EU referendum - Stay or Leave?

[Onelife]

The way to conduct this referendum is surely to set the switch so that everybody is signed up to staying in .... then those who wish us to leave should go and vote to opt out. With 51% of the vote winning the day

So ....

At the moment we have 200 of the top businesses in favour of staying in plus the majority of MPs, the Chinese and Americans and in favour of leaving we have Boris, Nige and Merv plus a few hangers on like OL.

Job done, deffo

...and ..JCB...Nissan...Tate & Lyle... Toyota...etc, etc who have given Brexit their blessing.....and don't think we will go hungry either Moby cos we will still have Aldi and lidl to keep us going.

I was reading a report where it said there are over a million migrants camped up in Turkey looking for somewhere to go... so where do you think they will all be heading when Turkey joins the EU?....South Devon perhaps?

As for the damage that a Brexit would have on the financial sector?... Britain will get a “very favourable deal” if the country leaves the EU, ensuring that the City of London is not undermined as a major financial centre, according to UBS’ chairman Axel Weber and former Bundesbank boss. The Swiss bank employs around 5,000 staff in the UK

Mob, l ain't no hanger on...but don't be surprised if l do a bit of swinging nearer the time...squeak squeak!

[barney]

It appears that Dave may be telling a few porkies according to Gove on Radio 4 this morning.

He absolutely confirmed the The European Court of Justice can over rule anything that is not laid down in Treaty.

So, Dave's assertion that his deal is legally binding is quite frankly rubbish.

So, in the end, he got a watered down agreement which means little

Well done Dave

[Manoverboard]

... So, Dave's assertion that his deal is legally binding is quite frankly rubbish ...

That, I assume, is a Barney type ' fact ' .

A little more info would have revealed that the agreement reached ( by good ol Dave ) has yet to be applied to the Treaty, which is entirely logical given the circumstance of the last minute deals that were struck, but that it ( the agreement ) will be taken into account in the meantime by the European Court of Justice .

OL .... Nissan and Toyota will naturally wish us well should we leave but wait and see where their new automotive plants will be built ... Will they be in South Devon ( Independent ) or possibly Bucharest ( EU ) ?

[Onelife]

... So, Dave's assertion that his deal is legally binding is quite frankly rubbish ...

That, I assume, is a Barney type ' fact ' .

A little more info would have revealed that the agreement reached ( by good ol Dave ) has yet to be applied to the Treaty, which is entirely logical given the circumstance of the last minute deals that were struck, but that it ( the agreement ) will be taken into account in the meantime by the European Court of Justice .

OL .... Nissan and Toyota will naturally wish us well should we leave but wait and see where their new automotive plants will be built ... Will they be in South Devon ( Independent ) or possibly Bucharest ( EU ) ?

Hi Mob.....They will do as every other business will do which is to wait and see how things pan out before making any rash decisions.

[barney]

... So, Dave's assertion that his deal is legally binding is quite frankly rubbish ...

That, I assume, is a Barney type ' fact ' .

I'd suggest that it is a fact Moby

Gove wouldn't have hung himself out to dry unless he was 100% certain that the agreement wasn't actually legally binding.
It has to ratified and written in to Treaty
That will take years (if ever) and until then, it can be over ruled.

Unless of course Gove's legal understanding is incorrect but as Justice Secretary, you'd assume not.

[Mervyn and Trish]

I predict that if we vote IN half, if not all, of Call-Me-Dave's renegotiations will get overturned.

[Onelife]

... So, Dave's assertion that his deal is legally binding is quite frankly rubbish ...

That, I assume, is a Barney type ' fact ' .

I'd suggest that it is a fact Moby

Gove wouldn't have hung himself out to dry unless he was 100% certain that the agreement wasn't actually legally binding.
It has to ratified and written in to Treaty
That will take years (if ever) and until then, it can be over ruled.

Unless of course Gove's legal understanding is incorrect but as Justice Secretary, you'd assume not.

Hi Barney...as you are implying, the so called deals that Cameron has put on the table arn't worth tuppence unless the MEP'S ratifiy them....What you can be sure about is that they won't be in a rush to do so and as this process will take place after the referendum one would hope this should set alarm bells ringing in even the most ardent of pro EU voters.

Regards

Keith

[Kendhni]

I really hate the stupid scaremongering being carried out by both sides at the minute ... why can they not stick to the facts and let people make up their mind based on informed decision.

The question I want to know is what replaces Europe or what will our relationship be with Europe if we do leave?

Some people talk about the Norwegian model ... it is about 10% of the population of the UK and we could follow its model. It would cost us about 75% of our current contributions, we can trade goods and services, we would still have to adhere to all the rules and laws but we would have absolutely no clout.

Other people talk about the Swiss model ... that would cost us about 40-50% of what we currently contribute, we can trade goods but not services (major blow there considering our economy is a service-based economy), we would still have to adhere to most of the rules and laws and we would have absolutely no clout.

