EU referendum - Stay or Leave?

[david63]

There were two interesting points made on the news last night.

1. All we are getting at the moment is "negative" campaigning from both sides and what the public want is some positive advantages - either way. All we are getting is each side disparaging the other.

2. The whole of the campaigning currently is by the Tories - when are the other parties (for whichever side) going to enter the debate?

[barney]

Tristram Hunt from Labour was on radio 4 last evening, re-writing history.

Did you know that because of the EU, the Balkan war was quickly sorted out ???

My memory is that the EU did absolutely eff all but talk and it was Nato that intervened, lead by the British contingent.

Funny how the political elite assume that we are all ignorant muppets.

[towny44]

Barney, you are so right, apart from the last sentence, IMO it is the political elite who are all mainly ignorant muppets.

[oldbluefox]

2. The whole of the campaigning currently is by the Tories - when are the other parties (for whichever side) going to enter the debate?

Because they are probably sitting on the fence waiting for the vote to go against Cameron then they will all find reason to criticise him and the Bremain campaign. I despise the hypocrisy of opposition parties.
I find it ironic that when in opposition they have all the answers but in power they are totally incompetent, if others are to be believed.

[Silver_Shiney]

Barney, you are so right, apart from the last sentence, IMO it is the political elite who are all mainly ignorant muppets.

Excuse me, but Barney was right when he said the political elite ASSUME we're all ignorant muppets. However, you are right in saying that it is actually the policital elite who are.

[Manoverboard]

A respected spokesman for the IMF is most concerned that our financial outlook could be a tad grim ... anybody on a final salary pension scheme out there intending to vote to leave, do hope not

ps ... he wasn't a ' Call me Dave ' clone this time but knew his Pounds from his Roubles me thinks.

[oldbluefox]

The trouble is the IMF do not always get their forecasts right. I suspect the longer term prognosis for UK will be a whole lot rosier away from the clutches of the EU even if we do suffer a dip in the short term. I would much rather we were in charge of our own destiny rather than at the behest of a conglomerate of our European neighbours.

What happened to final salary pensions a number of years back when the economy collapsed. Where were the EU and the IMF then. My walking friend lost his pension and had to continue working to build something up. And that's when we were in the EU.

[Manoverboard]

Then let us accept that the short term will be grimmer than now, if we leave, but that in the longer term it will be rosier than it is now.

Now, I don't know about you, Foxy, but I seriously doubt that most of us on here are going to be here in the longer term ... so why are so many of you voting to leave ?

[towny44]

I just watched the first part of Nick Robinson's Them or us EU documentary and as an historic documentary it was excellent. I have to confess that it highlighted just how little I knew about what we were commiting to at the time, but it did remind me of why I was then an EEC supporter.
It also made me realise how clever De Gaulle was, he clearly understood how important UK membership would be in the long term, but obviously if he wanted the EEC to remain a Francophile organisation it was vital that the UK be excluded from its formative years.
I have now downloaded the second part and hope to understand what prompted my change of heart.

[Quizzical Bob]

The trouble is the IMF do not always get their forecasts right. I suspect the longer term prognosis for UK will be a whole lot rosier away from the clutches of the EU even if we do suffer a dip in the short term. I would much rather we were in charge of our own destiny rather than at the behest of a conglomerate of our European neighbours.

What happened to final salary pensions a number of years back when the economy collapsed. Where were the EU and the IMF then. My walking friend lost his pension and had to continue working to build something up. And that's when we were in the EU.

You suspect wrongly, I'm afraid. The current account deficit on our trade is almost at current levels at the moment and can only get worse outside the EU. Without foreign trade we either starve or freeze or both at the same time.

[towny44]

The trouble is the IMF do not always get their forecasts right. I suspect the longer term prognosis for UK will be a whole lot rosier away from the clutches of the EU even if we do suffer a dip in the short term. I would much rather we were in charge of our own destiny rather than at the behest of a conglomerate of our European neighbours.

What happened to final salary pensions a number of years back when the economy collapsed. Where were the EU and the IMF then. My walking friend lost his pension and had to continue working to build something up. And that's when we were in the EU.

You suspect wrongly, I'm afraid. The current account deficit on our trade is almost at current levels at the moment and can only get worse outside the EU. Without foreign trade we either starve or freeze or both at the same time.

