barney wrote: 31 Jan 2019, 15:40
We are about 60% self-sufficient in food. Unless you want to go back to living off tinned Spam again and eating Woolton Pie then a our quality of life is going to be a lot, lot poorer in the future.
That statement is of course based on the assumption that the UK no longer buys anything from the EU countries and that they don't buy anything from us.
That is just too ridiculous for words.
Let me tell you about a factual situation.
Tomorrow, Mrs B is taking possession of a new lease on her second shop.
The first has been successful, despite all of the negativity in the press about High Streets.
Independents seem to be doing pretty well, well they do down here anyway.
Now, her main two suppliers for higher end fashion are from Sweden & Denmark.
She speaks to them regularly, and they have no qualms about continuing to supply a good customer who pays on time.
They don't envisage any problems after the end of March and if anything, are looking to continued expansion in the UK.
The bed wetters are entitled to their opinion, but that is all it is.
Opinion !
Something only becomes a fact after the event.
One question that everyone should ask themselves is that IF it will be the absolute disaster that some are predicting, why are EU migrants still coming to the UK?
According to Factcheck, 219,000 EU citizens came to the UK to live and work in the year up to June 2018.
Granted many also left, but the true figure is still a net gain of about 78,000.
Things will without doubt be different after we have left, but that was the whole blooming point of the vote in the first place.
The majority wanted change.
Change for the better or worse, only time will tell.
I have never said trade our trade with the EU would cease completely, just that it will be a lot less than it is now. It's one thing to buy from an EU state but selling into the Single Market is a lot more difficult.
If you're importing and selling on inside the UK then in future there will be customs declarations for every item in every consignment. This will involve a cost, one that is non-existent at the moment. For a container or two this won't be too big a problem but for smaller items of less than a couple of hundred pounds it can prove significant. On top of that there will be VAT on import, which can be reclaimed later if you're a registered business but it messes up your cash flow, plus any applicable tariffs which are not claimable. If you have to send back any goods for repair or replacement then there will be further costs.
Selling into the Single Market means having CE approval for what you are supplying. At the moment a company can self-certificate its products and apply its own CE label as a producer within the EU. If they can't self-certificate then the product will have to be tested and evaluated in an EU-aproved testing house. In the case of electronics this can cost several thousand pounds for each design. This means that only large volume items with a limited number of types will be worth selling. Together with the cost of customs declarations no item under several hundred pounds will be economically viable. Returning items for repair or refurbishment will be not worth considering. EU customers will also have to pay their own VAT on any imports which again affects their cash flows. No wonder that they are already seeking alternative supply arrangements.
There are many companies in the UK whose business model is only viable within the Single Market and these will diappear.
At the moment there is no EU red tape but after Brexit there will be piles of it. Selling and buying within the Single Market is a doddle.
Please remind me again of any advantages to this mess we have made for ourselves? I have been waiting over two and a half years and I still haven't received any answers.
