EU referendum - Stay or Leave?

[david63]

At the end of the day nobody knows what will happen whether we stay in or leave, as there is no precedent to work from - everything that is being promised promulgated is nothing more than speculation and guesswork.

The only facts that I have heard are:

• Staying in
  • We might get a slightly modified agreement with the EU.
• Leaving
  • Most commentators predict that our economy will suffer in the short to medium term.
  • Norway has a trade agreement with terms almost as restrictive as being a full member.
  • Canada has been trying to negotiate a trade agreement for the best part of 10 years.

Non of which fills me with much confidence that things will improve.

[Frank Manning]

Obamah didn't threaten us at all. That is just the sensationalist viewpoint of what he said, I was ashamed at some of the stuff now being spouted about him in our media (and also Cameron). As for Cameron being better in the minority coalition government, of course he was, because he didn't have those far right Tories foolishly taking advantage of a small majority in a vain belief that they now have carte blanche to promote a right wing agenda. If they aren't careful they will have it demonstrated to them once again by the electorate that they are out of step with the majority of the UK; it will be 1997 all over again, and we may get another hung parliament or Comrade Corbyn.

[Mervyn and Trish]

I didn't suggest Cameron was better in coalition. He broke promises then with the excuse it was because of presdure from the Lib Dems. He breaks them now with no excuse because he has a majority. Bottom line is he breaks promises. And his renegotiation with the EU is a joke. He has nothing concrete, nothing substantial and nothing irreversible after the referendum. I remain willing to be convinced of the benefits of staying in the EU, but I've heard none, just threats and speculation about what will happen if we leave. I want positives, but all I hear are negatives.

[Southwinds]

Fullfact.org

Interesting web site that looks at facts...especially checking those figures banded about so much by both sides...

[Ray Scully]

The Brexit stance is really
Hope Over Experience
Many important decisions hinge on expectations
of future outcomes. Decisions about health,
investments, and relationships all depend on one’s view of the future. Importantly, these
expectations are often optimistic: People frequently believe preferred outcomes are more likely
than is merited.
The desire to leave the EU has a number of parallels with some Manchester United fan's wish for Mourinho to manage the team.
Both are optimistic that it will bring about an improvement but neither can be at all certain.
The problem for me is that I don't give a damn if Man U get it wrong, but if we vote to leave the EU .... well that could be disastrous.

[poole boy]

The Brexit stance is really
Hope Over Experience
Many important decisions hinge on expectations
of future outcomes. Decisions about health,
investments, and relationships all depend on one’s view of the future. Importantly, these
expectations are often optimistic: People frequently believe preferred outcomes are more likely
than is merited.
The desire to leave the EU has a number of parallels with some Manchester United fan's wish for Mourinho to manage the team.
Both are optimistic that it will bring about an improvement but neither can be at all certain.



The problem for me is that I don't give a damn if Man U get it wrong, but if we vote to leave the EU .... well that could be disastrous.

ray the only people who seem to put expectation that are a total joke are mr Cameron and his chancellor also I am sure mourinho would do a darn sight better job than the present lot, I have listened to your rants through this debate and you have certainly not convinced me so we will be voting to leave

[towny44]

Ray, Frank, Moby, QBob, I fully understand the fear of the unknown that the prophets of doom in the remain campaign have sown in your minds, and I do admit to some similar trepidation amongst the soul searching I have done about this referendum.
But the bottom line still keeps telling me that a vote to stay in the EU is a vote to ultimately sacrifice our independence totally to Brussels, and to join the Euro, because there is no way that the major players in the EU have any intention to stop until a fully fledged Federal States of Europe exists; and this will happen regardless of the so called concessions David Cameron has obtained, and it will demand that all member states join the single currency, because that is the only way the euro can survive.
Now if you want this to happen then by all means vote to stay, but if you want to retain our independence then there is no way you should ever consider any vote other than leave.

[Silver_Shiney]

I agree, John

[barney]

IF the EU had been a resounding financial success, we would be crazy to leave.
IF the EU didn't want total financial & political integration, we would be crazy to leave.
IF the EU didn't have massive expansionist plans, we would be crazy to leave.
IF the EU could find some way of restraining migration to the more successful economies, we'd be crazy to leave.
IF the EU abandoned it's federalist policy, we'd be crazy to leave.
IF the EU could guarantee that counties outside the Eurozone would not be marginalised, we'd be crazy to leave.

That is a lot of IFs

Due to uncertainty, many folk will vote to stay.
That is widely accepted.
These are the very same people who will be moaning like hell in a few years saying 'nobody told us' !!
These are the very same people who will be moaning about lack of services due to the population spike !!