QB, are you auditioning for Dad's Army by any chance, you would be a shoe in for Pvt Frazer, we're all doomed!
PS Why would trade cease if we left the EU? If the EU were stupid enough to impose tariffs, we could retaliate by demanding that company cars had to be of UK origin, in which case BMW, Mercedes, Volvo and Audi would suddenly find themselves making huge losses; and how long would their govts. last once the job losses start to mount up.
Grow up and grow a pair Bob.

[Quizzical Bob]

The trouble is the IMF do not always get their forecasts right. I suspect the longer term prognosis for UK will be a whole lot rosier away from the clutches of the EU even if we do suffer a dip in the short term. I would much rather we were in charge of our own destiny rather than at the behest of a conglomerate of our European neighbours.

What happened to final salary pensions a number of years back when the economy collapsed. Where were the EU and the IMF then. My walking friend lost his pension and had to continue working to build something up. And that's when we were in the EU.

You suspect wrongly, I'm afraid. The current account deficit on our trade is almost at current levels at the moment and can only get worse outside the EU. Without foreign trade we either starve or freeze or both at the same time.

QB, are you auditioning for Dad's Army by any chance, you would be a shoe in for Pvt Frazer, we're all doomed!

Indeed we would be, if we were so silly as to vote to leave.

[oldbluefox]

Surely we would be free to negotiate and trade world wide without the restrictions of EU regulations and tariffs were we to leave the EU. Is that not a positive?
There are plenty of markets out there other than EU whom I believe, need us more than we need them (if trade figures are to be believed).

[Silver_Shiney]

Surely we would be free to negotiate and trade world wide without the restrictions of EU regulations and tariffs were we to leave the EU. Is that not a positive?
There are plenty of markets out there other than EU whom I believe, need us more than we need them (if trade figures are to be believed).

quite so

[barney]

Gove said quite clearly on Sunday that after leaving the EU (note NOT EUROPE) he would NOT look for a deal on the EU single market if the terms were not favourable.
That is, trade is a two way street and European countries need to deal with us as much as we need to deal with them.

Back in '74 the UK was negotiating from a position of weakness because our home economy was a basket case.
The shoe is now very much on the other foot as we will be negotiating from a position of strength.

After hearing IDS telling us that Dave totally capitulated to Merkel, he is clearly more interested in his personal standing in the world than this country.
Shame on him and I wouldn't let him anywhere near a negotiation team in the future

[Quizzical Bob]

Gove said quite clearly on Sunday that after leaving the EU (note NOT EUROPE) he would NOT look for a deal on the EU single market if the terms were not favourable.
That is, trade is a two way street and European countries need to deal with us as much as we need to deal with them.

Back in '74 the UK was negotiating from a position of weakness because our home economy was a basket case.
The shoe is now very much on the other foot as we will be negotiating from a position of strength.

After hearing IDS telling us that Dave totally capitulated to Merkel, he is clearly more interested in his personal standing in the world than this country.
Shame on him and I wouldn't let him anywhere near a negotiation team in the future

We need what they sell more than they need what they buy.

[Quizzical Bob]

Surely we would be free to negotiate and trade world wide without the restrictions of EU regulations and tariffs were we to leave the EU. Is that not a positive?
There are plenty of markets out there other than EU whom I believe, need us more than we need them (if trade figures are to be believed).

quite so

Legally, after exit we would fall back onto WTO conditions which involve targets FFP.

How long do you think it would take to negotiate these new deals? At least 10 to 15 years are the best estimates. Any new deal with the EU would involve 27 parliaments none of whom would be feeling very generous or helpful towards us.

[barney]

"We need what they sell more than they need what they buy".

We NEED very little of it QB.

We like a bit of French cheese and wine but if it was cost prohibitive because of tariffs, I'd buy something else.
I drive a quite nice Mercedes, but would gladly change if it became too expensive.

My point is QB, there are always alternatives so it's in no ones interest to get silly about it.
IF they have no interest in selling there goods in the UK, the UK will move on and buy from elsewhere.

I will admit that if I had a business that solely relied on exports to the EU, I would be worried about my personal future, but if we leave it will not the end for our country, as some are suggesting.
I think we'd thrive as a nation.

We are a big player!

