Brexit

[oldbluefox]

Onelife's tips are not always the best but don't tell him I said that.

Hey Foxy...If you had backed all of the horses l have backed this past twelve months you would now have £1600 in your bank......mine is in the wife's bank squeak! squeak!

They're not the same horses you recommended to us..................
[/quote

Hi Foxy,

I work on a one winner in five strategy.....you obviously backed the other four

[johnds]

i feel the EU have given the impression that they’d be happy to allow us to continue on our current terms if Brexit were stopped by 29/3/19.

What evidence do you have to support that supposition

[barney]

… number of people who are not so blessed nor lucky.

Manoverboard, I sincerely hope that no one suffers a disease, natural disaster or act of terrorism as a direct result. However our ability to cope with such a situation is being greatly diminished.

My understanding is that the Medical ' issues ' will be amicably resolved between the UK and the EU because it is in our mutual interests, it is also the humanitarian way forward. Everybody who matters in the ' Steering Committee ' is, I believe, aware of that.

I am yet to appreciate how our capacity to deal with terrorism / disasters will be impacted if we leave the EU … please explain.

I think medical issues would be addressed as part of a deal, but at the risk of again being accused of being no deal obsessed, I don’t think it’s possible to know what would happen in a no deal scenario.

Regarding terrorism, we share intelligence information with the EU and they share info with us - there’s no guarantee that this will remain the same in the event of a no deal - the agreements and mechanisms for this could come to an abrupt end.

A no deal means everything ends and has to be restarted on new agreements and terms. That takes time. Who knows, the terrorists might think this time of uncertainty is an opportunity.

Hi again Gill,
Sorry to correct you but we don't share security information with the EU.
We share information with individual countries. The EU is not considered secure.
This will continue on a bi-lateral basis after 2019.

The collective information sharing has evolved on criminal justice issues between the EU’s member countries to help them apprehend criminals, including sex offenders, people traffickers and terrorists, by unifying the procedures for and speeding up extradition and distributing security related information among EU members.

Although the UK is outside Shengen, the UK has chosen to ‘opt in’ to some of these arrangements and cooperate collectively with other EU countries through the SIS, European Arrest Warrant (EAW), European criminal records system and EU-Interpol cooperation.

For example, the UK’s National Crime Agency issued 219 EAWs for suspects in other EU countries in 2013, and 228 in 2014.
In return the National Crime Agency received 5,522 EAWs for requests in 2013, and 13,460 in 2014.

When the UK leaves the EU it might lose direct access to some these arrangements (such as the EAW which doesn’t currently apply to non-EU member countries).
That said, other non-EU member states, such as Norway, still participate in the SIS without being members of the EU and have negotiated similar arrangements to the EAW.

Outside the EU, the UK would be free to decide on which issues and with which countries it would wish to pursue such cooperation.
That isn’t much different to the situation now.
The UK also already collaborates directly with other countries outside the EU, such as the US, on these issues on a one-to-one basis.

I do have a level of personal expertise on this subject from my previous career in London.

regards
barney

[screwy]

Well done Barney, just keep picking em off..it wont make any difference, some are truly glass half empty.

[Onelife]

Hi Barney,

Whenever l read your posts it makes me think l should have spent mort time reading the telegraph/financial times instead of the sporting life.



l've just read Gill's post again and l'm sure she was referring to individual countries within the EU ....not how it reads?

[Ray Scully]

Well done Barney, just keep picking em off..it wont make any difference, some are truly glass half empty.

If we leave without a deal, the already disadvantaged in our society will be lucky to have a glass

[barney]

The problem really is Ray, that so many are presenting their opinion as fact.
Be it the IMF, the OECD, the CBI or our own Treasury.

Facts are rarely ascertained in advance.
It is generally after an event that the real facts emerge.