[Silver_Shiney]

IF the EU had been a resounding financial success, we would be crazy to leave.
IF the EU didn't want total financial & political integration, we would be crazy to leave.
IF the EU didn't have massive expansionist plans, we would be crazy to leave.
IF the EU could find some way of restraining migration to the more successful economies, we'd be crazy to leave.
IF the EU abandoned it's federalist policy, we'd be crazy to leave.
IF the EU could guarantee that counties outside the Eurozone would not be marginalised, we'd be crazy to leave.

That is a lot of IFs

But as they can't/won't, IMHO we'd be crazy to stay....

[Frank Manning]

But I don't fear the unknown. That is what the Brexiteers keep saying about us, then if we defend ourselves they say we are insulting them. Bit of a laugh that! Not!. We are making our decisions on rational thought, not sentiment. I know what joining did for the businesses I worked in and for their customers, and I don't have any xenophobia about our European allies, neither do I live in a utopian past when we really were Great Britain. When I see the collection of people in the public eye backing Brexit such as Boris and Simon Heffer, and disillusioned right wing Thatcherite Tories, it makes me all the more certain that the Stay campaign is the one based on rational reasoning of what is best for the majority in the UK.

[towny44]

But I don't fear the unknown. That is what the Brexiteers keep saying about us, then if we defend ourselves they say we are insulting them. Bit of a laugh that! Not!. We are making our decisions on rational thought, not sentiment. I know what joining did for the businesses I worked in and for their customers, and I don't have any xenophobia about our European allies, neither do I live in a utopian past when we really were Great Britain. When I see the collection of people in the public eye backing Brexit such as Boris and Simon Heffer, and disillusioned right wing Thatcherite Tories, it makes me all the more certain that the Stay campaign is the one based on rational reasoning of what is best for the majority in the UK.

So I take it then that you are happy to join a European super state, losing any remaining vestiges of our independence, and to drop sterling and join the Euro.
Or do you really believe that Dave's supposed safeguards will actually work when the EU federal end game is enacted?

[barney]

Interesting listening to Andrew Neal yesterday and them saying that the 'agreement' being negotiated between the USA & the EU may never happen due to too many stumbling blocks on both sides.

Germany are not keen on it and if the Germans don't like it, it often doesn't happen.

So much for being at the back of the queue. There doesn't appear to be a queue at all.

I saw poster recently say this

Stay = status quo
Leave = uncertainty

My problem with that is that the status quo is not on the table.
If we stay, huge change is on the way.
Good or bad, no one knows which is exactly the same for the Leave option.

Worst forecasts are a UK population of 70 million by 2030 (if Turkey & Ukraine join)
Can we, as a country sustain that without massive investment.
Maybe the EU will pay for the infrastructure ?

[Frank Manning]

But I don't fear the unknown. That is what the Brexiteers keep saying about us, then if we defend ourselves they say we are insulting them. Bit of a laugh that! Not!. We are making our decisions on rational thought, not sentiment. I know what joining did for the businesses I worked in and for their customers, and I don't have any xenophobia about our European allies, neither do I live in a utopian past when we really were Great Britain. When I see the collection of people in the public eye backing Brexit such as Boris and Simon Heffer, and disillusioned right wing Thatcherite Tories, it makes me all the more certain that the Stay campaign is the one based on rational reasoning of what is best for the majority in the UK.

So I take it then that you are happy to join a European super state, losing any remaining vestiges of our independence, and to drop sterling and join the Euro.
Or do you really believe that Dave's supposed safeguards will actually work when the EU federal end game is enacted?[/

That is not what the EU is about. That is what the tabloid press and a few political climbers would have you believe. Don't forget, that the EU has initiated some excellent legislation; it's just that the Daily Wail etc will not report that because they are fixated on imagined slights to our national identity ad culture. For a more balanced view yesterday's Sunday Times was good reading.

[Ray Scully]

Bringing back memories of the smoking debate, entrenched views on both sides, with thankfully contributions from the vices of reason

[Frank Manning]

Bringing back memories of the smoking debate, entrenched views on both sides, with thankfully contributions from the vices of reason

You keep your vices to yourself Ray Scully!!

[Silver_Shiney]

Bringing back memories of the smoking debate, entrenched views on both sides, with thankfully contributions from the vices of reason

You keep your vices to yourself Ray Scully!!

especially the reasonable ones - we're only interested in the unreasonable ones here

[Ray Scully]

Bringing back memories of the smoking debate, entrenched views on both sides, with thankfully contributions from the vices of reason

You keep your vices to yourself Ray Scully!!

All of them

[allatc]

An interview with the President of the United States of America

Interviewer : Mr President, I understand that you want the USA to become part of a United States of the Americas that includes all the nation states from Canada in the north to Chile and Argentina in the south ?

POTUS : That is correct.

Interviewer : and the proposed seat of government for the USof A's will be in Panama but once a month will move to Paraguay ?

POTUS : That is correct.

Interviewer : But isn't that rather wasteful and inefficient ?

