Current Affairs

[Mervyn and Trish]

I think it's a rther moving target at the moment!

I'd stay put if I were you.

[barney]

I think it's a rther moving target at the moment!

I'd stay put if I were you.

As Sir K said, they are clearly making it up as they go.
Two weeks ago, no loosening until stage three, this week, well who knows?
I agree with the quarantine but it should have been a month ago and continued until the infection rate was nearly zero.
I’ve totally lost confidence in this government.
Another 359 deaths announced today.
Hardly in Massive decline is it?

[Manoverboard]

.... I agree with the quarantine but it should have been a month ago and continued until the infection rate was nearly zero.
I’ve totally lost confidence in this government ....

This time we are very much in agreement

[Gill W]

We went into the lockdown too late and we're trying coming out too early.
The deaths are still worryingly high. For the last week or so the rolling 7 days average has been a plateau rather than a drop.

[towny44]

I think it's a rther moving target at the moment!

I'd stay put if I were you.

I must admit the science is not making my understanding of this quarantine issue any clearer. Vallance and Whitty clearly said today that quarantine is needed when travellers from countries with higher infection rates come to the UK when ours is lower. Since our infection rate is the highest in Europe why is there no blanket exemption for travellers from all EU countries?

[david63]

Since our infection rate is the highest in Europe why is there no blanket exemption for travellers from all EU countries?

Here we go again - using common sense and logic

[Mervyn and Trish]

The trouble is the numbers are not that simple. Per head of the population our number of confirmed cases and number of deaths are not the highest in the EU. And as far as confirmed cases are concerned, or even deaths with a confirmed Covid diagnosis, despite the criticism from the opposition, with the sole exception of Germany, the number of tests we've carried out is far more than any other EU country. More tests means more confirmed cases.

[oldbluefox]

Thank you Merv.
How do you compare the performance of New Zealand with a population of 4.9 million and a population density of 18 per square kilometre with UK with its 66.6 million population and population density of 281 per square kilometre? Is everybody declaring all elements in its performance figures and is every country being totally honest?
When you compare Covid deaths on a population density basis the picture changes considerably notwithstanding this number of deaths does reflect a tragic story which nobody can deny.

[david63]

Standby either Thursday or Friday when the media will be having a field day when the number of deaths reaches 40,000

[Mervyn and Trish]

They seemed to be having one a couple of days ago when my news feed had quotes from different news organisations claiming three wildly different definitive figures. As I quoted some time ago from a scientific paper it will be months before we can get accurate and internationally comparable figures.

[Gill W]

The trouble is the numbers are not that simple. Per head of the population our number of confirmed cases and number of deaths are not the highest in the EU. And as far as confirmed cases are concerned, or even deaths with a confirmed Covid diagnosis, despite the criticism from the opposition, with the sole exception of Germany, the number of tests we've carried out is far more than any other EU country. More tests means more confirmed cases.

The problem with tests is that they are including tests done and tests posted out in the headline figure. They also count the nose swab and the throat swab as two separate tests. The amount of actual people tested has been missing for some days now. We just don’t know how many people are being tested

[towny44]

They seemed to be having one a couple of days ago when my news feed had quotes from different news organisations claiming three wildly different definitive figures. As I quoted some time ago from a scientific paper it will be months before we can get accurate and internationally comparable figures.

I doubt we will ever know each countries true covid19 deaths, this is a lottery no one wants to win, but as usual the UK is trying to be as scrupulously honest as we can be, and it looks like we will be towards the head of the leaderboard whichever method is used.

[Gill W]

Standby either Thursday or Friday when the media will be having a field day when the number of deaths reaches 40,000

Sadly, that’s not the full picture.

Based on the latest excess death figures from the ONS, the FT’s cautious estimate was 64500 as of yesterday.

[Gill W]

Thank you Merv.
How do you compare the performance of New Zealand with a population of 4.9 million and a population density of 18 per square kilometre with UK with its 66.6 million population and population density of 281 per square kilometre? Is everybody declaring all elements in its performance figures and is every country being totally honest?
When you compare Covid deaths on a population density basis the picture changes considerably notwithstanding this number of deaths does reflect a tragic story which nobody can deny.

People aren’t evenly spread out over the country though. Most New Zealander’s live in cities and urban areas. New Zealand did well because they locked down early. Rather like Greece, including densely populated Athens.

