Brexit

[oldbluefox]

Have you tried lieing down in a darkened room?

[Golden Princess]

Saw this on another site (permission given to copy) thought it was an interesting lay person's view on a possible house price crash:

On the face of it, a collapse of 35% in UK house prices in the event of a no-deal Brexit might sound quite appealing to young people trying to buy their first home. I’m not an economist, but a few things need to be mentioned here which may not at first be clear:

1. The reason the Governor of the Bank of England gives for saying that house prices would crash is that interest rates would have to rise hugely to protect the economy and our currency. New house buyers, most especially, could never afford to pay those interest rates.
2. Hundreds of thousands of households would be placed in a position of negative equity, and would be unable to sell in that context. House sales would dry up.
3. The banks would have to go back to a position of requiring a 40% deposit when buying a house or flat, so as to protect themselves from the risk of customers buying and then defaulting on their mortgage due to the value of their property declining. Recent reductions in the level of deposit required would be totally reversed, making it much more difficult for young people to get on the housing ladder.
4. Many people finance their lifestyles through the sense of security they have from the equity they have in their property. Take away their sense of security, and spending in the economy would totally dry up. Recession and unemployment would be the consequence, and young people ineligible for decent redundancy payments would be the first victims; they would also be imprisoned on these shores, having lost the right to go and work in Europe. With increased anxiety for everyone in society, there could only be an increase in rates of depression and mental health challenges.

Of course, the government must act swiftly and with boldness to support young people who’d like to purchase a home, but bringing about a house price crash would help absolutely no-one at all.

[Ray Scully]

Have you tried lieing down in a darkened room?

Tried it OBF but fell asleep and had a horrendous dream about the fantasy world of idealogues

[oldbluefox]

Have you tried lieing down in a darkened room?

Tried it OBF but fell asleep and had a horrendous dream about the fantasy world of idealogues

In that case you should join the Brexiteers. That Remain lot are doing you no good at all!!!

[Ray Scully]

Have you tried lieing down in a darkened room?

Tried it OBF but fell asleep and had a horrendous dream about the fantasy world of idealogues

In that case you should join the Brexiteers. That Remain lot are doing you no good at all!!!

WHAT! that would be like becoming a Man U supporter.

[screwy]

Oi !! Enough of that.

[Manoverboard]

High interest rates may at long last reward pensioners with a return on their hard earned savings …


.

[barney]

Saw this on another site (permission given to copy) thought it was an interesting lay person's view on a possible house price crash:

On the face of it, a collapse of 35% in UK house prices in the event of a no-deal Brexit might sound quite appealing to young people trying to buy their first home. I’m not an economist, but a few things need to be mentioned here which may not at first be clear:

1. The reason the Governor of the Bank of England gives for saying that house prices would crash is that interest rates would have to rise hugely to protect the economy and our currency. New house buyers, most especially, could never afford to pay those interest rates.
2. Hundreds of thousands of households would be placed in a position of negative equity, and would be unable to sell in that context. House sales would dry up.
3. The banks would have to go back to a position of requiring a 40% deposit when buying a house or flat, so as to protect themselves from the risk of customers buying and then defaulting on their mortgage due to the value of their property declining. Recent reductions in the level of deposit required would be totally reversed, making it much more difficult for young people to get on the housing ladder.
4. Many people finance their lifestyles through the sense of security they have from the equity they have in their property. Take away their sense of security, and spending in the economy would totally dry up. Recession and unemployment would be the consequence, and young people ineligible for decent redundancy payments would be the first victims; they would also be imprisoned on these shores, having lost the right to go and work in Europe. With increased anxiety for everyone in society, there could only be an increase in rates of depression and mental health challenges.

Of course, the government must act swiftly and with boldness to support young people who’d like to purchase a home, but bringing about a house price crash would help absolutely no-one at all.

One thing that has always amazed me is how any of our generation managed to buy a home.
Could it have been because were didn't have the need for gadgets, that seem so essential these days?
Could it be because we didn't eat out three or four times a week, because there wasn't the choice available?
Could it be because we accepted that to be able to buy a house or flat, we had to wind our spending right in, to save up for the deposit.
That meant very few nights out and living well within our means.
Then, after scraping together the required 10% and sitting through a personal interview with the bank manager, we also accepted that pretty much everything would be second hand until we could afford better.
Then, after 25 years of meeting mortgage repayments, we actually owned the house.

Then life is good!


