Current Affairs

[Jack Staff]

On a different subject. My suspicions that sterling has been driven down by the remain leaning foreign currency market makers has been confirmed. Otherwise why would a possible threatened quarter per cent increase in bank rate lead to a 3.5% increase in its value?

The "remain leaning foreign currency market makers" only have one aim - to make money. Just the same as everyone else, except the Brexiters who seem to want everyone to be poorer.
Brexit means the Pound is tanking.
Because the Pound is low all goods are more expensive. (even the potato grown up the road has to be transported using fuel priced in Dollars).
This is known as inflation.
The recognised way to control inflation is to raise interest rates.
A raise in interest rates means the Pound is more attractive to those foreign market traders.
I hope that answers your question.

[Jack Staff]

A currency's value seems to be governed by confidence more that anything else.

We are very fortunate that we didn't go in the Euro when the opportunity arose or we would be in a similar position to Greece.

Many experts at the time said we were crazy not to. Remember?

The £/$ is now back to it's average trading rate over the last few years (excluding the spike last June when a remain result was nailed on)
Pound/euro has always fluctuated wildly.
I can remember 1.30 euros and I can remember 1.05 euros. All of which while being in the EU.

At the end of the day, currency fluctuation is simply so traders can make or lose money.

BTW, anyone listen to Junckers speech this week.
He and Verhofstadt are doing Leave's job for them.
Any doubts about a United States of Europe now ?

The absolute fallacy about leave the EU or the status quo has been well and truly blown out of the water.
More EU is coming for the remaining countries, like it or not.
I think we've dodged a bullet there.

You are spot on Barney with a currency's value seems to be governed by confidence more that anything else. It is a shame that the world does not share your confidence in the future.
Your memory is failing you slightly, here is a graph of the last ten years....
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... R&view=10Y
As you can see the Pound/Euro is nearing the levels it fell to in the financial crisis of 2008/2009 when the Euro faired much better than the Pound.

Now Britain may be leaving the EU there is no voice or veto inside to stop the US of E.
I think we just handed it to them on a plate.

[Stephen]

I heard that too. How does that work? Are they wealthier than India? Anyway it's our money so let's change the rules.

Totally agree, where is Deli Alli's middle finger when you need it?

Probably in the 'look after me first till'.

[oldbluefox]

No offence to you Jack but I would rather listen to this chap,
or this one.

[Stephen]

They're at it again. The scum


Parsons Green: London Underground blast is terror incident
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41278545

[Jack Staff]

No offence to you Jack but I would rather listen to this chap,
or this one.

He only has and has ever had, his own pockets in mind....
"The decision means the end of manufacturing for Dyson in Britain after last year's decision to move vacuum cleaner production to Malaysia, where production costs are 30pc lower. The transfer resulted in the loss of 800 jobs."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2860 ... aysia.html

Old article, but he is well known for his anti-UK methods.

[oldbluefox]

It's disgraceful that any one human being can go out to deliberately maim and kill innocent people in the name of their religion or point of view. I presume it will be daesch related but whatever the reason it is cowardly and disgusting.

[Jack Staff]

...or this one.

"We need a credible fallback option" - as we have already discussed, WTO is not a credible option. We can pretend it is, but the EU knows it isn't. The EU knows we are either staying or crashing out catastrophically.

Even he says (a poster boy for Brexit Central) that we can expect ten years of pain!

[oldbluefox]

As I say, I know who I would rather believe.

[Jack Staff]

As I say, I know who I would rather believe.

So no UK manufacturing and years of economic pain.

[barney]

...or this one.

"We need a credible fallback option" - as we have already discussed, WTO is not a credible option. We can pretend it is, but the EU knows it isn't. The EU knows we are either staying or crashing out catastrophically.

Even he says (a poster boy for Brexit Central) that we can expect ten years of pain!

Your arguments appear quite lucid Jack, until the simple fact that pretty well every scare story imaginable, that was definitely going to happen, hasn't.
Things are going to get bad in the future is hardly a rational thing to say.
Over my many years in business, things are always going to get worse, yet here we all are.
All spending thousands on cruise holidays.
Things go up, things go down.
Life goes on and so it will after March 2019, not matter what the rabid Remoaners say.

Anyone who doesn't wish to remain in our country when 'the world ends' has been given plenty of notice.

[Jack Staff]

...or this one.

"We need a credible fallback option" - as we have already discussed, WTO is not a credible option. We can pretend it is, but the EU knows it isn't. The EU knows we are either staying or crashing out catastrophically.

Even he says (a poster boy for Brexit Central) that we can expect ten years of pain!

Your arguments appear quite lucid Jack, until the simple fact that pretty well every scare story imaginable, that was definitely going to happen, hasn't.
Things are going to get bad in the future is hardly a rational thing to say.
Over my many years in business, things are always going to get worse, yet here we all are.
All spending thousands on cruise holidays.
Things go up, things go down.
Life goes on and so it will after March 2019, not matter what the rabid Remoaners say.

Anyone who doesn't wish to remain in our country when 'the world ends' has been given plenty of notice.

So you still believe in the sunlit uplands that Boris promised you? And the £350 million for the NHS?

[towny44]

On a different subject. My suspicions that sterling has been driven down by the remain leaning foreign currency market makers has been confirmed. Otherwise why would a possible threatened quarter per cent increase in bank rate lead to a 3.5% increase in its value?

