Current Affairs

[Mervyn and Trish]

We went into the lockdown too late and we're trying coming out too early.

Opinion, to which you are entitled, but not established fact.

They also count the nose swab and the throat swab as two separate tests.

You don't know that. It is speculation and it is not substantiated by the figures last time they published tests and people tested. One figure was not double the other.

The amount of actual people tested has been missing for some days now. We just don’t know how many people are being tested

We have never known the number of people in other countries either. We have no idea how robust their figures are. But on the headline figures the UK now has more tests in total and more per head of population than any other country in the EU. A lot more than most. Three times as many as France. And more tests means more cases identified means more deaths attributed to Covid. We were praising Germany when it was doing a third of the tests we are doing now.

Based on the latest excess death figures from the ONS, the FT’s cautious estimate was 64500 as of yesterday.

That is one of the several figures quoted by the media yesterday, each claiming theirs to be the one that mattered. I note you have chosen the highest. We do not have excess death figures for other countries yet and will not do so for some time.

Most New Zealander’s live in cities and urban areas.

New Zealand's total population is smaller than Scotland's. It is smaller than London's. New Zealand's largest city is Auckland with a population fewer than half a million. We have 11 cities bigger than that. Population density is a major factor.

New Zealand did well because they locked down early.

Opinion, to which you are entitled, but not established fact.

I don’t think we can mitigate our death figure - it’s horrific, which ever way we look at it

The one thing we can agree on. But not just here across the world. Seeking to cast blame based on opinion will not help that.

[Gill W]

People aren’t evenly spread out over the country though. Most New Zealander’s live in cities and urban areas. New Zealand did well because they locked down early. Rather like Greece, including densely populated Athens.

I don’t think we can mitigate our death figure - it’s horrific, which ever way we look at it

But if you look at population density in their cities we have a higher population density. Try a comparison between eg Auckland and Birmingham. The higher density gives a greater chance of the virus spreading than if the population is less tightly packed so it is a fallacy to start comparing one country's figures with another unless you are comparing like with like. Not that that would make any difference to our media.

Nobody could argue with your final comment - it is horrific and demonstrates what a deadly disease this is.

I wasn't making a comparision between countries, I was responding to the idea that the reason we've done so badly is because we are a small island with a large population.

[Mervyn and Trish]

People aren’t evenly spread out over the country though. Most New Zealander’s live in cities and urban areas. New Zealand did well because they locked down early. Rather like Greece, including densely populated Athens.

I don’t think we can mitigate our death figure - it’s horrific, which ever way we look at it

But if you look at population density in their cities we have a higher population density. Try a comparison between eg Auckland and Birmingham. The higher density gives a greater chance of the virus spreading than if the population is less tightly packed so it is a fallacy to start comparing one country's figures with another unless you are comparing like with like. Not that that would make any difference to our media.

Nobody could argue with your final comment - it is horrific and demonstrates what a deadly disease this is.

I wasn't making a comparision between countries, I was responding to the idea that the reason we've done so badly is because we are a small island with a large population.

Which doesn't suit your narrative that this is all the government's fault and we have handled it worse than anyone else, which you will back by selecting the worst figures you can find and discounting those that don't support you. Opinion to which you are entitled but not established fact, like a lot of your other opinions. Population density is scientifically established as a major factor.

[towny44]

Just adding to the population density debate, if we take England as a separate country it has a population density of 430 sq km, making it 2nd only to The Netherlands at 508. Both countries have much higher densities than any other European country with Germany at 240 and only Switzerland at 219 coming anywhere close. So not really surprising that the UK and Belgium have the worst records in Europe.

[Gill W]

But if you look at population density in their cities we have a higher population density. Try a comparison between eg Auckland and Birmingham. The higher density gives a greater chance of the virus spreading than if the population is less tightly packed so it is a fallacy to start comparing one country's figures with another unless you are comparing like with like. Not that that would make any difference to our media.

Nobody could argue with your final comment - it is horrific and demonstrates what a deadly disease this is.

I wasn't making a comparision between countries, I was responding to the idea that the reason we've done so badly is because we are a small island with a large population.

Which doesn't suit your narrative that this is all the government's fault and we have handled it worse than anyone else, which you will back by selecting the worst figures you can find and discounting those that don't support you. Opinion to which you are entitled but not established fact, like a lot of your other opinions. Population density is scientifically established as a major factor.

The government is responsible for our coronavirus response and must be held accountable for the outcome, good or bad.

I don't think I have said we have handled it worse than anyone else - it's not me who is constantly trying to draw direct comparisions with other countries, but if we must, I would say that USA and Brazil are up there on the leader board with us. Sweden haven't made a very good fist of it either.

You once again say that I present my opinions as established facts, yet in the very next sentence you present your own opinion as an established fact.

