EU referendum - Stay or Leave?

[Quizzical Bob]

"If we want to continue to trade with the EU we would need to pay an accession fee, which is about the same as we contribute now, and continue to abide by the European Court of Justice".
I often hear this Quizbob, but nobody can actually state that this is the truth because up to now, no country has ever left.
So in reality, no one knows.

We are not Norway or Switzerland.
We are a massive economy in world terms and a massive export market for Continental companies.
My feeling is that commerce wise, very little will change, whether we are in or out.

We'll buy their stuff, and they'll buy ours.
That's they way it has always worked and always will.
It's not in their interest to be protectionists.

Can you imagine Merkel having to explain that to the Chairman of BMW.

Once the 'machine' kicks in and the the real propaganda starts, the STAY vote will gain momentum due to the fear factor, but for my take, and I have studied it greatly, I cannot see any benefit to this country with further political integration.
As I stated initially, the status quo is not on the table.
It's out, or further in.

I think that we owe it to future generations not to make the same mistake as was made back in the seventies.
The UK joined a Common Market not a Federal Europe

Norway has to pay a large fee in order to access the EU markets.

[Quizzical Bob]

Nick Clegg said that leaving the EU would cost us a million jobs !

When asked where these jobs were, that 100% relied on being in the EU, he didn't have a scooby.

Scaremongering of the highest order and it will unfortunately, in the end, be successful.

Expect to be bombarded with info, much of which is rubbish, as were the Scots

I have several jobs that would go. Multiply that by all the other countries and you're soon there.

[oldbluefox]

How can you continue to belong to an organisation whose auditors refuse to sign off more than £100billion of its own spending? It is scandalous and appears to me just a gravy train for failed politicians and bureaucrats living high on the hog off the backs of the taxpayer. I could think of better ways of spending £12 billion.

[barney]

Part of the 'problem' with democracy is that folk always think what affects them and then sort of expect that to be the norm.

You may have several jobs that will go Quizbob, but to the vast majority will be unaffected.

We know that Norway have 'negotiated' their own deal, but as I said, Norway is not the UK and to compare is ridiculous.
The major EU countries are crapping themselves not because they love us as partners but because they will have to find £20+ billion if we withdraw.
As I said, it is unprecedented.
If the UK is happy to fork out and basically subsidise Eastern Europe, then that's what we'll do.
That is the point of the vote.

[Quizzical Bob]

Part of the 'problem' with democracy is that folk always think what affects them and then sort of expect that to be the norm.

You may have several jobs that will go Quizbob, but to the vast majority will be unaffected.

We know that Norway have 'negotiated' their own deal, but as I said, Norway is not the UK and to compare is ridiculous.
The major EU countries are crapping themselves not because they love us as partners but because they will have to find £20+ billion if we withdraw.
As I said, it is unprecedented.
If the UK is happy to fork out and basically subsidise Eastern Europe, then that's what we'll do.
That is the point of the vote.

Barney, I hold my views from my experience as a manufacturing company that exports to Europe and has done for many years. I know what it was like before and I know how much better and easier it is now and I am certainly not alone.

The £20 billion is the gross figure and not the net, still a lot but nowhere near the £20bn.

Norway comparisons are certainly not ridiculous because they have to pay a fee to access the EU markets. We would also have to pay a fee, likely to be only very slightly less than that we pay now. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... -thinktank

The vast majority of the UK would be profoundly affected by an exit, let's not even try to pretend otherwise. We need Europe a lot more than they need us.

It's a very easy evaluation: Voting to leave could have three outcomes.

The economy suffers because exporting to the EU market is more difficult and expensive - most likely in my view.
Things stay pretty much the same - so what's the point?
Things get better- I struggle to see how we would all be any better off outside, I can see no advantages whatsoever.

It's a no-brainer, I cannot see why anybody would want to leave. Sometimes I despair for the future of this country, I really do. I'm glad I'll be dead soon but it's the grandchildren that I fear for.

[gilly88]

got to go, I voted out I don't believe that the EU has our interests at heart only their interests as politicians, its a very expensive talking shop.

[Mervyn and Trish]

I have interpreted this poll on what you would vote today, without any changes Cameron may be able to negotiate.

On that basis I vote to leave, mainly because I am sick of the EU and other countries meddling in things which have nothing to do with trade - the original purpose of the EU. The current arguments over whether we can stop paying benefits to other foreign nationals is another issue. Of course places like Poland support the status quo. They have children living there supported by benefits funded by UK taxpayers. A third issue is the state of the Euro - a currency we're not even in which has resulted in basket cases like Greece which we end up helping to bail out.

And if the ECHR is separate from the EU that's fine, let's get out of that too. It's barking that we can't deport known vicious foreign criminals because someone might not treat them well at home. They should have thought of that before they broke the law here.