Now, I was sad enough to watching the Parliament Channel the other morning and the Permanent Secretary to DexEU was being interviewed by the Select committee for leaving the EU.
He had to admit that all of the ' projected models' were nothing more that that.
Projections, based on varying situations.
When he was asked whether any of these 'models' were based on the UK continuing a very high level of trade with the EU after Brexit, he had to admit that they were not.
They were simply, pretty bad, very bad or absolutely awful on the assumption that EU/UK trade would immediately dry up.

As I've pointed out in previous posts, (with evidence, not supposition) the UK is a major world economy and a pretty big player globally, in every sphere of business.
We, as a nation, have a trade deficit of about £80 billion every year with EU countries.
That is the deficit, not the total trade.
That is how much more we spend with them as opposed to their spend with us.

Some do very little business with us but the big 6 account for nearly ninety percent of that.
So, smaller nations will be barely affected but Germany, Holland & Belgium will be massively out of pocket.
Their leaders were saying that this is a price worth paying to secure the single market.
Now that they fully comprehend that the UK doesn't want to be part of the single market or customs union, theses stances have started to soften.
https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2016/24/e ... ent-of-gdp
The Dutch flower exports to the UK have already seen an 11% drop since 2016.
They are worried, believe me.

So, I once again reiterate that it is a two way street were trade is concerned.
There are buyers and sellers on both sides.
And that is why we do not need to be supplicants

[Jack Staff]

It's all project fear.
When we go over that cliff, who is to say there isn't mattresses and cotton wool at the bottom?

[barney]

Congrats on 800 posts Jack, the vast majority of which have been on Brexit.
You are the number one man

[Jack Staff]

Congrats on 800 posts Jack, the vast majority of which have been on Brexit.
You are the number one man

Thanks Barney! I hadn't noticed. Two years now, doesn't time fly or should that be sail?
I can remember at least two or three that weren't Brexit related, I must try harder to keep on topic.

[Manoverboard]

…. Regarding terrorism, we share intelligence information with the EU and they share info with us - there’s no guarantee that this will remain the same in the event of a no deal - the agreements and mechanisms for this could come to an abrupt end.

A no deal means everything ends and has to be restarted on new agreements and terms. That takes time. Who knows, the terrorists might think this time of uncertainty is an opportunity.

I have no concerns about that because UK PLC has an upper hand by some considerable margin when it comes to security matters, the EU would be foolish in the extreme to alienate us on this particular issue. For us it is a bargaining chip should we wish to use it.

There would an element of risk to the UK, as there is now, but a far greater one sur la continent.

[Onelife]

Congrats on 800 posts Jack, the vast majority of which have been on Brexit.
You are the number one man

Thanks Barney! I hadn't noticed. Two years now, doesn't time fly or should that be sail?
I can remember at least two or three that weren't Brexit related, I must try harder to keep on topic.

Don't get too excited Jack........l've asked the mods to deduct 50 because of your repetitive posts

[Ray Scully]

It's all project fear.
When we go over that cliff, who is to say there isn't mattresses and cotton wool at the bottom?

Hopefully only for the Remainers

[Jack Staff]

It's all project fear.
When we go over that cliff, who is to say there isn't mattresses and cotton wool at the bottom?

Hopefully only for the Remainers

Nah, it'll be rocks and sharks for everyone.

[barney]

i feel the EU have given the impression that they’d be happy to allow us to continue on our current terms if Brexit were stopped by 29/3/19.

What evidence do you have to support that supposition

No man ever steps into the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.
What was, has passed.
It's now about what will be .

[oldbluefox]

You never move forwards if you stand still.

[Gill W]

i feel the EU have given the impression that they’d be happy to allow us to continue on our current terms if Brexit were stopped by 29/3/19.

What evidence do you have to support that supposition

Various things I've read over the last two years on various websites.

However, I'm not going to seek them out, because these's little point, as I think we're all getting a bit tired of links to websites.

[Gill W]

… number of people who are not so blessed nor lucky.

