EU referendum - Stay or Leave?

[Silver_Shiney]

We need a lot (nearly half) of our food and we need a lot of energy. We do not survive on cheese and wine, at least I don't, and we can only pay for these imports by what we sell abroad. Personally my days of exporting 50% of our products to the EU are long past but I have the future of the younger generation to consider. We are only a big player because we are in the EU. The rest of the world has moved on in the last couple of generations and doesn't give two hoots about us.

...and there was me thinking that food importers only bought the stuff so they could sell it to wholesalers for a profit, who would sell it on to the supermarkets at a profit, who would sell it to me at a profit.

I also thought that most of the "energy" that comes in originated in Russia?

[Quizzical Bob]

Legally, after exit we would fall back onto WTO conditions which involve targets FFP.
How long do you think it would take to negotiate these new deals? At least 10 to 15 years are the best estimates. Any new deal with the EU would involve 27 parliaments none of whom would be feeling very generous or helpful towards us.

We need a lot (nearly half) of our food and we need a lot of energy. We do not survive on cheese and wine, at least I don't, and we can only pay for these imports by what we sell abroad. Personally my days of exporting 50% of our products to the EU are long past but I have the future of the younger generation to consider. We are only a big player because we are in the EU. The rest of the world has moved on in the last couple of generations and doesn't give two hoots about us.

Bob, Don't know where you get the fall back onto WTO conditions from, my understanding is that there would be a minimum of 2 years grace to negotiate new terms, and please remember we already comply with all the EU regulatory conditions, so to compare our renegotiation to those for new trade deals is typical Bremain scare mongering. As others have repeatedly said, the EU need our export markets far more than we need their's so we negotiate from a very strong position, not the reverse.
As to the concerns about how much food or energy we need I would reiterate the above point, they need to sell to us and this would reflect in how readily they would need to come to an acceptable agreement.
So stop being a scaredy cat and man up and show some spirit.

I got my information from an article in the legal section of The Times (last Saturday?), I don't make things up. Once we leave the EU then legally we fall back onto the standard WTO conditions. I cannot understand your arrogance on this, we need to buy more than they need to sell. Do you really think that negotiating with and finding unanimity amongst 27 other parliaments that we have just stormed away from is going to be straightforward? No matter how much any individual country might want to sell to us they would have to abide by the other 26.

[Quizzical Bob]

We need a lot (nearly half) of our food and we need a lot of energy. We do not survive on cheese and wine, at least I don't, and we can only pay for these imports by what we sell abroad. Personally my days of exporting 50% of our products to the EU are long past but I have the future of the younger generation to consider. We are only a big player because we are in the EU. The rest of the world has moved on in the last couple of generations and doesn't give two hoots about us.

...and there was me thinking that food importers only bought the stuff so they could sell it to wholesalers for a profit, who would sell it on to the supermarkets at a profit, who would sell it to me at a profit.

I also thought that most of the "energy" that comes in originated in Russia?

Just over 25% of food from the EU. I bet you thought that food came from supermarkets?
You're right, everybody has to make a proit but the more it costs the higher that profit and the more that you and I have to pay. Add to that the drop in value of the pound when we leave and you can expect some significant price increases.

9.0% of enery comes from Russia but the rest from all over the world. I didn't say that it came from the EU, just that we had to import it but we have to pay for it somehow. All the suppliers need $$$ and we have to buy those $$$ with £££.

[barney]

And that last sentence is the problem QB.

As a nation, we cannot do much without agreement
And that is why I'm 100% for out now.

Regain our sovereignty and make our own decisions on how our country is governed.
If the EU member states want to deal with us, then fine, if not, we'll row our own boat.

It is now openly admitted that the public were deliberately lied to in the first referendum but due to better media coverage, they won't get away with it again.

United States of Europe ?
Not for me.

[barney]

Quote from Gordon Brown today

"We should be a leader in Europe, not simply a member. We should not be fully out and we should not be half out. We should be fully in.

As expected, the political class are starting to show their true colours.

What he means is IN Schengan & IN the Euro - Renounce the rebate - totally submit to the European Court of Justice - continue to subsidise most of the Continent

That is what the long term future holds for this country should we stay.

[towny44]

I got my information from an article in the legal section of The Times (last Saturday?), I don't make things up. Once we leave the EU then legally we fall back onto the standard WTO conditions. I cannot understand your arrogance on this, we need to buy more than they need to sell. Do you really think that negotiating with and finding unanimity amongst 27 other parliaments that we have just stormed away from is going to be straightforward? No matter how much any individual country might want to sell to us they would have to abide by the other 26.

Bob, Clearly we both find each other's arrogance to be a problem, but I must ask you to explain the above point. Several posters have pointed out to you on numerous occasions that the UK buys far more from the EU than we sell to them, and yet you fail to appreciate just how much advantage this gives to the UK in any negotiations. Without their exports to us a number of EU companies, and some countries, would find their income severely reduced, so they should be very willing to agree to a reasonable settlement in the majority of trade negotiations.
You appear to assume that the UK will be destitute if we leave, with a worthless currency and no one buying our goods and services, I just do not accept this in any way, although a weakening in sterling and an increase in unemployment might reduce the attraction of the UK to east European migrants, and could even persuade some to return.
So not all bad news then.

