sneak in to make 3rd place
just like his last race when he was beaten by Cerulean Bay who is also running again

[Onelife]

Just noticed....that old friend of yours is running later today
Probably too late for a bet think it was 20/1 but it's now 8/1 with Bet Fred.......Epictetus Goodwood 16:47
Won't win....(so I say ) but it could sneak in to make 3rd place
just like his last race when he was beaten by Cerulean Bay who is also running again

I’m just off on the Yellow Peril to put a bet on it £5 win £3 place

[Portsmouth]

Did that really happen that carthorse under performed in a way that I didn't anticipate....over 11 lengths adrift from the winner
One again thrashed by Cerulean Bay....I was silly enough to actually think it could grab a place again
Billy Loughnane would have done a better job like he did in September

So I see that Epictetus is entered in the Balmoral Handicap on the18th....however Cerulean Bay is also entered @14/1
Epictetus is @ 66/1 or @100/1 Ladbrokes. Now that's a bargain as with those odds you can save a bit of cash on them.
Also a horse I remember EBTs Guard is also in the running @ 25/1
Native Warrior may be favourite @6/1 but his last 3 wins have been 7f not a mile

[Onelife]

I can see why you would call Epictetus a carthorse on that/recent runs but having won a group 3 race he is far from that description imo. If we are looking for an excuse perhaps the trainers recent form is where we should be looking?. I see he is entered up on the 17th and 18th but it’s hard to envisage him running in either after that performance… but if he does then i will of course be backing it If a miracle should happen and he turns the form around then his trainer is going to have to come up with a pretty good reason for improvement should he not want to get referred to the (BHA).

Whilst it cost me £8 I took the scenic 14-mile bike ride on the way home which was worth every penny…so what do we do in these situations…

Keep peddling

[Onelife]

Saturday Bankers

With some hefty prize money up for grabs at Ascot tomorrow it’s not surprising that it has attracted notably runners from all corners of the UK and further afield.

From a racing perspective I’ll be hoping it’s Vive la France in both the 2.05 and 3.25 as I’ve gone for…

2.05 Lazzat £5 win (4/1) looks a solid player with both class and form to be there at the finish.

3.25 Factual Cheval £5 win (16/1) With the likes of Field of Gold and other notably runners this is a speculative option that might just out run his odds…Not sure what the jockey was doing in his last run but both jockey and trainer got the ride/race tactics dreadfully wrong imo.

I’ve also backed

2.45 Bedtime Story £5 win (10/1) promised a lot but yet to deliver on the big stage... but I can see this one running well.

4.40 Shout £5 win (11/2) If he turns up in the same form as his last run then he’s going to be hard to beat.

50p win lucky 15.

Total £27.50

[oldbluefox]

Oh no!!!!
Good luck Keefy. We hope for good news this time.

[Portsmouth]

Hi Onelife,
Think your choice of Lazzat in the sprint is a good one although he will probably start favourite
Also think you have a good chance with Shout & hope Bedtime Story 11/1 at the moment, runs as well as you think she will do
I was considering Facteur Cheval myself but was kind of put off when I read what part owner Barry Irwin said.
He likes Ascot which is a plus & he had a terrible last race & trainer Reynier totally blamed the jockey but it took a lot out of the horse
Irwin said " In my mind I question is he really ready for it, but I’ve asked Jerome and he is giving me all the right signals.
I do wonder though if he has done enough to be ready for a race like this.”
So that's whats put me off but you have to respect him as he was second in this race last year & the year before

It's hard to oppose Trawlerman in the first race....just wish there were three or four other runners
For the second race surely its the favourite Words of Truth.
I'll make some choices a bit later

[Portsmouth]

Ok so these are my bets for the big races today at Ascot.
1:30 Words of Truth wll be favourite but maybe Siren Suit can cause an upset
2:05 Lazzat will be favourite but I'm going against Onelifes pick with Montassib
2:45 Kalpana will probably start favourite her trainer says she will win....
would be my pick but odds are too short so I'll go Quisisanna as an alternative
3:25 Docklands is my choice
4:05 torn between Economics & Calandagan not sure yet
4:40 the Balmoral last month Onelifes choice Shout beat EBTs Guard (3rd) but I'm still going for EBTs Guard

so because I've picked six races I'll probably try with a couple of lucky15 or a patents at about 10p
However still not sure if I'm actually going to make the bookies as I have something else on .

[Onelife]

Hi Pompey, I think it was a day in which throwing the form book out of the window would have been the best betting strategy… what with a 200/1 and 100/1 shots winning. I thought EBT’s Guard ran a cracking race, especially after having had a hard season.

Well, the jumps season starts proper next Saturday and I for one will be hoping for a change of luck…I just hope the wife doesn’t notice that her gold bracelet has gone missing.

So, what do we do in these situations...

Keep quiet

[oldbluefox]

At this rate I think I think the butler's future is looking shaky!!!!

[Portsmouth]

Hi Onelife, I managed to get to the bookies about 15 minutes before the 2:40 & as I said, did a lucky 15 for the last four races
good job I missed the first three as my 2 choices were rubbish
I made the mistake of going win only, should have gone e/way for a return on Quisisana & EBTs Guard...went for Economics instead of Calandagan who I should have picked. As you say the bookies must have been jumping for joy with those results.

Now about that bracelet....are you sure it's gold ...maybe it's really gold plated

[Onelife]

At this rate I think I think the butler's future is looking shaky!!!!

How could i do that...She's been looking after my every need for 39 years

[Onelife]

Hi Onelife, I managed to get to the bookies about 15 minutes before the 2:40 & as I said, did a lucky 15 for the last four races
good job I missed the first three as my 2 choices were rubbish
I made the mistake of going win only, should have gone e/way for a return on Quisisana & EBTs Guard...went for Economics instead of Calandagan who I should have picked. As you say the bookies must have been jumping for joy with those results.

Now about that bracelet....are you sure it's gold ...maybe it's really gold plated

Naah! The door salesman assured me it was 18 carrot gold

[Portsmouth]

Well, the jumps season starts proper next Saturday

Maybe but there is also the Munster National at Limerick 4:15 today that looks interesting

[Onelife]

Onelifes Saturday bankers

With the ground at Doncaster turning into a bog it won’t be easy to find winners but as I don’t really fancy much at the premier Cheltenham meeting, I’ll take my chances.

Doncaster

1.30 Trilby - up in class but down in weight and on this ground might just get his head in front
£7 win

4.25 Savvy Victory – not the most consistent of horses combine with the fact that he is burdened with plenty of weight to carry it’s going to be hard going, that being said the trainer has his string of horses in good form so I’m blowing caution to the wind.
£8win £2 place

5.30 Lir Speciale - one that I’ve backed several times this season and yet to give me a return…tentative

£5-win

My one bet at Cheltenham is going to be 2.20 Three Card Brag..sure to stay the 3mile+ but has been known to clout a few on the way round, however if he manages to put in a clear round I can see this one running into a place.. at least

£6-win £2 place

[Portsmouth]

5.30 Lir Speciale - one that I’ve backed several times this season and yet to give me a return…tentative
Just like Overlooked £0 wins
Just like Purosangue £0 wins
Just like Sean £0 wins
Just like Epictetus £0 wins :

Sorry Onelife, Just me being mean & teasing you

Oh redemption !! Lord Bertie at last won Lets have a party

[Onelife]

Hey! you miserable git...aren’t we supposed to be on the same side....for gawd sake don't give Foxy anymore ammunition