POTUS : It is, but it is necessary to keep the smaller nations happy and on board with the plan.

Interviewer: The auditors appointed to check the financial dealings of the US of the A's have been unable to sign them off as correct for over 18 years. Does that not worry you ?

POTUS: That's just a minor detail highlighted by those who would wish derail our intentions.

Interviewer : The laws in the new Superstate, if I may call it that, will be made by unelected representatives and ratified by a parliament in which the USA will have only a small number of representatives.

POTUS : That is correct.

Interviewer : and the US courts will be subordinate to a court in Guatemala composed of judges many of whom have no background in law?
POTUS : That is correct.

Interviewer: The USA has always been careful about who it lets into the country but under the new agreement you will have to accept, without question, people from Canada, Mexico, and the whole of central and south America.
POTUS : That is correct.

Interviewer: Mr President, Why ?

POTUS: It's important to be part of a large trading block. joining the US of the A's will increase our stature in the world.
Interviewer: Do you really believe you can sell this idea to the American people.

POTUS: I do, and I have enlisted the help of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Westminster to come and convince them.

Interviewer: Thank you Mr President.

[Silver_Shiney]

nice one. allatc

[Dark Knight]

I would defy anyone in here to give a honest unbiased summary of what will happen if we stay or if we leave because you simply cannot,despite your protestations one way or another.
The decision to leave will be made out of fear, not information and that fear will show the true nature of our country, as the underlying reason most people will vote to leave is racism, pure and simple, the fear we will be overrun by foreigners, muslims, poles. turks, people coming here to claim benefits to send back home, fear of open borders and that our way of life will be subsumed by the rest of Europe until and we will become a puppet of the German state. That's the real reason for an exit, all the talk of economics is conjecture with no basis in fact, all the talk of trade deals is a myth.
No, the real issue here is that the UK is an inherently racist country that still thinks we have an empire and that we are superior to most other cultures and that racism and bigotry will be the underlying reason most people vote to exit
whether people are honest enough to admit it is another issue

[Silver_Shiney]

I hear what you are saying, DK, but for me, it is a matter of being able to govern ourselves without interference from an unelected body of proven wastrels. I couldn't give a stuff what nationality or race a person is, if they can contribute to this nation's economy and provide a service that no-one from this country can/will provide (eg shortage of nurses), or are genuine refugees from an unjust regime, then they are more than welcome. However, if they come, as, for example, those Romanian gypsies encamped around Marble Arch did a year or so back (are they still there?), to cause problems,leach our benefits system and cause a strain on our already-overburdened education and health services, then no.

As for trade/defence collaborations ceasing if we leave, I don't buy it. We built Concorde, Puma and Jaguar with the French before the Common Market, and I think I'm right in saying that the Panavia Tornado was pre-Common Market, too. It happened then, it can happen again now.

It's in everyone's interest to fight terrorism - that should -- MUST -- not be hampered by any form of trade or political blok.

It's a buyer's market. Companies all over need to sell.

I fully expect that the "remain" camp will win the day but the European State has to undergo major reforms.

[Dark Knight]

However, if they come, as, for example, those Romanian gypsies encamped around Marble Arch did a year or so back (are they still there?), to cause problems,leach our benefits system and cause a strain on our already-overburdened education and health services, then no.
SS
that is my point in a nut shell, the vast majority of our country think this is the norm and we will be overrun, all the discussion about trade, GDP, trade agreements etc is a ruse to divert people away from what is seen as the main issue, immigration and that fear is fuelled by underlying racism.
People are too quick to dismiss Farage and his ilk but I bet his message gets through to more people than does Cameron's

[Ray Scully]

One of the main reasons they come here it to get work. They are eminently employable, my experience being that they are extremely competent and give value for the wages page. That is if they have not set up their own companies. So without them and to attempt to grow our economy we would have to fall back on our own resources,
many of whom are unemployable IMHO

[towny44]

However, if they come, as, for example, those Romanian gypsies encamped around Marble Arch did a year or so back (are they still there?), to cause problems,leach our benefits system and cause a strain on our already-overburdened education and health services, then no.
SS
that is my point in a nut shell, the vast majority of our country think this is the norm and we will be overrun, all the discussion about trade, GDP, trade agreements etc is a ruse to divert people away from what is seen as the main issue, immigration and that fear is fuelled by underlying racism.
People are too quick to dismiss Farage and his ilk but I bet his message gets through to more people than does Cameron's

I do think you over estimate the truly rascist vote/view DK, my concerns are with not wanting to become part of the EU's federal state and then having to join the euro.
But I do agree that trade barrier concerns are being over egged by the Bremainers, and similarly the control of our borders is being over hyped by the Brexit group.
However anyone who believes we can keep the status quo, or even improve it with Daves dodgy agreements, by voting to remain in the EU is, IMHO, living in cloud cuckoo land.