Manoverboard, I sincerely hope that no one suffers a disease, natural disaster or act of terrorism as a direct result. However our ability to cope with such a situation is being greatly diminished.

My understanding is that the Medical ' issues ' will be amicably resolved between the UK and the EU because it is in our mutual interests, it is also the humanitarian way forward. Everybody who matters in the ' Steering Committee ' is, I believe, aware of that.

I am yet to appreciate how our capacity to deal with terrorism / disasters will be impacted if we leave the EU … please explain.

I think medical issues would be addressed as part of a deal, but at the risk of again being accused of being no deal obsessed, I don’t think it’s possible to know what would happen in a no deal scenario.

Regarding terrorism, we share intelligence information with the EU and they share info with us - there’s no guarantee that this will remain the same in the event of a no deal - the agreements and mechanisms for this could come to an abrupt end.

A no deal means everything ends and has to be restarted on new agreements and terms. That takes time. Who knows, the terrorists might think this time of uncertainty is an opportunity.

Hi again Gill,
Sorry to correct you but we don't share security information with the EU.
We share information with individual countries. The EU is not considered secure.
This will continue on a bi-lateral basis after 2019.

The collective information sharing has evolved on criminal justice issues between the EU’s member countries to help them apprehend criminals, including sex offenders, people traffickers and terrorists, by unifying the procedures for and speeding up extradition and distributing security related information among EU members.

Although the UK is outside Shengen, the UK has chosen to ‘opt in’ to some of these arrangements and cooperate collectively with other EU countries through the SIS, European Arrest Warrant (EAW), European criminal records system and EU-Interpol cooperation.

For example, the UK’s National Crime Agency issued 219 EAWs for suspects in other EU countries in 2013, and 228 in 2014.
In return the National Crime Agency received 5,522 EAWs for requests in 2013, and 13,460 in 2014.

When the UK leaves the EU it might lose direct access to some these arrangements (such as the EAW which doesn’t currently apply to non-EU member countries).
That said, other non-EU member states, such as Norway, still participate in the SIS without being members of the EU and have negotiated similar arrangements to the EAW.

Outside the EU, the UK would be free to decide on which issues and with which countries it would wish to pursue such cooperation.
That isn’t much different to the situation now.
The UK also already collaborates directly with other countries outside the EU, such as the US, on these issues on a one-to-one basis.

I do have a level of personal expertise on this subject from my previous career in London.

regards
barney

No need to apologise, I like to learn.

The point I was making is that although we hope current arrangements will continue, there may be a period of uncertaincy, which people who wish to do us harm will think of as an opportunity.

[Gill W]

Hi Barney,

Whenever l read your posts it makes me think l should have spent mort time reading the telegraph/financial times instead of the sporting life.



l've just read Gill's post again and l'm sure she was referring to individual countries within the EU ....not how it reads?

What I meant was, whatever agreements we have now, might have to be 're-agreed' when our status changes, which might take time. I wasn't really referring to individual countries or the whole EU. Just keeping the status quo as it is now.

[Gill W]

Well done Barney, just keep picking em off..it wont make any difference, some are truly glass half empty.

Why the attitude? It's comments like that, that make amicable conversation so bloody difficult.

[screwy]

No need to swear,that’s when you lose the argument.

[Gill W]

I wasn't having an argument. I was asking why you were giving attitude.

It was amicable until your comment.

[screwy]

And I feel that I make a valid point,glasses half full.Its not an attitude.Barney made a valid post which some don’t seem to want to accept. It’s all opinions and they are like Bottoms, everyone has one.

[Stephen]

And I feel that I make a valid point,glasses half full.Its not an attitude.Barney made a valid post which some don’t seem to want to accept. It’s all opinions and they are like Bottoms, everyone has one.

Just that some are bigger than others ...

[Jack Staff]

I don't know about anybody else, but I off to find Merv for a while, until a little bit of decorum returns here.