[Peter D]

So, Angela Merkel tells VW that they are not allowed to sell their cars to the UK any more. Then François Hollande tells all the wine producers in France, sorry no more wine for the UK.

Somehow I do not think so.

[Manoverboard]

The ideal would be for us to export more than we import ... agreed ?

Taking just the one sector, engineering ...

The EU countries presently buy millions of pounds worth of cars and aero / space fabrications from us but after we leave those foreign owned manufacturers will rapidly move into EU territory, there can be no doubt about that and then we will need to import the same things that we presently export. Add to that we should perhaps also remember that many of our exports arise from EU joint ventures because we cannot afford to capitalise them ourselves, the risk being too great.

Goodbye Airbus, Nissan, Honda, Toyota and BMW Minis ... the Hungarians will happily make all the tractors too.

[towny44]

The ideal would be for us to export more than we import ... agreed ?

Taking just the one sector, engineering ...

The EU countries presently buy millions of pounds worth of cars and aero / space fabrications from us but after we leave those foreign owned manufacturers will rapidly move into EU territory, there can be no doubt about that and then we will need to import the same things that we presently export. Add to that we should perhaps also remember that many of our exports arise from EU joint ventures because we cannot afford to capitalise them ourselves, the risk being too great.

Goodbye Airbus, Nissan, Honda, Toyota and BMW Minis ... the Hungarians will happily make all the tractors too.

I never realised just how much stupidity was a pre-requisite for being a Watford fan.

[barney]

I just don't think that some have thought the whole thing through.

Trade is one part of the EU and the part that the UK seems obsessed about.

The real essence of the EU is TOTAL political union with Brussels calling the shots.
That means Brussels over ruling our Parliament when ever they see fit.
That is an absolute fact.
That will happen within our lifetime, should be vote to remain.

So, if you are happy to accept that, then vote to stay.
If not, vote leave.

My prediction is a close Stay vote and a few years down the road, all the people who voted to stay will be moaning about the situation.

[Manoverboard]

The ideal would be for us to export more than we import ... agreed ?

Taking just the one sector, engineering ...

The EU countries presently buy millions of pounds worth of cars and aero / space fabrications from us but after we leave those foreign owned manufacturers will rapidly move into EU territory, there can be no doubt about that and then we will need to import the same things that we presently export. Add to that we should perhaps also remember that many of our exports arise from EU joint ventures because we cannot afford to capitalise them ourselves, the risk being too great.

Goodbye Airbus, Nissan, Honda, Toyota and BMW Minis ... the Hungarians will happily make all the tractors too.

I never realised just how much stupidity was a pre-requisite for being a Watford fan.

You have adequately demonstrated the profile of being a village idiot ... it is vital for the future of this country that we trade successfully, if you believe that the Americans and Japanese are interested in village mentality then you are hopelessly wrong, they are ruthless and only looking for top dollar profits.

[Silver_Shiney]

I just don't think that some have thought the whole thing through.

Trade is one part of the EU and the part that the UK seems obsessed about.

The real essence of the EU is TOTAL political union with Brussels calling the shots.
That means Brussels over ruling our Parliament when ever they see fit.
That is an absolute fact.
That will happen within our lifetime, should be vote to remain.

So, if you are happy to accept that, then vote to stay.
If not, vote leave.

My prediction is a close Stay vote and a few years down the road, all the people who voted to stay will be moaning about the situation.

I reckon you're right

[Manoverboard]

I just don't think that some have thought the whole thing through.

Trade is one part of the EU and the part that the UK seems obsessed about.

Well, I think that I have thought it through and although I do agree with you that being ruled by Brussels is a bum move I also think it would be foolhardy to ignore the risks to the citizens of this Country if we dipped out through an imbalance of trade following a vote to leave.

It is, in my own opinion, the poorer folk who would be the hardest hit in such circumstances and then we may potentially face the risk of reprisals between the haves and have nots.

[barney]

Of course there will be changes Moby

That is sort of the point of having a referendum in the first place.

My simple point is that they are saying Stay = the status quo, when that is clearly not the truth of the matter.

You can only vote for Stay if you are truly happy with what we have at the moment AND accept the changes that will come.

[david63]

I am still one of the "great undecided" on this. My heart says exit, my head says stay.

Whichever way we go we will be going into the unknown, so the question is "Which unknown is the better option?"

In the short to medium term I believe that staying in will be better for me - and yes I am being somewhat selfish here. From the information that I can find there seems to a general consensus from both sides that exiting will result in a downturn in the economy - and that, at this stage in my life, is not something that I am willing to go through again, having just started to recover from the last one.

In the longer term if everything stays on a level playing field (which will not happen for many reasons) then I believe that the country could be better off, both economically and politically, and if I was 20 years younger then I would not hesitate to vote to exit.