The "remain leaning foreign currency market makers" only have one aim - to make money. Just the same as everyone else, except the Brexiters who seem to want everyone to be poorer.
Brexit means the Pound is tanking.
Because the Pound is low all goods are more expensive. (even the potato grown up the road has to be transported using fuel priced in Dollars).
This is known as inflation.
The recognised way to control inflation is to raise interest rates.
A raise in interest rates means the Pound is more attractive to those foreign market traders.
I hope that answers your question.

Ah gee Jack thank you so much for giving me the benefit of your expert knowledge of economics and currency fluctuations, what would we do without your help and guidance.

[Manoverboard]

Sunlit uplands, that's the way ... with optimism but I deffo don't want the NHS to get their hands on the £350 million cos they will simply waste it and another opportunity will be lost.

[oldbluefox]

As I say, I know who I would rather believe.

So no UK manufacturing and years of economic pain.

Tell that to those who make HP Sauce, Terry's chocolate oranges and Cadbury's chocolate, just for starters.

[Jack Staff]

Ah gee Jack thank you so much for giving me the benefit of your expert knowledge of economics and currency fluctuations, what would we do without your help and guidance.

No problem, happy to help.

[Jack Staff]

As I say, I know who I would rather believe.

So no UK manufacturing and years of economic pain.

Tell that to those who make HP Sauce, Terry's chocolate oranges and Cadbury's chocolate, just for starters.

HP sauce made in Elst, Netherlands. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HP_Sauce
Terry's chocolate orange, manufactured near Jankowice, Poland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terry%27s ... ate_Orange
I think Cadbury do still manufacture here, but as a subsidiary of Kraft, that can't be guaranteed in future.

[oldbluefox]

Quite. These products have all been lost to countries within the EU. Cadbury's 300g bars are made in an expanded factory in Wroclaw, Poland. These are the only products which readily come to mind but there are many others.
As a consequence of the EU we have already lost manufacturing so your comment about "no UK manufacturing" looks thin when you consider it has already happened.

Moving away from economics I presume you would be happy with Mr Juncker's idea of a Federal Europe with ever deeper integration, a Federal Army and to move more power away from member states, and towards Brussels.

[qbman1]

Didn't someone also mention recently that the ultimate aim is a President of Europe too ?

[Mervyn and Trish]

Jack's got his eye on that job...

[Jack Staff]

Quite. These products have all been lost to countries within the EU. Cadbury's 300g bars are made in an expanded factory in Wroclaw, Poland. These are the only products which readily come to mind but there are many others.
As a consequence of the EU we have already lost manufacturing so your comment about "no UK manufacturing" looks thin when you consider it has already happened.

Moving away from economics I presume you would be happy with Mr Juncker's idea of a Federal Europe with ever deeper integration, a Federal Army and to move more power away from member states, and towards Brussels.

Exactly. Manufacturing has long gone. How are we going to earn our keep without something to sell?
Up until we have been achieving this mainly because of our service industries, mostly the City of London. Almost daily now there are reports of relocations, mainly to Frankfurt, but other locations such as Dublin and Amsterdam are all keen to take the business we are throwing away.

My feelings on the future are of Europe are of no consequence. I am however worried that Britain will no longer have any input into that future and all the scare stories put about by the Brexiters can now come true. Without Britain's influence to stop the further integration we could become their lap dog. But why are you worried about that? I thought you guys say that Europe is falling apart anyway?

[towny44]

Exactly. Manufacturing has long gone. How are we going to earn our keep without something to sell?
Up until we have been achieving this mainly because of our service industries, mostly the City of London. Almost daily now there are reports of relocations, mainly to Frankfurt, but other locations such as Dublin and Amsterdam are all keen to take the business we are throwing away.

My feelings on the future are of Europe are of no consequence. I am however worried that Britain will no longer have any input into that future and all the scare stories put about by the Brexiters can now come true. Without Britain's influence to stop the further integration we could become their lap dog. But why are you worried about that? I thought you guys say that Europe is falling apart anyway?

Jack, that's why it is in the EU's interest to agree a free trade deal since they sell us far more than we sell to them.
Come on Jack do keep up with the pace of these discussions or we will begin to have doubts about you.

[david63]

Let's be pragmatic about all this Brexit talk - we have no idea either now or at any time in the future whether we will/would be better in or out as there will be no benchmark. Likewise with whatever deal we get (if we get one and I am not holding my breath on that happening!) some will think that it is a good deal others will think that it is a bad deal but there will be nothing to measure it against.

We might end up with what is considered the worst possible outcome but without a benchmark it could actually be far better than any other option, on the other hand it could be far worse - we will never know.

One thing is for sure no matter how things go - there will be winners and there will be losers, that is the nature of life and at the end of the day it will not matter one bit because world economics will dictate our fate.

[Jack Staff]

Let's be pragmatic about all this Brexit talk - we have no idea either now or at any time in the future whether we will/would be better in or out as there will be no benchmark. Likewise with whatever deal we get (if we get one and I am not holding my breath on that happening!) some will think that it is a good deal others will think that it is a bad deal but there will be nothing to measure it against.

We might end up with what is considered the worst possible outcome but without a benchmark it could actually be far better than any other option, on the other hand it could be far worse - we will never know.

One thing is for sure no matter how things go - there will be winners and there will be losers, that is the nature of life and at the end of the day it will not matter one bit because world economics will dictate our fate.

This sounds like a game of Russian roulette and what will be will be.

My advice would be don't play Russian roulette.

[towny44]

Sterling has just finished the week at 1.1355 to the euro, against a low of 1.08 on 29th August that is over a 5% increase. All that for a measly quarter percent increase in the Bank rate, which is great for holidaymakers, oh but hang on a minute the school holidays have now finished, could there be some correlation there, I'm sure Jack will have an answer, not necessarily the correct one of course.