EU referendum - Stay or Leave?

[Not so ancient mariner]

There just seems too many disingenuous statements being made by activists on both sides of the argument. I have to admit the 'out' campaign seem to be the worst for this, largely due to the utterances of one character by the name of Boris!

[Mervyn and Trish]

Just looking at the poll results on here they are almost the opposite of the latest "official" poll but the other interesting point that was brought out on the political show last night is that there is a greater percentage (sorry Merv) of elderly voters in favour of leaving than there is younger voters - not sure where the dividing line is.

Now without any disrespect to any members of this site I would guess that explains the divergence.

None taken!

That's probably true and probably because the older generations can recall life without the EU so it's not such a leap into the unknown.

[Peter D]

Can we, politicians, celebrities try and get away from the 'But we will lose this EU funding and that EU funding' if we leave.

It is not EU funding, it is UK funding that has been given to the EU for us to belong to thier club and after they take thier cut, give some of it back to us to fund this and that.

It is like putting your wages into a bank and then saying you cannot switch banks because you will lose the money that your current bank gives to you, out of your funds, to fund your lifestyle.

[Silver_Shiney]

Can we, politicians, celebrities try and get away from the 'But we will lose this EU funding and that EU funding' if we leave.

It is not EU funding, it is UK funding that has been given to the EU for us to belong to thier club and after they take thier cut, give some of it back to us to fund this and that.

It is like putting your wages into a bank and then saying you cannot switch banks because you will lose the money that your current bank gives to you, out of your funds, to fund your lifestyle.

One of the clearest illustrations/explanations I've seen to date. Thank you

[oldbluefox]

George Osborne tells us this morning that house prices could increase by up to 18% and interest rates go up. First of all notice the use of the words 'could' and 'up to' meaning none of this may happen, and as Chancellor he should know. Scare tactics? Essentially he does not know, does he?
Ironically I have been led to believe that house prices are too high anyway, and certainly interest rates have been suppressed for a long time, which has done nothing to encourage anyone to save so I can actually see some benefits if George is correct.
As so often happens it's politicians contradicting themselves to suit their purposes.

[Silver_Shiney]

House prices have been WAY too high for years and a major correction is long overdue. Unfortunately, for those like Welshie who have to rent, once the correction takes place, will landlords drop their rents?


No, I didn't think so, either.

[Quizzical Bob]

There will be no such deal. Any negotiations would take maybe 10 to 15 years and involve 27 other parliaments, not all of whom like us very much

We need the EU far more than they need us. If you think that international trade is just cars and cheese then you are very much mistaken.

Bob, since you are clearly unable to appreciate that the EU need to trade with us, far more than we need to trade with them, then why should we believe anything you tell us.

We represent 16% of the EU's exports.
46% of our exports go to the EU.

Believe that.

Where do you get your statistics from?

Voilà:

https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/
https://fullfact.org/europe/do-half-uks ... go-europe/

(There are plenty of others)

A critical point is that the EU's exports to us do not come from every EU state, any one of whom could veto or delay any proposed trade deal for as long as they wanted to.

[Quizzical Bob]

Can we, politicians, celebrities try and get away from the 'But we will lose this EU funding and that EU funding' if we leave.

It is not EU funding, it is UK funding that has been given to the EU for us to belong to thier club and after they take thier cut, give some of it back to us to fund this and that.

It is like putting your wages into a bank and then saying you cannot switch banks because you will lose the money that your current bank gives to you, out of your funds, to fund your lifestyle.

Correct, but we would most likely have to pay an access fee anyway but we would not receive any of that back. Such fee would probably be about the same as our current net contributions.

[Silver_Shiney]

Such fee would probably be about the same as our current net contributions.

or, then again, not. Or possibly less. Or possibly zero. And, if any, could be offset against the fees we charge.

[barney]

Says QB -but we would most likely have to pay an access fee anyway but we would not receive any of that back

alternatively, we could pay no access fee whatsoever.

Many are missing the point (inc Dave) that we will be 'negotiating' from a point of strength.

As has been pointed out already but seems to have been ignored for convenience of argument, if we left the EU, the UK would then become the EU's biggest export market of countries outside the EU.
Again, that isn't opinion, that is fact.

So, would the EU be dictating terms OR would they take a long hard look at the situation and come to something mutually agreeable.
Would they cut their nose of to spite their face.
I doubt it.

Gove has already said publicly that he would not be looking for a trade deal in the short term.
He's expects things to stay pretty much as thet are trade wise, but without the interference from Brussels.

[towny44]

Voilà:

https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/
https://fullfact.org/europe/do-half-uks ... go-europe/

(There are plenty of others)

A critical point is that the EU's exports to us do not come from every EU state, any one of whom could veto or delay any proposed trade deal for as long as they wanted to.

Bob, I cannot envisage any net exporter to the UK wanting to exercise a veto, there may be some who have competitive products to our exports who might want to veto our imports to the EU. However the big ticket exports like jet engines and aircraft wings don't really have competition, and even for our car exports I think it unlikely that any competing country would want to instigate a trade war.
I still believe that we are in an exceptional position, as the EU'S main export market, to negotiate a truly favourable agreement.

[Quizzical Bob]

Says QB -but we would most likely have to pay an access fee anyway but we would not receive any of that back

alternatively, we could pay no access fee whatsoever.