I don’t think we can mitigate our death figure - it’s horrific, which ever way we look at it

[towny44]

The trouble is the numbers are not that simple. Per head of the population our number of confirmed cases and number of deaths are not the highest in the EU. And as far as confirmed cases are concerned, or even deaths with a confirmed Covid diagnosis, despite the criticism from the opposition, with the sole exception of Germany, the number of tests we've carried out is far more than any other EU country. More tests means more confirmed cases.

The problem with tests is that they are including tests done and tests posted out in the headline figure. They also count the nose swab and the throat swab as two separate tests. The amount of actual people tested has been missing for some days now. We just don’t know how many people are being tested

But in all honesty Gill does the number of tests now matter?
We have surplus capacity and for the swab test its pointless testing anyone without any symptoms.
As for the antibody tests, my understanding is that apart from NHS and health care workers, the main emphasis will be centred on detailed trials to try and guesstimate the number of people who might have had covid19, which will help in our assessments of possible herd immunity, but there would need to be a lot more trials done to determine if this provides any lasting immunity.
It just seems that some of the media are incapable of understanding what is actually being done, or they are deliberately trying to create confusion in order to undermine the govt.

[screwy]

The media are incapable of understanding anything,other than pushing out anti government bias.

[Gill W]

The trouble is the numbers are not that simple. Per head of the population our number of confirmed cases and number of deaths are not the highest in the EU. And as far as confirmed cases are concerned, or even deaths with a confirmed Covid diagnosis, despite the criticism from the opposition, with the sole exception of Germany, the number of tests we've carried out is far more than any other EU country. More tests means more confirmed cases.

The problem with tests is that they are including tests done and tests posted out in the headline figure. They also count the nose swab and the throat swab as two separate tests. The amount of actual people tested has been missing for some days now. We just don’t know how many people are being tested

But in all honesty Gill does the number of tests now matter?
We have surplus capacity and for the swab test its pointless testing anyone without any symptoms.
As for the antibody tests, my understanding is that apart from NHS and health care workers, the main emphasis will be centred on detailed trials to try and guesstimate the number of people who might have had covid19, which will help in our assessments of possible herd immunity, but there would need to be a lot more trials done to determine if this provides any lasting immunity.
It just seems that some of the media are incapable of understanding what is actually being done, or they are deliberately trying to create confusion in order to undermine the govt.

I don’t keep bringing up the amount of tests.

I only respond to the people who keep bringing it up.

However, I believe we should know the number of people that are being tested ( which is not the same as the amount of tests administered). This information has mysteriously disappeared from the Dept of Health’s daily figures.

[oldbluefox]

People aren’t evenly spread out over the country though. Most New Zealander’s live in cities and urban areas. New Zealand did well because they locked down early. Rather like Greece, including densely populated Athens.

I don’t think we can mitigate our death figure - it’s horrific, which ever way we look at it

But if you look at population density in their cities we have a higher population density. Try a comparison between eg Auckland and Birmingham. The higher density gives a greater chance of the virus spreading than if the population is less tightly packed so it is a fallacy to start comparing one country's figures with another unless you are comparing like with like. Not that that would make any difference to our media.

Nobody could argue with your final comment - it is horrific and demonstrates what a deadly disease this is.

[oldbluefox]

No Comment!!!!

101555712_3211768985528671_2302778356774469632_n.jpg

[Onelife]

People aren’t evenly spread out over the country though. Most New Zealander’s live in cities and urban areas. New Zealand did well because they locked down early. Rather like Greece, including densely populated Athens.

I don’t think we can mitigate our death figure - it’s horrific, which ever way we look at it

But if you look at population density in their cities we have a higher population density. Try a comparison between eg Auckland and Birmingham. The higher density gives a greater chance of the virus spreading than if the population is less tightly packed so it is a fallacy to start comparing one country's figures with another unless you are comparing like with like. Not that that would make any difference to our media.

Nobody could argue with your final comment - it is horrific and demonstrates what a deadly disease this is.

And if you look at it another way Birmingham probably has a much higher density of Black/Asian people than Auckland or in deed many other European cities who by all accounts seem more susceptible to catching/dieing from this deadly virus.

