Brexit

[Gill W]

I think we can reasonably assume that virtually every Government and Council Department plus the Utilities and Key Players in the Commercial World will be conducting contingency plans for the main shades of Brexit … they have always done so and have contingency staff for the purpose.

You appear to be saying that it’s not even worth raising an eyebrow that the people that prepare for civil disasters are planning for Brexit. What with Brexit NOT being a disease, natural disaster, or act of terrorism, but something that is government policy.

Your Brexity faith is strong.

[barney]

Does anyone on this thread have a friend, family member, loved one, who has diabetes? Cancer?

GP, they probably have, but it’s Project Fear to even think about the stockpiling of medicines, so they’ll just guffaw and scoff at your question.


I have to say, I think the Brexiters’ behaviour on this thread is now truly bizarre. The govt appears to be treating a no deal Brexit as an emergency situation, and the Jolly Brexiter Boys think it’s a big joke.

Let’s hope they’re still laughing in March if there’s a no deal Brexit.

Hi Gill.
As I've said previously, my sister in law is currently seconded to DexEu from the DWP.
She tells me that contingency planning is quite well advanced for any scenario. (she is a staunch remainer by the way)

If you cast your mind back to pre referendum, Cameron's government did nothing in advance because they did not expect the outcome.
A hard lesson has been learned and this Government are determined not to get caught with their trousers down again.
As much as I don't like the Tories, this planning is good government.
They are not treating Brexit as an emergency situation but merely doing what they would be expected to do.
That is, cover as many bases as possible.

You seem slightly obsessed with 'no deal Brexit' if I may say so.
There is actually no such thing as a no deal Brexit.

There are three possible scenarios.
The EU and UK agree a trade deal.
The EU and UK agree some sort of middle ground fudge (most likely in my opinion)
The EU and UK continue business on WTO terms.

Under WTO terms, the UK can if it wishes, decide to cancel any import tariffs on goods coming into the country, from the EU countries and any other. You don't have to have tariffs under WTO rules. Nor are you compelled to have border checks.
The only caveat is you must be fair to all. So, if we dropped tariffs from say Germany, we would have to drop them for all others in the World Trade Organisition.
The decision would be entirely up to us.

Should we decide to keep a level of tariffs on imports, again that would be our decision.
Most countries operate on recipricol terms, but many others don't.

I know that nothing will ever convince you that Brexit will be anything but a total disaster, but the reality is somewhat different.
Things will be different, because the majority voted for change.
You cannot vote for change and expect things to stay the same.

By nature, I'm not too inclined to worry about things that MIGHT happen
I haven't managed to keep my boyish good looks by being a worrier.

Golden Princess keeps on about how disasterous things have been already.
Well, I've noticed no difference at all.
Have you? Really?
A slight drop in the pound, but the laws of finance will correct that over time.

Project Fear is now a busted flush for most people.
The boy who cried wolf.
What could happen?
What might happen?
What if?

Well, as the old saying goes, if my aunty had a doo da she'd be my uncle.

[Manoverboard]

I think we can reasonably assume that virtually every Government and Council Department plus the Utilities and Key Players in the Commercial World will be conducting contingency plans for the main shades of Brexit … they have always done so and have contingency staff for the purpose.

You appear to be saying that it’s not even worth raising an eyebrow that the people that prepare for civil disasters are planning for Brexit. What with Brexit NOT being a disease, natural disaster, or act of terrorism, but something that is government policy.

Your Brexity faith is strong.

Eh ? .. I was simply pointing out that contingency plans are made in every significant organisation in the land and that this has been the case for many years so why should it be a surprise to anybody that some ' Contingency Teams ' are considering the implications of Brexit.

The posting had nothing whatsoever to do with my personal opinion regarding Brexit although I would now point out that I am not anticipating getting a disease nor experiencing a natural disaster or an act of terrorism as a direct consequence of Brexit however it pans out.

[Golden Princess]

Barney, I am so pleased for you (and your friends, and family and loved ones, and acquaintances and neighbours) that you have noticed no difference at all. You are blessed and very lucky. You must live in a delightful place.

Unfortunately there is a large number of people who are not so blessed nor lucky.

Manoverboard, I sincerely hope that no one suffers a disease, natural disaster or act of terrorism as a direct result. However our ability to cope with such a situation is being greatly diminished.

[Ray Scully]

Barney, I am so pleased for you (and your friends, and family and loved ones, and acquaintances and neighbours) that you have noticed no difference at all. You are blessed and very lucky. You must live in a delightful place.

Unfortunately there is a large number of people who are not so blessed nor lucky.

Manoverboard, I sincerely hope that no one suffers a disease, natural disaster or act of terrorism as a direct result. However our ability to cope with such a situation is being greatly diminished.

GP Do you really think they care?

[Gill W]

You seem slightly obsessed with 'no deal Brexit' if I may say so.
There is actually no such thing as a no deal Brexit.