So, basically, I am waiting for someone to give an overwhelming "cast iron" reason to vote one way or the other.

[Frank Manning]

The ideal would be for us to export more than we import ... agreed ?

Taking just the one sector, engineering ...

The EU countries presently buy millions of pounds worth of cars and aero / space fabrications from us but after we leave those foreign owned manufacturers will rapidly move into EU territory, there can be no doubt about that and then we will need to import the same things that we presently export. Add to that we should perhaps also remember that many of our exports arise from EU joint ventures because we cannot afford to capitalise them ourselves, the risk being too great.

Goodbye Airbus, Nissan, Honda, Toyota and BMW Minis ... the Hungarians will happily make all the tractors too.

Take no notice of the insults MOB. You may be a Watford supporter and one of the 'atters' traditional enemy, but you are exactly right. Our trade balance with the whole world is dreadful which is partly Thatcher's "service economy" legacy, and our national debt enormous. As soon as we leave (If we leave) there will be a collapse in the London markets, a run on the pound, and a hike in interest rates to try to stem it. It amazes me that people keep on about lack of sovereignty, and immigration. We are in control of our own sovereignty whatever people think, and problems of illegal immigration will not be solved. Those problems will fade into insignificance in the post Brexit world.

Stick to your guns MOB, you are right.

[barney]

"We are in control of our own sovereignty whatever people think"

That single statement is 100% incorrect Frank.

The whole ethos of the EU ultimately, is total political integration. One big United States of Europe with Brussels as the Capital.
The rest of the EU understand this and accepts it, but the UK government sweeps it under the carpet, to keep us subservient, as they did in the 70's
You are being lied to my friend. That is one of the few absolute facts in this debate.

Do some serious research into this Frank & Mob if you have the time and inclination.
You will be shocked at what you find.
Have a look at EFDD !

[barney]

EFDD group

click news, then read 'it's not worth the paper it's written on'

It's a bit lengthy but well written and easy to understand.

Even if you don't agree with the sentiments, it will open you eyes to how our population was hoodwinked.

[Onelife]

I just don't think that some have thought the whole thing through.

Trade is one part of the EU and the part that the UK seems obsessed about.

Well, I think that I have thought it through and although I do agree with you that being ruled by Brussels is a bum move I also think it would be foolhardy to ignore the risks to the citizens of this Country if we dipped out through an imbalance of trade following a vote to leave.

It is, in my own opinion, the poorer folk who would be the hardest hit in such circumstances and then we may potentially face the risk of reprisals between the haves and have nots.

Hi Mob...l also share your opinion that it will be the poorest who will bear the brunt should we exit the EU. If l were in their shoes l would more than likely vote to stay in and I dare say most of them will do so when push comes to shove. At the end of the day dreams and aspirations for a better future won't put bread on their tables should they find themselves out of a job (in what undoubtedly will be a turbulent transitional period) This is how they will see it, as would l if l were in their position.....thankfully I'm not, so l shall be voting for a better future for us all... out of the EU.

Rest easy Mob...come the 24th of June nothing will have changed we'll still be in the position whereby we are told how, what, and when we can do things and you and l will be regretting we didn't bet 20k at 2/5 to stay in.

In the mean time l'm going to have £5 ew on Lucky Begger in the 2.10 at York today

Regards

Keith

[Golden Princess]

Have to agree with you David63. One of the 'great undecided'. Heart says exit, head says stay. And I dont understand much of all the above opinions. But I do know that the people of Gibraltar are extremely concerned about their future.

[barney]

It is the low paid that are suffering at the moment due to the massive spike in cheap labour

from the BBC today
The latest ONS figures suggest that 257,000 EU migrants came to the UK between September 2014 and September 2015.
But other figures for the same period show 630,000 National Insurance numbers were allocated to EU nationals, up 7% on the year before. Of these, 209,000 were from Bulgaria and Romania.

So, when our government tell us that the overall figure for net migration was 300,000 or that year including all nationalities and approx. 190,00 from the EU, the appear to be miles out.
Lies, dam lies & statistics

[david63]

come the 24th of June nothing will have changed

Not sure that statement is correct.

Once the outcome of the referendum is known there will almost certainly be changes in the financial markets and with the value of sterling.

[Onelife]

come the 24th of June nothing will have changed

Not sure that statement is correct.

Once the outcome of the referendum is known there will almost certainly be changes in the financial markets and with the value of sterling.

Hi David...l'm sure there will be some bears with sore heads when the market opens on the 24th but as we know the bulls generally recover after they've had their way

Regards

Keith

[Peter D]

Just think if we do decide to vote 'out' we may lose our place in the 'Eurovision Song Contest' Now that would be a reason to vote out.

[Quizzical Bob]

Just think if we do decide to vote 'out' we may lose our place in the 'Eurovision Song Contest' Now that would be a reason to vote out.

I've said it before and I'll say it again... Eurovison has nothing to do with the EU, it's the EBU (European Broadcasting Union) which icludes Israel amongst others.

(but I know you're not really serious)