I am not going to make any comment on your accusations about 'narratives' and what you think I do. Making it personal never ends well so lets just stick to talking about current affairs

[Gill W]

Just adding to the population density debate, if we take England as a separate country it has a population density of 430 sq km, making it 2nd only to The Netherlands at 508. Both countries have much higher densities than any other European country with Germany at 240 and only Switzerland at 219 coming anywhere close. So not really surprising that the UK and Belgium have the worst records in Europe.

I'm confused now.

Is it acceptable or not to make comparisions to other countries?

Half the time it is, and the other half of the time it isn't!!

If it is acceptable - I'd just add South Korea - a densely populated country who have managed to keep cases low.

However, I suspect I will be told I can't mention South Korea as they aren't in Europe!

[Manoverboard]

.... However, I suspect I will be told I can't mention South Korea as they aren't in Europe!

South Korea, as you well know, are in an entirely different league to us.

They were able to effectively control their entire population and track 'n' trace them without any objection. That would be impossible to achieve here in the UK ... so basically you can't mention them because theirs is not a reasonable measure.

.

[Gill W]

Opinion, to which you are entitled, but not established fact.

We're all giving our opinion on here - I don't think it's necessary caveat everything we say with a disclaimer that it's opinion only

You don't know that. It is speculation and it is not substantiated by the figures last time they published tests and people tested. One figure was not double the other.

It has been widely reported and I have not seen a denial by the government. As shown in the slide I posted, the amount of people tested was approx 57% of the amount of tests done. It's never going to be exact - they also include they amount of test kits posted out in the 'tested figure'. If my memory serves me correctly, the government did admit to that one

We have never known the number of people in other countries either. We have no idea how robust their figures are. But on the headline figures the UK now has more tests in total and more per head of population than any other country in the EU. A lot more than most. Three times as many as France. And more tests means more cases identified means more deaths attributed to Covid. We were praising Germany when it was doing a third of the tests we are doing now.

I've made no comment about testing in other countries or how they are reported.

That is one of the several figures quoted by the media yesterday, each claiming theirs to be the one that mattered. I note you have chosen the highest. We do not have excess death figures for other countries yet and will not do so for some time.

As I don't know what the other figures are, I can't comment whether or not it was the highest. However, it is the figure that I trust the most, as it is based on the ONS figures for excess deaths. However, there is a time lag - the latest figure for from the ONS is now nearly two weeks old, so the FT provide their cautious estimate based on information reported since then. If you search, there are excess death figures available for some other nations. But I haven't been making direct comparisions - its just that we can't escape the fact that we have a huge amount of excess death in this country since the end of March

New Zealand's total population is smaller than Scotland's. It is smaller than London's. New Zealand's largest city is Auckland with a population fewer than half a million. We have 11 cities bigger than that. Population density is a major factor.

It may be a factor - but it's your opinion that it's a major factor - but as I said we don't have to caveat everything we say

[Gill W]

.... However, I suspect I will be told I can't mention South Korea as they aren't in Europe!

South Korea, as you well know, are in an entirely different league to us.

They were able to effectively control their entire population and track 'n' trace them without any objection. That would be impossible to achieve here in the UK ... so basically you can't mention them because theirs is not a reasonable measure.

.

I knew I wouldn't be allowed to mention South Korea

Thanks for doing the deletion

[Manoverboard]

.... However, I suspect I will be told I can't mention South Korea as they aren't in Europe!

South Korea, as you well know, are in an entirely different league to us.

They were able to effectively control their entire population and track 'n' trace them without any objection. That would be impossible to achieve here in the UK ... so basically you can't mention them because theirs is not a reasonable measure.

.

I knew I wouldn't be allowed to mention South Korea

Thanks for doing the deletion

Are you happy with 4008 ?

[Onelife]

We should do the city calculations by the amount of Curry houses ….Birmingham would win hands down…just saying!

[Manoverboard]

We should do the city calculations by the amount of Curry houses ….Birmingham would win hands down…just saying!

You obviously haven't been to Mumbai ... just saying !

[oldbluefox]

"Population density is a major factor"

It may be a factor - but it's your opinion that it's a major factor - but as I said we don't have to caveat everything we say

"Deprived areas tend to have higher population densities than richer areas therefore people in these areas are more likely to have contact with an infected person when they leave their homes for exercise, medical care, food shopping, etc. The higher the population density the more difficult maintaining social distancing is likely to be".

Prof Dave Gordon, Director of the Bristol Poverty Institute and Director of the Townsend Centre for International Poverty Research, University of Bristol

"Population density is a well-recognised association with the spread of respiratory pathogens".

Prof Keith Neal, Emeritus Professor of the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of Nottingham

It's hardly just an opinion, it's a major factor.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... privation/

[oldbluefox]

We should do the city calculations by the amount of Curry houses ….Birmingham would win hands down…just saying!