I think we are going round in circles now. You've said this before.

If we don't agree a deal with the EU, then we revert to WTO terms. That is not a deal, that is bog standard trading terms.

However a deal is not just trade - it affects all our other relationships with the EU.

A no deal means no transition agreement either

Forgive me for wondering how a no deal would affect our day to day lives in less than 7 months time, when currently nobody knows what's going to happen. It seems reasonable to wonder. Or is it more reasonable to stick my head in the sand and pretend the negotiations are going swimmingly.

Furthermore, I always highlight that I'm specifically talking about a no deal Brexit. This is because, if there's a deal, and things go reasonably well, all you Brexiters will start jumping up and down, crowing that 'we told you so'. You will conveniently forget that I was talking about a no deal scenario - so that's why I'm making it perfectly clear, in all my posts.

[Gill W]

Project Fear is now a busted flush for most people.

I agree with that.

We've now got to the point where hard line Brexiters refuse to accept anything that tarnishs their vision of unicorns while more moderate people look at the state of the negotiations and wonder how the hell its all going to pan out. There's also another group who are just hoping it'll all go away.

[oldbluefox]

GP Do you really think they care?

When you stop trying to occupy the moral high ground perhaps you will consider that nobody who voted was looking to make the country worse off. It's not a fair comment.
At the moment the government are looking to cover every eventuality but i maintain common sense will prevail and a deal will be struck. Consequently I am not overly concerned and take little notice of sensationalist headlines in the Press designed to sell newspapers. A no deal settlement is the worst case scenario which is still a possibility and for which the government agencies must plan.
However, despite what some say we will never know what deals are being struck in the background and only time will tell what they are.

[Gill W]

I know that nothing will ever convince you that Brexit will be anything but a total disaster, but the reality is somewhat different.

I think a no deal Brexit would be a total disaster - but you'll accuse me again of being obsessed.

If there's a deal, it might not be a total disaster, but there will still be a lot of uncertainty and there'll still be many issues to resolve during transition, before we get to the sunlit uplands. How long that would take, I have no idea

[johnds]

Do those who wish to remain think that if the EU agree to the revocation of Article 50 they will allow us to remain on exactly the same terms as at present. For examle our rebate

[barney]

One thing that we can all agree on is that May's handling of the whole thing has been nothing short of a shambles.
Immediately after triggering Article 50, the UK should have been planning for a 'No Deal' scenario.
We should have had two years to get things in place.

Personally, I'm ambivilant to whether there is a trade agreement or not, but suspect that there will be some sort of compromise, whatever happens.

I am far more fearful of the rise of the far right in Europe than I am about Brexit.

https://muftah.org/will-the-2018-swedis ... 5Kg6_ZFyM8

That is what will kick off a real crisis, not the UK leaving a political instituation.
Most in the UK don't seem to realise what is happening right on our door step.
Even seemingly liberal countries like Sweden and Denmark now have sizable far right movements getting into a position to influence governments.
NF in France is pretty much on par with En Marche in popularity at the moment.
Germany has a sizable far right movement in AFD as oppostion to conservative Merkel.
Italy has an openly far right government, as do Austria, Poland and Hungary.
As a matter of fact, the only Socialist/Liberal government in Europe at the moment is in Spain, and they work on a minority government.

This is what folks should really be concerned about.
!939 anyone ?

[Manoverboard]

… number of people who are not so blessed nor lucky.

Manoverboard, I sincerely hope that no one suffers a disease, natural disaster or act of terrorism as a direct result. However our ability to cope with such a situation is being greatly diminished.

My understanding is that the Medical ' issues ' will be amicably resolved between the UK and the EU because it is in our mutual interests, it is also the humanitarian way forward. Everybody who matters in the ' Steering Committee ' is, I believe, aware of that.

I am yet to appreciate how our capacity to deal with terrorism / disasters will be impacted if we leave the EU … please explain.

[Onelife]

I know that nothing will ever convince you that Brexit will be anything but a total disaster, but the reality is somewhat different.

I think a no deal Brexit would be a total disaster - but you'll accuse me again of being obsessed.

If there's a deal, it might not be a total disaster, but there will still be a lot of uncertainty and there'll still be many issues to resolve during transition, before we get to the sunlit uplands. How long that would take, I have no idea

Hi Gill,

As you know l do like a flutter so if l were to place a bet on the effects of us leaving the EU l would be looking for..

1/3.....seeing a very rough....year one

1/2 .... seeing a rough.... year two

1/1.... seeing clearer sky's ahead... year three

1/2 .....seeing an increased export market and better times ahead....years four - five

1/5.....seeing us "double" our export markets over and above that of what we are doing with the EU.....that's if there is still a EU...years five-ten

I think it will be a case of no pain no gain but l agree with you and Princess that it will be the poorest in society that will take the hardest hits... short term and more than likely long term.....nothing changes dose it?