What I actually did was rather than sitting on hundreds of thousands in equity, downsized and gave our son a decent amount to use as deposit on his first flat.
He now has his own family and is considering his third move.
I wonder how many are sitting on sizable amounts of money, while moaning that their offspring cannot get on the housing ladder.
Quite a few I'd imagine.
My take on life has always been, don't moan about it, do something about it.

Anyway, back on topic, it was good to hear Gove this morning openly admit (for the first time) that Chequers doesn't bind the hands of future Governments.
So, if May can get that through the House and the EU, it should be accepted as the first step to full independence.
I'd imagine that once we start to fully flourish, the UK will move further away from the EU.

[oldbluefox]

One thing that has always amazed me is how any of our generation managed to buy a home.
Could it have been because were didn't have the need for gadgets, that seem so essential these days?
Could it be because we didn't eat out three or four times a week, because there wasn't the choice available?
Could it be because we accepted that to be able to buy a house or flat, we had to wind our spending right in, to save up for the deposit.
That meant very few nights out and living well within our means.
Then,after scraping together the required 10% and sitting through a personal interview with the bank manager, we also accepted that pretty much everything would be second hand until we could afford better.
Then, after 25 years of meeting mortgage repayments, we actually owned the house.

Then life is good!

Same here barney. Not for us gap years, binge drinking, elaborate weddings, exotic honeymoons, designer clothes, continental holidays, eating out, phones, smart cars. For a start we didn't have the money and what we did have we saved. I did a full time job and three evening jobs and holidays were spent working on a building site or on the Christmas post; anywhere I could find to get extra money. By comparison our young people are wealthy beyond belief but that's what they have come to expect.
Times were hard but we were happy and managed to buy a little house which 'needed attention'!!!! We got back from honeymoon (three days in a bed and breakfast place in Aberdovey) with £25 between us. Somebody gave us a washing machine (which knotted all the sleeves together!) and later a cheap fridge. Our table was an old tea chest with a sheet over it!!!
We are told we were lucky and I think we were because we learnt the value of everything and appreciated what we had.
It was reported that the average cost of a house had gone up to £270k. If that is the level first time buyers are aiming at I am not surprised they are struggling. Sometimes you just have to lower your sights.

[Jack Staff]

I know some people who agree with you guys....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKHFZBUTA4k

[Ray Scully]

One thing that has always amazed me is how any of our generation managed to buy a home.
Could it have been because were didn't have the need for gadgets, that seem so essential these days?
Could it be because we didn't eat out three or four times a week, because there wasn't the choice available?
Could it be because we accepted that to be able to buy a house or flat, we had to wind our spending right in, to save up for the deposit.
That meant very few nights out and living well within our means.
Then,after scraping together the required 10% and sitting through a personal interview with the bank manager, we also accepted that pretty much everything would be second hand until we could afford better.
Then, after 25 years of meeting mortgage repayments, we actually owned the house.

Then life is good!

Same here barney. Not for us gap years, binge drinking, elaborate weddings, exotic honeymoons, designer clothes, continental holidays, eating out, phones, smart cars. For a start we didn't have the money and what we did have we saved. I did a full time job and three evening jobs and holidays were spent working on a building site or on the Christmas post; anywhere I could find to get extra money. By comparison our young people are wealthy beyond belief but that's what they have come to expect.
Times were hard but we were happy and managed to buy a little house which 'needed attention'!!!! We got back from honeymoon (three days in a bed and breakfast place in Aberdovey) with £25 between us. Somebody gave us a washing machine (which knotted all the sleeves together!) and later a cheap fridge. Our table was an old tea chest with a sheet over it!!!
We are told we were lucky and I think we were because we learnt the value of everything and appreciated what we had.
It was reported that the average cost of a house had gone up to £270k. If that is the level first time buyers are aiming at I am not surprised they are struggling. Sometimes you just have to lower your sights.

Well for us it was quite simple we bought for £3100 a 3 bed detached house moved in on our wedding day. I was a heating tecky for the Gas Board Maureen a window dresser combined income circa £1000. Five percent deposit took just a couple of foreigners to amass. We also had a new Austin 1100. Forever grateful at being part of a golden generation.

[Ray Scully]

I know some people who agree with you guys....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKHFZBUTA4k

[oldbluefox]

Pleased to see our experiences have given our privileged Remainers something to laugh about but there has been little to cheer them lately.

[barney]

Looks like we have dodged a bullet

https://www.politico.eu/article/europea ... oettinger/

I'm not quite sure how all of this will work.
Did they get Diane Abbott to work it out for them?
They seem brilliant at spending other people's money.
Still, they have got to keep the 33,000 EU civil servants employed somehow.