You've not been to Leicester!!!

[screwy]

Just adding to the population density debate, if we take England as a separate country it has a population density of 430 sq km, making it 2nd only to The Netherlands at 508. Both countries have much higher densities than any other European country with Germany at 240 and only Switzerland at 219 coming anywhere close. So not really surprising that the UK and Belgium have the worst records in Europe.

I'm confused now.

Is it acceptable or not to make comparisions to other countries?

Half the time it is, and the other half of the time it isn't!!

If it is acceptable - I'd just add South Korea - a densely populated country who have managed to keep cases low.

However, I suspect I will be told I can't mention South Korea as they aren't in Europe!

Neither Are we now thankfully.

[Onelife]

We should do the city calculations by the amount of Curry houses ….Birmingham would win hands down…just saying!

You obviously haven't been to Mumbai ... just saying !

They only count as a Curry House when they have scores on the doors...no wonder your prone to Deli Belly...just saying!

[towny44]

Just adding to the population density debate, if we take England as a separate country it has a population density of 430 sq km, making it 2nd only to The Netherlands at 508. Both countries have much higher densities than any other European country with Germany at 240 and only Switzerland at 219 coming anywhere close. So not really surprising that the UK and Belgium have the worst records in Europe.

I'm confused now.

Is it acceptable or not to make comparisions to other countries?

Half the time it is, and the other half of the time it isn't!!

If it is acceptable - I'd just add South Korea - a densely populated country who have managed to keep cases low.

However, I suspect I will be told I can't mention South Korea as they aren't in Europe!

Gill, you can certainly quote S Korea, and I totally accept their statistics, as regards covid19 performance are much better than ours, as is Germany and I have absolutely no idea why, as I am sure our govt. would also agree.
I also accept that some of our performances have been poor, but few can be in any attributed to lack of govt action. Care homes is maybe one exception but I have yet to see any proof that the govt. specifically rejected testing of care home patients who had covid symptoms prior to being discharged. However it does appear that PHE allowed hospitals to discharge as many patients as possible from hospital in the early stages of the pandemic, presumably to free up beds for the expected overwhelming of hospitals ICU beds. Fortunately this did not happen, but the media would been baying for blood if it had and we had not made every effort to free up as many beds as we could have.
As far as your preoccupation with testing is concerned, this just seems like mathematic semantics. When we had limited testing capacity this did hurt us, but the govt have made massive strides to increase our capacity, and now that we have excess capacity the focus should be on whether we are testing in the right areas, and for swab tests this is now universal, anyone with symptoms can request a test. As regards the antibody test, this must be done in rigorously managed trials to try and give us some idea of just how many might have had the disease and could possibly have some immunity.
So knowing how many are being tested, now seems to me irrelevant.

[Onelife]

We should do the city calculations by the amount of Curry houses ….Birmingham would win hands down…just saying!

You've not been to Leicester!!!

Mere hearsay until you can produce the statistics

[screwy]

Don’t like Curry..

[Manoverboard]

.... Gill, you can certainly quote S Korea ...

No she can't.

Gill knows it, I know it and now you know it .... see my posting #4007.

[Manoverboard]

Don’t like Curry..

I like ' PC World ' even less ..

[Mervyn and Trish]

The government is responsible for our coronavirus response and must be held accountable for the outcome, good or bad.

I don't disagree with that. What I did point out is that you never quote any example of how they have handled it well but leap on anything you can find that suggests they've handled it badly. For example your regularly voiced opinion that they locked down, in your view, too late. And your determination to undermine the fact that we have carried out more tests than anyone else.

You once again say that I present my opinions as established facts, yet in the very next sentence you present your own opinion as an established fact.

I presume you mean my reference to population density. There are numerous scientific references that support that.

[Onelife]

Don’t like Curry..

I only eat them as a laxative …how do you get on with eating Chinese screwy?

The ones you get served in a tray, not the chinese you eat whole

[Mervyn and Trish]

You don't know that. It is speculation and it is not substantiated by the figures last time they published tests and people tested. One figure was not double the other.

It has been widely reported and I have not seen a denial by the government. As shown in the slide I posted, the amount of people tested was approx 57% of the amount of tests done.

Again you have chosen selected data.

The figures on the gov.uk website, which took me less than a minute to find, up to 2nd June, show 1,770,451 cumulative tests in what they call Pillar 1 swab tests, carried out on 1,267,099 people. That is approx 72%.

Rather more than your chosen figure. A lot more than 50%. They don't need to deny it. The numbers are there on a public website.

It is Pillar 2 that are currently unavailable but it seems a reasonable assumption that the testing methodology is the same since they are also swab tests.

[towny44]

.... Gill, you can certainly quote S Korea ...

No she can't.

Gill knows it, I know it and now you know it .... see my posting #4007.

Since when did moderators views trump those of the retired proletariat?