Finally we could have complete separation ... we would still be paying a fortune to trade with Europe which will push up inflation and shop prices ... and we seem to be arrogant enough to think that other countries will be clamouring to trade with us (hmmmm, over priced goods made by over paid staff that can be bought much cheaper elsewhere).

So before we throw the baby out with the bath water has anyone in either camp looked at the alternatives properly. What will replace the existing deal? There is absolutely no way anybody can vote intelligently or from the point-of-view of being 'informed' until we know the answer to that! Anybody who has fully made their mind up at this point is somewhat blinkered and narrow minded - we do not have enough information.

[Mervyn and Trish]

...... we do not have enough information.

And nor will we have Ken, especially as none of Call-Me-Dave's half hearted reforms will be ratified before the vote.

Half of Scotland voted in their referendum based on a future of milk and honey financed by oil.

And look what happened there.

As to which model we might adopt, I'd go for the UK model. We are a much bigger economy than Norway, Sweden or Switzerland, so why copy them?

But let's assume the IN doom mongers are right and after a separation the rest of the EU decides not to trade with us.

The immediate result is a huge reduction in our balance of trade defecit and fewer BMWs carving me up on the motorway. Win win.

But then UK industry could regroup and instead of selling to Europe could produce the goods we want at home and can no longer import from Europe.

May sound daft but it's as good as anything I've heard from the so-called experts.

[Quizzical Bob]

...... we do not have enough information.

And nor will we have Ken, especially as none of Call-Me-Dave's half hearted reforms will be ratified before the vote.

Half of Scotland voted in their referendum based on a future of milk and honey financed by oil.

And look what happened there.

As to which model we might adopt, I'd go for the UK model. We are a much bigger economy than Norway, Sweden or Switzerland, so why copy them?

But let's assume the IN doom mongers are right and after a separation the rest of the EU decides not to trade with us.

The immediate result is a huge reduction in our balance of trade defecit and fewer BMWs carving me up on the motorway. Win win.

But then UK industry could regroup and instead of selling to Europe could produce the goods we want at home and can no longer import from Europe.

May sound daft but it's as good as anything I've heard from the so-called experts.

A big increase in the deficit, as it happens. The services we export would be the first to go.

[Kendhni]

Unfortunately M&T that probably is not how it is going to work. There will still be plenty of European produce flooding our shores probably a preferential rates because there is no doubt the pound is going to take a hit and we can expect much higher inflation (even the out camp accepts this is likely to be double figure inflation) ... hopefully short term.

The interesting thing is that throughout history it has been proven time-and-time again that the real advances and strength of economy come when we stop trying to be self-sufficient and become specialists ... so we provide service A but buy or trade service B, C, D, E etc. from others. That to me implies we are stronger together ... however if the out camp will not explain to me what the alternative plan is (plus a contingency plan B) then how on earth can we tell the best option.

AS QB says it is the trading in services that will be problematic ... we are a service based economy ... if we lose our main market without a plan to IMMEDIATELY fill that void then I can only see huge job losses and relocation of jobs. The onus is on the 'out' camp to convince me by explaining the alternatives and at the minute they have come up with nothing, zilch, nada.

[Onelife]

The only thing we can say for certain should we vote to come out of Europe is that the repercussions will be felt hardest by those on lower incomes. Other than that we won't know what the future holds until it happens.

I am under no illusion that it will take many years to get us back on a firm footing but l honestly believe it is a price worth paying to give this country back some self respect. I want to see farmers back ploughing our fields not taking handouts to keep them baron. I want to see our waters fished without being told where and when we can do it. I want control over our borders. I want to see our financial system work for the county and not just for the few. I want to see a judicial system that administers the laws that uphold the values of this country. I want to see us making things again. But most of all l desperately want to feel some pride in my country again.

Is this posible l don't know but without trying we will never know.


God save the Queen.

[Kendhni]

God save the Queen.

What the hell Elton John has to do with it I don't know

[oldbluefox]

If the UK leaves the EU I can see a big shake up as other countries question their own membership; the UK may not be the first. I understand those who gain something from the EU will want to remain. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas but there are whole swathes of the country which gain nothing from our membership, whole industries with attendant job losses which have suffered as a consequence of EU policy. Time for this vast expensive bureaucratic gravy train to be halted and returned to the purpose for which it was intended - a nation of trading partners.

[oldbluefox]

How relevant is the EU to the man in the street?
How many people know the name of their EMP?
How many people know what their manifesto included when they were elected?
Even, how many people voted?
Of those who did vote how many knew what they were voting for, or did they just follow party loyalties?

[barney]

I'd like to see one spokesperson nominated form each side and given half hour to speak, totally uninterrupted.