If Cameron manages to get significant powers back from Brussels and concessions on other issues I may change my mind but if not I'm out.

[barney]

Part of the 'problem' with democracy is that folk always think what affects them and then sort of expect that to be the norm.

You may have several jobs that will go Quizbob, but to the vast majority will be unaffected.

We know that Norway have 'negotiated' their own deal, but as I said, Norway is not the UK and to compare is ridiculous.
The major EU countries are crapping themselves not because they love us as partners but because they will have to find £20+ billion if we withdraw.
As I said, it is unprecedented.
If the UK is happy to fork out and basically subsidise Eastern Europe, then that's what we'll do.
That is the point of the vote.

Barney, I hold my views from my experience as a manufacturing company that exports to Europe and has done for many years. I know what it was like before and I know how much better and easier it is now and I am certainly not alone.

The £20 billion is the gross figure and not the net, still a lot but nowhere near the £20bn.

Norway comparisons are certainly not ridiculous because they have to pay a fee to access the EU markets. We would also have to pay a fee, likely to be only very slightly less than that we pay now. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... -thinktank

The vast majority of the UK would be profoundly affected by an exit, let's not even try to pretend otherwise. We need Europe a lot more than they need us.

It's a very easy evaluation: Voting to leave could have three outcomes.

The economy suffers because exporting to the EU market is more difficult and expensive - most likely in my view.
Things stay pretty much the same - so what's the point?
Things get better- I struggle to see how we would all be any better off outside, I can see no advantages whatsoever.

It's a no-brainer, I cannot see why anybody would want to leave. Sometimes I despair for the future of this country, I really do. I'm glad I'll be dead soon but it's the grandchildren that I fear for.

I admire your conviction Quizbob but hold entirely the opposite view.
I believe that the EU has held us back for many years and that after the initial transition period, we, as a Sovereign Nation will be much better off.
If exporting to the remaining EU countries is more difficult, so be it.
We'll get over it.
It's a big world out there with many, new emerging markets.
It's not only about trade.
It's also about control of our country. Be it laws, immigration, security and much, much more.
As gilly88 says, it's an expensive talking shop with very little getting done in a positive way.

I have not seen a single argument to convince me that the UK is not better off outside the European Union

So, we'll agree to differ

[emjay45]

Well I've voted now. Thanks MOB
QB my husband also was in manufacturing until he retired and holds the same views as you. I hope you are both wrong as I really would like us to get out from under the thumb of Brussels. It would be good if David Cameron sticks to his guns but I somehow don't see him having the backbone Maggie had.

[Frank Manning]

I am for the first time a dont know. I fear that our manufacturing industry has been run down to the extent that our economy is over reliant on the service and state sectors, and without the EU markets to support us and with a massive balance of payments deficit, I see a run on the pound, unemployment, and sharp falls in equity values if we leave. On the other hand it really does need some serious reform to break up the gravy train and the power of the un elected commission, which is usurping our own democratic institutions. I dont see that happening, there are too many vested interests with their snouts in the EU budget trough.

[barney]

The IMF has us as the fifth largest economy in the world Frank, so although much of old style manufacturing has gone, the UK is still a serious world force.

That is why the 'Norway model' is absured.
We are nothing like Norway.
Norway are 27th.
Our GDP is larger than most of the eastern block countries put together

The UK is world class in many things and some would have us believe that without the support of the EU, we would be nothing.

[Manoverboard]

One more to the ' NO 's.

Did I mention that the remaining parts of GM and Ford plus BMW, Nissan and Honda would likely up sticks and move to a location ' within ' the EU at the first possible opportunity, a new model being a prime example. It would surely be a far better option for them than sticking with a Banana Republic on the fringes.

As a bi-product of this our cars, vans and lorries would then cost even more due to the sea passage and the impact of our new look super strict customs delays controls.

Selling Financial Services can also be achieved from anywhere of course but the German Banks would surely see our abdication as an opportunity of a lifetime ..... lots more unemployment on the horizon me thinks.

If it comes to pass as above is it really a price worth paying just to escape the clutches of a shed full of Sepp Blatters ?

[Manoverboard]

The IMF has us as the fifth largest economy in the world ....

Interesting point that.

I remember when Italy were at the top of the list yet they were virtually bankrupt .... how can this be, well, it seems that the value of their ( staying put ) ' Art Treasures ' were taken into account.

[Quizzical Bob]

The IMF has us as the fifth largest economy in the world Frank, so although much of old style manufacturing has gone, the UK is still a serious world force.

That is why the 'Norway model' is absured.
We are nothing like Norway.
Norway are 27th.
Our GDP is larger than most of the eastern block countries put together

The UK is world class in many things and some would have us believe that without the support of the EU, we would be nothing.

How much of that is because we are in the EU?

