Current Affairs

[Silver_Shiney]

They're now also saying that our food prices will drop. Don't know how they work that one out, but would be very happy if it happened.

[barney]

Let's dispel one common misconception guys, there will be no trade deal with the EU.

Canada & the USA have been trying for years, with no end result.

The latest rejection of the Canadian deal was a Belgian province of Walloon.

That is the major downfall in the system, where one tiny province can reject a deal if they have concerns, and that is exactly the reason why the EU will destroy itself from within.

The next common misconception is that you need a trade agreement to trade. That is nonsense.

All of the EU leaders, including the current President (Malta) have said that the EU must stand by it's four principles, two of which are unacceptable to the UK people.
Those being the Supremacy of the European court and the free movement of people.
The free movement of goods and services are fine with most of us.

So, now let's move on the wonderful EU that some are desperately clinging to.

I'd advise that you stop reading the Guardian and start looking at a few European papers on line.

There are serious problems all over the continent which make many of ours look trivial.
There are also serious rifts in different countries on where their futures lie.
Even the vey liberal Denmark have introduced internal borders as they have had enough of the migrant spike, similar to what we have endured for years.
I read a piece yesterday saying that only 1 in 5 of defendants in their judicial system are now Danish. The rest being new migrants.
The ordinary people are getting near to the end of their tether because their leaders are not listening.

Sound familiar?

At the end of the day, Europe isn't going anywhere and nor is the UK.

We will continue to make and sell things to them, and they will continue to do the same.

If the UK economy tanks because of punative measures, then the EU economy will also tank.
If the UK tumbles into deep recession, then the tourist industry in Europe will suffer badly.
If the agreed tariffs are too high, we lose but so do they.

So, when the dust settles, the UK will be out of the 'single market' with full access to the single market with tariffs, pretty much like every other country outside of the EU.

We will not need visas to travel.
We will need work permits to work or settle, as they will here.

Seems a win/win to me.

The Uk has always been an outsider so now they can get on with the real business of a fully integrated Federal Europe, without us sniping from the sidelines.

[Silver_Shiney]

Nice one, Barney

[Stephen]

Common sense to me. Why would anyone cut off their nose to spite their face.
But you can bet there will be some bureaucrat somewhere wanting to muddy the waters.

[towny44]

Barney, whilst I agree with you on a lot of Brexit issues I do hope your conclusions on trade prove inaccurate. The EU does not trade well with the rest of the world, it is in fact the worlds largest trade cartel which, through its long term influence at the WTO, and through countless GATT discussions, it has managed to ensure that WTO tariffs on its essential industrial products remain high and tariffs on its major imported commodities are low. As a result there are very few imports of manufactured goods into the EU from ROW, and why there are so many manufacturing sites of foreign companies now in the EU.
I do agree with your hypothesis that if the UK economy tanks, then so will the EU, but the way to prevent this cannot be to fall back on WTO tariffs, this just would not work. So IMO we need a trade agreement with minimal tariffs which enables both economies to prosper, a very difficult but not impossible task if both parties allow their trade organisations to be involved in the discussions and not just the politicians.

[barney]

Yeah, that's pretty much what I said John.

There will no doubt be tariffs of some description, but I'd predict that they will be minimal.

I was talking to a lovely lady from the Malta tourism board and given that the vast majority of tourists in to Malta are from the UK, she was quite worried that we would stop going. Their entire economy depends on it.

Tourism is massive in London and here in the South East, so the prospects of visas to travel are absolute nonsense and just the latest from Project Fear.

I'm quite convinced that the likes of Clegg & co are just desperate for it all to go wrong so that can be proved correct.
It has of course never entered the arrogant b*ggers head that it could possibly be he who is wrong.

The simple fact is that the majority who voted, voted for change.
If people vote for change, they expect change.

If you take in to account that the Remain campaign had the ball firmly in their court before the canvassing started, the 30 million people DIDN'T vote for the status quo. That's Leave voters and those who didn't vote combined.
Surely that must tell the Establishment something?
But no, they just say that WE got it wrong because we didn't know what we were voting for.
Well, this one did.

[Silver_Shiney]

What's wrong with having visas? We have to get visas to visit non-EU countries and don't think too hard about paying for them if it's a place we're keen to visit. A visa to come here on holiday might help stop the abuse of the NHS by people who come here purely to use it and then scarper back home without paying

[oldbluefox]

Two excellent posts Barney and I agree with you 100%.
The sooner we extricate ourselves from this behemoth that is the EU the better. Of course the politicians will not be keen as they can see a nice little bolt hole for themselves disappearing when they retire and a whole slice of self perpetuated governance being wiped out; fewer jobs for the boys (and girls). Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
Seven years of negotiation for trade deals with Canada scuppered by a small province in Belgium despite all the other nations agreeing to it? how much will that have cost? How many people will have been travelling back and forth to set it up? Why has it taken so long? This whole one exercise defies logic but is typical of the way the EU works.And who is paying for it all....................................?

[qbman1]

I've decided to replace all the foreign plants in my flower beds with British ones...I'm taking back control of my borders.

[Silver_Shiney]

you little sow and sow, you!

[towny44]

Yeah, that's pretty much what I said John.

There will no doubt be tariffs of some description, but I'd predict that they will be minimal.

No Barney this is what you said

Let's dispel one common misconception guys, there will be no trade deal with the EU

So, when the dust settles, the UK will be out of the 'single market' with full access to the single market with tariffs, pretty much like every other country outside of the EU.