[oldbluefox]

Looks like Juncker's booze cupboard is running low.

[barney]

Poor old TM !

So her Chequers 'plan' is officially dead.

The EU have made it perfectly clear, should she be under any illusions.

So, it looks like we leave on 29th March next year, without a transition period or deal.
Had she spent as much time on leaving the EU as she did trying to get a deal, the outcome may have been very different.

I think that the only way forward is for May to resign at the Tory Conference, to avoid being overthrown and a new PM lead us out of the EU.

[screwy]

Who do you suggest.?

[barney]

Not up to me Screwy.
I'm not a Conservative.

I expect that whoever takes over will actually have to believe in what he/she is doing.

[screwy]

Which means it would have to be a hard core Brexiteer,?
As a card carrying member i would have a say.

[Ray Scully]

Which means it would have to be a hard core Brexiteer,?
As a card carrying member i would have a say.

The "kiss of death" for anyone so foolish as to take it on. Could also be a generational demise for the Tories following a hard Brexit.

[barney]

The real crunch will come if the Labour conference can convince Corbyn and McDonnell to change their minds and call for another referendum.
As they are both hard Brexiteers, I think that they will have a job, but you never know.
Most of McDonnell's plans are built on being outside of the constraints of the EU and their competition rules.
They simply cannot implement their plan while remaining members, which is clearly why they haven't opposed May so far, but sat tightly on the fence.

I disagree with the demise of the Tories with a hard Brexit.
All opinion polls (no matter what some say) show that few have changed their minds and should there be another vote, it would again be on a knife edge.

A report just yesterday by John Curtice showed that very little has changed since June 2016.
There is an assumption that all of the young people who have turned 18 since 2016 will vote to remain, but that's not a given.
If the last time was anything to go by, most of them will stay in bed.

[Onelife]

Theresa May only has two choices left...hold out and let the EU come back with a compromise over the Chequers deal....or get out with a no deal. 

I don't now see the Canadian style deal as a viable option because that windows has closed.....by trying to negotiate  now for a Canadian  plus deal we'll be playing into the hands of the bullies who will see this move as a capitulation and take full advantage of our weakened  position.

Just a quick message to all of you who keep pushing for a second referendum...."Be very careful what you wish for" is my advice...If in the unlikely event that you were to get a second referendum l think you could well come out of it with a majority vote, but not for the reasons you think!!....If there were to be a vote what you would find is that a large proportion of those who voted Brexit wouldn't in my opinion  bother to vote at all in a second referendum....many would stick two fingers up to the democratic process, one that hasn't reflected their views. 


Remainers probably  won't give a sh*t as long as they get their way but what they don't realise is by disregarding the peoples (first) vote they will be turning their backs on a large proportion of those (less well off) who wanted change. Now ask yourselves where do people turn to when their voice isn't heard....well most turn to the left but as many of them are already there, where do they turn to next ? Well' be very careful what you wish for because many of them will turn to the 'far right' and when they do you'll really find out what happens when you  disregard the will of the people

[Jack Staff]

It's a straight choice now between admitting that they were wrong about almost everything or doubling down on the nonsense that the EU has been anything other than consistent & transparent throughout. Very hard to admit that your entire career was built on jingoistic ignorance.

[barney]

It's a straight choice now between admitting that they were wrong about almost everything or doubling down on the nonsense that the EU has been anything other than consistent & transparent throughout. Very hard to admit that your entire career was built on jingoistic ignorance.

I'm not quite sure who's career you are talking about Jack ?
Teresa May is and always has been a remainer.
That has been the problem.

I have been consistent since day one that the EU had no intention of negotiating anything.
They cannot afford to.
There is so much anti EU sentiment in Europe at the moment that if we left successfully and easily, the flood gates would open.
Most of the 'member states' are hostages to EU debt.

From the day after Brexit, the UK SHOULD have been planning to leave on March 29th, irrespective of any agreements being reached.
Her bad leadership has caused her own problems, because of her obsession with a deal.

We must leave on March 29th and then as a country outside of the EU, see if they are interested in a Trade deal.
The £39 billion bribe plus any further contributions must be immediately taken off the table, to give the EU a fighting chance with their next budget.
They will be fine without us and our money and we will be fine without their rules and restrictions.

[Onelife]

Hi Jack...The only thing that is consistent and transparent is that the EU had no other option other than stand their ground in order to stop further decay within the EU bloc.