(I think you are missing the point about Norway)

[towny44]

The IMF has us as the fifth largest economy in the world Frank, so although much of old style manufacturing has gone, the UK is still a serious world force.

That is why the 'Norway model' is absured.
We are nothing like Norway.
Norway are 27th.
Our GDP is larger than most of the eastern block countries put together

The UK is world class in many things and some would have us believe that without the support of the EU, we would be nothing.

How much of that is because we are in the EU?

(I think you are missing the point about Norway)

Which point would that be QB?
You never commented on my comments about our EU trade balance and Camerons strong Brexit negotiating position, are you being a bit selective in your arguments?

[Quizzical Bob]

The IMF has us as the fifth largest economy in the world Frank, so although much of old style manufacturing has gone, the UK is still a serious world force.

That is why the 'Norway model' is absured.
We are nothing like Norway.
Norway are 27th.
Our GDP is larger than most of the eastern block countries put together

The UK is world class in many things and some would have us believe that without the support of the EU, we would be nothing.

How much of that is because we are in the EU?

(I think you are missing the point about Norway)

Which point would that be QB?
You never commented on my comments about our EU trade balance and Camerons strong Brexit negotiating position, are you being a bit selective in your arguments?

Towny, I don't normally post a lot of text because I normally use an iPad and my fingers get numb very quickly.

Norway is not the only country which has to pay an accession fee to the EU, but any country that wants to trade with the European Market has to pay such a fee and has no say in the running of the institution. I am not saying that we are like Norway and therefore we would need to follow a similar model, just that we would have to follow a similar model, the size of the economy is not relevant. In addition to the fee such countries have to agree to the same freedom of movement of labour as current members. We would end up paying much the same net amount as now with no influence. Any country that wishes to join the EU has also to adopt the Euro, so trying to get back in would be difficult.

Now, as to the trade deficit. You argue that as a net customer of trade we are in a strong bargaining position but you have to look at the makeup of that trade. Germany excels in industrial machinery which we would continue to need to buy. Europe does not need us as much as we would like to think. Indeed, the general view over there is that we are 'troublemakers' and many would be only too pleased for us to leave.

Must go now as I have work to do

[anneed]

Having read all the posts in this thread I am now completely undecided. People clearly believe passionately on both sides so for the time being I'm sitting firmly on the fence.
Don't shout if this is a stupid question but - if we left and it all went horribly wrong could we rejoin at some point?

[Silver_Shiney]

yes, but at a cost and, as previously stated, we would have to adopt the Euro as our currency

[Quizzical Bob]

Having read all the posts in this thread I am now completely undecided. People clearly believe passionately on both sides so for the time being I'm sitting firmly on the fence.
Don't shout if this is a stupid question but - if we left and it all went horribly wrong could we rejoin at some point?

Yes but not under the terms that we have now, opt-outs, whatever they're worth.

And there's the Euro question, which is a whole new debate (I'm all for it, by the way)

[towny44]

Well that was an interesting experiment, I was surprised the leave vote was as high as 69% but it just confirms my views that really the EU, as currently headed, does not suit the average UK voter.
The expectation by the Northern countries of further consolidation of financial and political policy is totally alien to me, and I wonder why the electorates in the rest of the EU are happy to see their fiscal and political independence absorbed into an EU run essentially by Germany and France.
However maybe the recent elections in France and Spain are indicative of an increase in the anti EU parties, which further enforces my view that we should leave.

[oldbluefox]

I wonder how the demographics of any vote would pan out. There are parts of the country which have seen little investment as a consequence of our EU membership whilst others have seen many benefits. I certainly feel no benefit, only the inconvenience of being dictated to by an over bloated and profligate administration. Trade with Europe gets my vote, being ruled by Europe does not and for that we don't need a bureaucratic behemoth.

[ITWA Travel Writer]

Speaking for Mrs Krankie, let me advise all you “Sooth Moothers” to vote to come out of the EU!!

This is probably the easiest way for us up here to gain our independence; become a separate country; then re-join the EU; have all the foreign companies at present manufacturing South of the Border move up north to continue their easy access to the EU marketplace.

Then we might get a second runway at Edinburgh Airport!!

[Silver_Shiney]

Good to see you back, John. I would point out, though, that with its own legal system, separate rules for education and health, parliament etc etc, you already have independence in all but name.

[oldbluefox]

Independence John? Mrs Krankie should have given Joe Public in England the vote. But the Fairy Godmother may still grant you your wish if we gain Brexit.
Hope all is well with you.

[towny44]

John, I take it the one extra vote to stay in the EU from when I posted this morning was from yourself.
I fully agree with you that a "stay in" vote is the only way Scotland will remain part of the EU, I doubt that the EU would agree to accept another bankrupt basket case like Greece if, after a "leave", vote you did achieve independence and re-applied to join them.