Seems a win/win to me.

Every other country outside the EU either has to have some sort of trade deal, or in the case of exotic fruit and veg. no competition within the EU so the tariff is nil or very low, OR they pay full WTO tariffs, something we definitely do not want to have imposed on our exports, but neither will they.
So the outcome has to be a specific negotiated trade deal, and Boris might have to bend over backwards to the Walloons.

[Stephen]

Brexit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785

So much for the country voting. What a farce. And meanwhile we still plough billions into the EU.

[Silver_Shiney]

Indeed. My fear is that the will of the people will be overturned and we'll be forced to remain in the EU.

[Jack Staff]

Brexiters who demanded sovereignty of Parliament outraged by sovereignty of Parliament.

[Frank Manning]

Common sense may yet prevail either way. The Government may be forced to reveal its negotiating strategy in detail prior to a commons vote, and there may yet be an amendment at that time requiring the Government to come back to the house with the results of the negotiations before it approves the final Brexit. In that case the Brexiteers will have got their way under the very parliamentary supremacy which they argued was a central reason for leaving the EU. The upside of which may be that we will not have a headlong rush to get out at any price as advocated by some of the Tory headbangers, but that our democratically elected Parliament will perhaps approve a reasonable settlement.

I fear that we are going to see the sneering Farage and his entourage on TV for months to come.

[Silver_Shiney]

Sovereignty of our nation, Jack, not to be dictated to by the whims of other countries. There is a difference.

While I have no problem with the House discussing the exit strategy, I do not see the sense in letting the EU parliament know what that strategy is until we're ready to present it.

[barney]

Brexiters who demanded sovereignty of Parliament outraged by sovereignty of Parliament.

shock horror !!!!

I agree with Jack staff

The main reason I voted leave was to uphold the power of our Parliament and Courts over the EU as currently exists.

By giving Parliament the opportunity to ratify triggering Article 50 puts it to bed once and for all.

If Parliament votes against, the a general election is on the cards and many, many MPs will be looking for work.

Alan Johnson in Hull, was one of the main speakers in Pro Remain, but his constituents voted out by 70% to 30%

If there was an election, he would have to stand down, or risk looking a fool by being so out of touch.

[Silver_Shiney]

I would tend to agree with Jack too, as long as I could be assured that those pressing for debate on how and when Article 50 should be invoked are not surreptitiously planning on blocking it altogether. At present, I have no confidence that this is not the case.

[Onelife]

Sovereignty of our nation, Jack, not to be dictated to by the whims of other countries. There is a difference.

While I have no problem with the House discussing the exit strategy, I do not see the sense in letting the EU parliament know what that strategy is until we're ready to present it.

Agree Mr Shiney.

Disclosing where we might be willing to compromise before the end game is a sure fire way of ending up with a poor deal.

I was listening to a UKIP, MEP this afternoon "who seemed to know what he was talking about" saying that the decision made today won't stand up should it go before the supreme court.

[Golden Princess]

To some extent hasn't the negotiating strategy already been revealed, or at least hinted at, to Nissan and Renault and therefore the French Government, whilst we know nothing!

[oldbluefox]

as long as I could be assured that those pressing for debate on how and when Article 50 should be invoked are not surreptitiously planning on blocking it altogether. At present, I have no confidence that this is not the case.

Nay lad!! Surely you are not sceptical as to the intentions of our elected politicians although I see Bliar is still lurking on the sidelines, the very Bliar who promised us referenda in 2004 and 2005 and then reneged due to a change in 'constitutional policy'.
I don't trust them either.

[Onelife]

To some extent hasn't the negotiating strategy already been revealed, or at least hinted at, to Nissan and Renault and therefore the French Government, whilst we know nothing!

Hi Princess.....Which only goes to prove that at the end of the day each foreign company will look after its own interests when deciding where and who to do deals with.....its called planning for the future and l dare say there will be many more such deals being negotiated with or without the their respective governments knowledge.....but most definitely behind the backs of the closed doors of the EU hierarchy

Regards

Keith

[Golden Princess]

How can we know if it is behind the backs of the closed doors of the EU hierarchy?

[Mervyn and Trish]

If the will of the people gets blocked by MPs I think retribution will be bloody at the next election. I will be keeping a very close eye on my own MP's behaviour and if she tries to impose her will over that of her constituents she won't get my vote next time round.

It's a different matter if the deal eventually done is not as we all hope but any attempt now to derail the process based on speculation would be entirely unacceptable

[barney]

In my humble opinion, the " four founding principles of the EU " won't amount to anything when the chips are down and millions of Euros and jobs are at risk.

Juncker & Tusk will be over ruled by the money men from Germany and France.

On reading more due to the Nissan agreement with our Government, the German car industry alone exports nearly £20 billion to the UK market per annum.
So, a 10% tariff on car imports/exports both ways will see that plunge.

When the s*it hits the fan, we'll see just how much power the Eurocrats really wield.

Deals will be done left, right and centre, but not through the traditional EU method of dragging everything out for years.
Juncker & co will be side lined.

Unemployment in Spain is 22% with youth unemployment at 42%.
So UK tariffs on imported Spanish fruit won't do them any favours will it?
Ireland is even more vulnerable with their exports.
60% of their beef comes here.

Any recession in the UK will be doubled in the EU and the money men know it.