Many are missing the point (inc Dave) that we will be 'negotiating' from a point of strength.

As has been pointed out already but seems to have been ignored for convenience of argument, if we left the EU, the UK would then become the EU's biggest export market of countries outside the EU.
Again, that isn't opinion, that is fact.

So, would the EU be dictating terms OR would they take a long hard look at the situation and come to something mutually agreeable.
Would they cut their nose of to spite their face.
I doubt it.

Gove has already said publicly that he would not be looking for a trade deal in the short term.
He's expects things to stay pretty much as thet are trade wise, but without the interference from Brussels.

You're talking about the EU as though it is one body speaking with one voice. Getting any sort of agreement amongst the 27 members would take a very long time and it would need total agreement in order to get it passed. There would be a lot of very bad feeling against Britain amongst those members who are not too bothered about trading with us.

Some sort of access fee is a certainty. Nobody else gets totally free access to the market so why would we?

What is this interference from Brussels of which you speak? I keep hearing references to it but no solid examples.

[Silver_Shiney]

You're talking about the EU as though it is one body speaking with one voice. Getting any sort of agreement amongst the 27 members would take a very long time and it would need total agreement in order to get it passed. There would be a lot of very bad feeling against Britain amongst those members who are not too bothered about trading with us.

Be that as it may, they will still want to purchase what we are selling, and they'll still want customers for what they're selling - if they won't sell to us, they will either have to hope that non-EU/member states will suddenly take up the surplus or they'll have to lay people off to prevent overproduction.

What is this interference from Brussels of which you speak? I keep hearing references to it but no solid examples.

I did mention the other day the fact that they can overrule our judiciary....

[david63]

The bottom line with all of the EU debate, wherever it takes place, is that nobody knows what will happen whether we stay in or we leave as there is no precedent - everything that is being said is nothing more than speculation.

[Silver_Shiney]

This is very true - but who's speculation is the more accurate?

[oldbluefox]

...................... and we do know what the EU offers and does not offer. For my liking, not a lot.

[david63]

This is very true - but who's speculation is the more accurate?

If I knew the answer to that then I would be winning the jackpot on the Lottery tonight

[Stephen]

The bottom line with all of the EU debate, wherever it takes place, is that nobody knows what will happen whether we stay in or we leave as there is no precedent - everything that is being said is nothing more than speculation.

Never a truer word spoken

But I'm considering putting our house on the market before the price drops

[Mervyn and Trish]

The problem with most of the discussion is it compares life outside the EU with life inside a functioning EU. But that's not the options. The EU is corrupt, failing and broken. QBob's point, which he presents as the difficulty about leaving, that the EU is not a single voice but 27 members who can't agree about anything, is precisely why we need to get out. You're a businessman QBob. Tell us in all honesty would you try to run a business the way the EU is run, with 27 board members, any one of whom could veto any decision? You'd be bankrupt in a month.

[Quizzical Bob]

The problem with most of the discussion is it compares life outside the EU with life inside a functioning EU. But that's not the options. The EU is corrupt, failing and broken. QBob's point, which he presents as the difficulty about leaving, that the EU is not a single voice but 27 members who can't agree about anything, is precisely why we need to get out. You're a businessman QBob. Tell us in all honesty would you try to run a business the way the EU is run, with 27 board members, any one of whom could veto any decision? You'd be bankrupt in a month.

Well, it isn't a business it's a political alliance. As my MEP once told me "it's a marriage of convenience and not a marriage of love"

You're right about running any organisation, too many people around the table means that any decision will take forever. Our local authority has 44 councillors which means that they have to form sub-committees and working parties and hold hundreds of meetings. No board should consist of more than 12 members but as a local executive once told me, any committee should have an odd number, and three's too many.

But I didn't present these difficulties as an argument against leaving, just pointing out the difficulties of getting any agreement after we had left.

To my mind the EU is working perfectly acceptably as it is now. Are you suggesting that we should have ever-closer political union?

[Mervyn and Trish]

No. To my mind the EU is failing miserably and ever closer union is the last thing we need. We are different countries with different cultures and different histories. A common market was a great idea. A united states of Europe is not.

[towny44]

No. To my mind the EU is failing miserably and ever closer union is the last thing we need. We are different countries with different cultures and different histories. A common market was a great idea. A united states of Europe is not.

Here, here, well said that man, wherever you are.

[Silver_Shiney]

Ditto

[oldbluefox]

Apparently prices will rise if we leave the EU.
Prices have risen whilst we have been in the EU. It's called inflation!!!
I'm getting a little tired of these scare stories which are based on half truths and intended to influence voters by fear.
Dig around and you may find something closer to the truth.

[Quizzical Bob]

No. To my mind the EU is failing miserably and ever closer union is the last thing we need. We are different countries with different cultures and different histories. A common market was a great idea. A united states of Europe is not.

You said earlier that the EU was failing and broken. I raised the somewhat rhetorical question about ever closer union because that cannot happen with the EU in its present format because of the failings that you have already presented. There are so many members that agreement will never be reached. Some people may say that this is what they desire but it won't happen under the present system, and Britain can make sure of that by staying in the EU.

Why do you consider that the EU is 'failing miserably'? What would you rather have it do? To my mind it is working exactly the way it should.