The question for the Stays = why is it good for the UK to remain in - the facts
The question for the Leave = why is it good for the UK to leave - the facts

The ref could ask any statement made to be backed up so they can't just spout rubbish, which so many do at the moment.

So no negative campaigning, no talking over each other, no bulls*it, just the simple facts on economy, movement of people, and any other business.

then we can make an informed decision.

[barney]

By the way, Ian Duncan Smith played a blinder on Andrew Marr show.

He said what I've been thinking for so long.

[towny44]

As usual Ken's contributions have highlighted the main issues the leave campaign need to address and given me food for some further thought.

However what he has not addressed is how will the increasing desire of the euro zone for further federal integration affect us if we decide to stay in the EU.

My own view is that the euro zone will continue to bring in lots more legislation to further their federal aims and to bolster the Euro, and even if these conflict with the financial and sovereignty safeguards Dave has agreed, I doubt that will prevent the majority having their way.
Which seems to leave us damned if we stay and damned if we go.

As an aside I cannot understand why the eastern european member states seem so willing to subjugate themselves in a federal european state when they have only recently escaped from soviet Russia, but money talks as the saying goes.

[Mervyn and Trish]

If they stop buying our services we stop buying their BMWs. Seemples

[Kendhni]

If they stop buying our services we stop buying their BMWs. Seemples

I wish it were that simple ... that is a bit like saying to your doctor 'if you don't buy these cupcakes from me I am not taking the prescription you have just written me' ... of course we could go down that route and once we have made a lot of people unemployed we could then re-evaluate.


I also agree with Towny ... the 'in' camp has to be very clear and open about what direction Europe is going and how it will affect the British people. For years we have been kept in the dark over Europe (I would suggest that was deliberately done), but now is the time to fill in those blanks.

[Mervyn and Trish]

I suspect the British public will be cajoled/conned/bullied into voting In.

But it won't be to stop QBob moving to France. It'll be fear of the unknown.

And it will be in spite of the greatest concern of most people, which Call-Me-Dave's rolling over renegotiation has failed to address. Control of our borders.

Net migration of 300,000 a year is not sustainable.

[towny44]

If they stop buying our services we stop buying their BMWs. Seemples

I wish it were that simple ... that is a bit like saying to your doctor 'if you don't buy these cupcakes from me I am not taking the prescription you have just written me' ... of course we could go down that route and once we have made a lot of people unemployed we could then re-evaluate.


I also agree with Towny ... the 'in' camp has to be very clear and open about what direction Europe is going and how it will affect the British people. For years we have been kept in the dark over Europe (I would suggest that was deliberately done), but now is the time to fill in those blanks.

But that means that both choices have great big unknowns hanging over them and neither camp are likely to provide full and conclusive answers.
So how on earth can any average voter make a reasoned decision, they can't and they won't however they will make a choice.
In these circumstances I still think that despite the probable difficulties of negotiating a satisfactory free trade deal and sensible cooperation on security and policing, in the long run we will be far better off severing all our EU links, rather than risking being forced, in the end, to agree to join a federal europe with the white houise in Berlin.

[Onelife]

I would imagine for those of you who have share portfolios the coming referendum will be a very nervous time.. Now l know nowt about stockmarkets but l would have thought there will be a considerable amount of volatility leading up to the referendum and could have you feeling like 'bears' with sore heads after it.

At the time of the last market (crash) downturn l decided run for cover which was just as well l did because the broker we were using put a block on withdrawals just a week later.

So will it be a case of sit and hope for the best? Damage limitation by spreading your share options? or will you be running for cover like l did?

[Silver_Shiney]

Unit trusts are generally better than shares in individual companies, although I do have a few actual shareholdings. Unit trusts invest in sectors and the fund managers will move the capital around between individual companies within that sector. Carnival's been doing extremely well, Hargreaves Lansdown up and down, the others not good. I've also got holdings in "physical gold" and "physical silver" - gold is now approaching positive figures and silver has started the long climb back out of negativity. Precious metals are usually the bolthole of investors scared of the stockmarkets. The markets do not like uncertainty, so the run-ups to any sort of election or referendum generally cause considerable volatility. It has been anticipated for many years that we are approaching a crash that will make 1929 look like a blip.

[barney]

Shares are for those who like a gamble.

I much prefer hard cash and seeing 000's in my statement.

The fact that I've had hardly any interest in the passing years bothers me not one jot.

I like to know where my hard eraned is and that it is safe and accessable.

To stay or leave would make no difference to the volatility of the market. There is always some crisis or another.
The only certainty and that there will be uncertainty.

One thing that is really annoying me about this whole debate is the interviewers allowing speakers of both sides to get away with spouting rubbish without challenging it!

Hammond said this morning on Radio 4 that every country with a free trade agreement with the EU HAS to abide by EU rules on free movement of people, regulations etc.
That was accepted by the interviewer who wanted to move on to the next question
How very bizarre and totally untrue, but unchallenged.