Regards

Keith

[barney]

From Reuters news agency

"More than 2,600 drugs have some stage of manufacture in Britain and 45 million patient packs are supplied from the UK to other European countries each month, while another 37 million flow in the opposite direction, industry figures show. "

Like nearly everything else, it's a two way street.
So, it begs the question of why only the UK seem concerned about this.
If we sell more drugs to the EU that they export to us, surely they have a vested interest in sorting it out.

I reiterate, the UK is a world leader in many things.
We are not some third world outpost, clinging to the apron strings of the EU.

I would also add that due to the EMA having to relocate to an EU country, they have found that they have lost 40% of their staff who have no wish to move to Amsterdam but prefer to stay in London. (most not English, by the way)
another unforeseen circumstance of Brexit but good news for the UK Medicine agency, with a ready made team.
A bit like the staff currently working at Surrey Satellite on the EU Gallileo project.
If the UK does it's own thing, half the work is already done.
These are things that the doom mongers never mention.

[Gill W]

Do those who wish to remain think that if the EU agree to the revocation of Article 50 they will allow us to remain on exactly the same terms as at present. For examle our rebate

i feel the EU have given the impression that they’d be happy to allow us to continue on our current terms if Brexit were stopped by 29/3/19.

If, after that date we applied to join, we’d just be treated like any other new country, and have to accept their terms including a commitment to join the Euro.

[Gill W]

Barney, I think you are right to be worried about the far right, and they exist in the U.K. too.

All summer, I’ve had the feeling this year is like a golden summer of 1914 or 1939 with the storm clouds gathering on the horizon. I have not said this on here for fear of ridicule, but as you said it too, I’ve come out of the closet to agree with you

[oldbluefox]

"The European Commission has said that if Britain leaves it would have to reapply to join the bloc in the usual way – meaning the UK would likely not be granted its old rebate and preferential treatment it currently has". (The Independent)

[Gill W]

… number of people who are not so blessed nor lucky.

Manoverboard, I sincerely hope that no one suffers a disease, natural disaster or act of terrorism as a direct result. However our ability to cope with such a situation is being greatly diminished.

My understanding is that the Medical ' issues ' will be amicably resolved between the UK and the EU because it is in our mutual interests, it is also the humanitarian way forward. Everybody who matters in the ' Steering Committee ' is, I believe, aware of that.

I am yet to appreciate how our capacity to deal with terrorism / disasters will be impacted if we leave the EU … please explain.

I think medical issues would be addressed as part of a deal, but at the risk of again being accused of being no deal obsessed, I don’t think it’s possible to know what would happen in a no deal scenario.

Regarding terrorism, we share intelligence information with the EU and they share info with us - there’s no guarantee that this will remain the same in the event of a no deal - the agreements and mechanisms for this could come to an abrupt end.

A no deal means everything ends and has to be restarted on new agreements and terms. That takes time. Who knows, the terrorists might think this time of uncertainty is an opportunity.

[Gill W]

Keith are your odds for a deal Brexit or a no deal Brexit?

[oldbluefox]

It's all supposition about something which is unlikely to happen and may never happen despite what the doom-mongers may say. There is too much at stake for both parties and too many areas which are mutually beneficial. I doubt the EU are so churlish that they would cut off their nose to spite their face.

[oldbluefox]

Keith are your odds for a deal Brexit or a no deal Brexit?

Onelife's tips are not always the best but don't tell him I said that.

[Onelife]

Keith are your odds for a deal Brexit or a no deal Brexit?

Hi Gill,

Hmm! That's a tricky one......as long as we are out of the signal market, out of the customs union, take control of our boarders, and our judicial system then l would be happy to go with something in between.

Nothing like edging your bets

Regards

Keith

[Onelife]

Keith are your odds for a deal Brexit or a no deal Brexit?

Onelife's tips are not always the best but don't tell him I said that.

Hey Foxy...If you had backed all of the horses l have backed this past twelve months you would now have £1600 in your bank......mine is in the wife's bank squeak! squeak!

btw...l nearly backed a horse called "Foxy forever" the other day....glad l didn't

[oldbluefox]

Keith are your odds for a deal Brexit or a no deal Brexit?

Onelife's tips are not always the best but don't tell him I said that.

Hey Foxy...If you had backed all of the horses l have backed this past twelve months you would now have £1600 in your bank......mine is in the wife's bank squeak! squeak!

They're not the same horses you recommended to us..................

[Onelife]

Keith are your odds for a deal Brexit or a no deal Brexit?

Onelife's tips are not always the best but don't tell him I said that.

Hey Foxy...If you had backed all of the horses l have backed this past twelve months you would now have £1600 in your bank......mine is in the wife's bank squeak! squeak!

They're not the same horses you recommended to us..................

[/quote

Hi Foxy,

I work on a one winner in five strategy.....you obviously backed the other four