[towny44]

The problem with tests is that they are including tests done and tests posted out in the headline figure. They also count the nose swab and the throat swab as two separate tests. The amount of actual people tested has been missing for some days now. We just don’t know how many people are being tested

But in all honesty Gill does the number of tests now matter?
We have surplus capacity and for the swab test its pointless testing anyone without any symptoms.
As for the antibody tests, my understanding is that apart from NHS and health care workers, the main emphasis will be centred on detailed trials to try and guesstimate the number of people who might have had covid19, which will help in our assessments of possible herd immunity, but there would need to be a lot more trials done to determine if this provides any lasting immunity.
It just seems that some of the media are incapable of understanding what is actually being done, or they are deliberately trying to create confusion in order to undermine the govt.

I don’t keep bringing up the amount of tests.

I only respond to the people who keep bringing it up.

However, I believe we should know the number of people that are being tested ( which is not the same as the amount of tests administered). This information has mysteriously disappeared from the Dept of Health’s daily figures.

Why Gill?
We now know that anyone who needs a test can have one immediately, check the website if you need proof, all those tested positive should now have all their potential contacts traced, and they should all self isolate and the contacts seek a test if they display symptoms.
There needs to be more clarity on how effective the track & trace is, or at least some data on those that have been traced and asked to self isolate.
However it is the number of positive tests that is important, not how many negative tests were also done.

[Manoverboard]

And if you look at it another way Birmingham probably has a much higher density of Black/Asian people than Auckland or in deed many other European cities who by all accounts seem more susceptible to catching/dieing from this deadly virus.

Aukland is actually awash with folk from different ethnic backgrounds, albeit not the same ' mix ' as in Birmingham UK.

[david63]

Aukland is actually awash with folk from different ethnic backgrounds, albeit not the same ' mix ' as in Birmingham UK.

I was just about to make that point but the majority will be Māori and I am not sure if they fall into the Black/Asian category. There are also many Chinese and South Koreans in that part of New Zealand.

As for cities in New Zealand there are in effect only two, Auckland and Wellington, the others are more akin to small towns in the UK

However it is the number of positive tests that is important, not how many negative tests were also done.

I also cannot get my head around the number of tests issue when all it is doing is saying who has the infection on any given day. Anyone can have a test today and become infected tomorrow (before the results are back). Because someone can become infected after having had a test then I believe that the number of tests is probably more relevant than the number of people being tested. If you have been tested once and found negative and then subsequently have another test and found positive are you counted in or out?

[Manoverboard]

Aukland is actually awash with folk from different ethnic backgrounds, albeit not the same ' mix ' as in Birmingham UK.

I was just about to make that point but the majority will be Māori and I am not sure if they fall into the Black/Asian category. There are also many Chinese and South Koreans in that part of New Zealand.

Maori would be of Polynesian origin I would venture to guess but where did they originate from if not Asia or Africa. I think they will be as susceptible as any ethnic grouping.

[Gill W]

But in all honesty Gill does the number of tests now matter?
We have surplus capacity and for the swab test its pointless testing anyone without any symptoms.
As for the antibody tests, my understanding is that apart from NHS and health care workers, the main emphasis will be centred on detailed trials to try and guesstimate the number of people who might have had covid19, which will help in our assessments of possible herd immunity, but there would need to be a lot more trials done to determine if this provides any lasting immunity.
It just seems that some of the media are incapable of understanding what is actually being done, or they are deliberately trying to create confusion in order to undermine the govt.

I don’t keep bringing up the amount of tests.

I only respond to the people who keep bringing it up.

However, I believe we should know the number of people that are being tested ( which is not the same as the amount of tests administered). This information has mysteriously disappeared from the Dept of Health’s daily figures.

Why Gill?
We now know that anyone who needs a test can have one immediately, check the website if you need proof, all those tested positive should now have all their potential contacts traced, and they should all self isolate and the contacts seek a test if they display symptoms.
There needs to be more clarity on how effective the track & trace is, or at least some data on those that have been traced and asked to self isolate.
However it is the number of positive tests that is important, not how many negative tests were also done.

It's people that count.

The last time that the number of people who were tested was available was on 22nd May


You will see from the slide that, although 140497 tests were carried out, only 80297 people were actually tested.

Since then, the amount of people tested has mysteriously disappeared and there is no clarification as to why.

There is now a lack of transparency in the testing process and the figures that are being provided, almost as if the government are trying to hide what is going on.......

https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/ ... 9-testing/