The reason that the US need us to remain is because we are their conduit into the EU.
Without us they would struggle to be heard as the Germans and French don't have much time for them.
If we're honest, the Germans and French don't have much time for us either but do like the £54 billion contributions

[Quizzical Bob]

"We need what they sell more than they need what they buy".

We NEED very little of it QB.

We like a bit of French cheese and wine but if it was cost prohibitive because of tariffs, I'd buy something else.
I drive a quite nice Mercedes, but would gladly change if it became too expensive.

My point is QB, there are always alternatives so it's in no ones interest to get silly about it.
IF they have no interest in selling there goods in the UK, the UK will move on and buy from elsewhere.

I will admit that if I had a business that solely relied on exports to the EU, I would be worried about my personal future, but if we leave it will not the end for our country, as some are suggesting.
I think we'd thrive as a nation.

We are a big player!

The reason that the US need us to remain is because we are their conduit into the EU.
Without us they would struggle to be heard as the Germans and French don't have much time for them.
If we're honest, the Germans and French don't have much time for us either but do like the £54 billion contributions

We need a lot (nearly half) of our food and we need a lot of energy. We do not survive on cheese and wine, at least I don't, and we can only pay for these imports by what we sell abroad. Personally my days of exporting 50% of our products to the EU are long past but I have the future of the younger generation to consider. We are only a big player because we are in the EU. The rest of the world has moved on in the last couple of generations and doesn't give two hoots about us.

[barney]

The whole thing is a con QB and has been since the very start.

Any reasonably educated person who can do basic maths can work that one out.

You give me a XXXX of money and I'll give you back XX
In return for that wonderful deal, I'll also allow you to buy our products.

??????

What's not to love !

[towny44]

Legally, after exit we would fall back onto WTO conditions which involve targets FFP.
How long do you think it would take to negotiate these new deals? At least 10 to 15 years are the best estimates. Any new deal with the EU would involve 27 parliaments none of whom would be feeling very generous or helpful towards us.

We need a lot (nearly half) of our food and we need a lot of energy. We do not survive on cheese and wine, at least I don't, and we can only pay for these imports by what we sell abroad. Personally my days of exporting 50% of our products to the EU are long past but I have the future of the younger generation to consider. We are only a big player because we are in the EU. The rest of the world has moved on in the last couple of generations and doesn't give two hoots about us.

Bob, Don't know where you get the fall back onto WTO conditions from, my understanding is that there would be a minimum of 2 years grace to negotiate new terms, and please remember we already comply with all the EU regulatory conditions, so to compare our renegotiation to those for new trade deals is typical Bremain scare mongering. As others have repeatedly said, the EU need our export markets far more than we need their's so we negotiate from a very strong position, not the reverse.
As to the concerns about how much food or energy we need I would reiterate the above point, they need to sell to us and this would reflect in how readily they would need to come to an acceptable agreement.
So stop being a scaredy cat and man up and show some spirit.

[david63]

One point that I have only just found out is that if we were to leave the EU then not only would we have to negotiate our trade deal with the EU but also with the rest of the world, and there are many countries where that would not be hight on their agenda.

[towny44]

One point that I have only just found out is that if we were to leave the EU then not only would we have to negotiate our trade deal with the EU but also with the rest of the world, and there are many countries where that would not be hight on their agenda.

David, as a net importer from just about everywhere I would imagine it would become the number one issue with most countries.

[oldbluefox]

If we had a trade surplus I may be re-considering but we don't.
We still haven't addressed the issue of uncontrolled immigration, or the EU Supreme Court. Would that be because, under the current arrangements there is nothing we can do about it? Brexit/Bremain is about much more than trading arrangements. (There are others but I can't be bothered to think about them).

[barney]

One point that I have only just found out is that if we were to leave the EU then not only would we have to negotiate our trade deal with the EU but also with the rest of the world, and there are many countries where that would not be hight on their agenda.

all this re-negotiation appears to be another red herring David, according to Chris Grayling

The example he gave went along these lines.

Trade minister of UK to the Trade minister of (say) Morocco

Are you happy with the existing terms that you had with the UK via the EU - answer yes.
Are you happy to trade with the UK outside the EU on the same terms - answer yes.
Negotiation complete !

The fact that we are already compliant with most legislation means that there is not that much to discuss