Brexit

[Gill W]

As ever, I wonder what these negotiations are, bearing in mind the EU have said, over and over, that they are not going to renegotiate the WA

I'm hoping that after a weekend of Mr Cox in full flow, they'll give us whatever we want just to get rid of us

My theory is that, every time Theresa May goes to Brussels, or Geoffrey Cox, or anyone to do with U.K. negotiations, the EU hide when they knock on the door, and pretend they are not at home!

[Gill W]

This is what Mr Cox himself has to say:

"The DT (Daily Telegraph) reporting of the last 24 hours consists of misunderstood fag ends dressed up as facts. Some of it is accurate, much more of it isn’t and what is not is far more significant than what is. Complex and detailed negotiations cannot be conducted in public".

As ever, I wonder what these negotiations are, bearing in mind the EU have said, over and over, that they are not going to renegotiate the WA

I think everyone knows that Gill but as I understand it, Cox is trying to negotiate a codicil to the political agreement which would override or make clear that the backstop in the WA is time limited, which I believe the theory has been accepted, but not yet the text.

If you believe the latest media reports ( not everybody does) things have moved on. It is said that Cox has given up on all that, and is looking at an ‘arbitration method’ to end the backstop, should it ever be needed. It was in the link I posted earlier.

[barney]

Weirdly you would think that they would love to see the back of us wouldn't you. We are the annoying neighbour who will remain a thorn in their side should brexit not go through to its conclusion. Brexit will just go on forever.

[anniec]

My theory is that, every time Theresa May goes to Brussels, or Geoffrey Cox, or anyone to do with U.K. negotiations, the EU hide when they knock on the door, and pretend they are not at home!

How do they keep Juncker quiet?

[Mervyn and Trish]

My theory is that, every time Theresa May goes to Brussels, or Geoffrey Cox, or anyone to do with U.K. negotiations, the EU hide when they knock on the door, and pretend they are not at home!

How do they keep Juncker quiet?

Give him another drink

[barney]

The Emperor speaks ….

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -brexit-uk

So, according to Jupiter, the solution to people's complaints about too much EU interference is … more EU

He wants to give the people more control by having a more controlling EU ?

"Europe is not just an economic market. It is a project."

Every time these clowns speak, it reinforces that the UK has made the correct decision in leaving the EU.

[Gill W]

Do you think leaving the EU will appease our nationalists?

So far, it seems Brexit has emboldened them

[Manoverboard]

It says here ....

Talks with the EU re the ' Backstop ' quandary are difficult but ongoing, a breakthrough has yet to be achieved.

We can wait

[barney]

Tick tock
Tick tock

The absolute irony of this situation is that no WA will automatically cause a hard border, formed by the EU, so Ireland are in a lose/lose …. or maybe there will be some sort of post Brexit agreement, that they could do now, if they wished.

Maybe it makes them feel important .

Surely the solution to avoid a hard border between NI & Ireland is to compromise.

The UK accepts a time limited back stop ?
What's wrong with that?

Ireland says that it is their insurance policy, but no insurance policy endures forever except a life/death policy.
So, must this last until the end of time?

Even the most ardent remain voters think that this is unacceptable.

[david63]

Surely the solution to avoid a hard border between NI & Ireland is to compromise.

... or Ireland also leaves the EU

[Ray Scully]

Looks as though the Irish problem could be manifesting itself again. but hopefully not!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-47466545

[Gill W]

Tick tock
Tick tock

The absolute irony of this situation is that no WA will automatically cause a hard border, formed by the EU, so Ireland are in a lose/lose …. or maybe there will be some sort of post Brexit agreement, that they could do now, if they wished.

Maybe it makes them feel important .

Surely the solution to avoid a hard border between NI & Ireland is to compromise.

The UK accepts a time limited back stop ?
What's wrong with that?

Ireland says that it is their insurance policy, but no insurance policy endures forever except a life/death policy.
So, must this last until the end of time?

Even the most ardent remain voters think that this is unacceptable.

The problem with a time limited backstop - what happens if, at the end of the time limit, no solution has been found and the backstop (insurance policy) is still required. This could easily happen - after all, we are now just three weeks from Brexit and still have no idea of how we are going to leave.

With this as a background, if I was Ireland or the EU, I wouldn't be confident that this could be resolved by an arbitrary cut off date, so no wonder they want a backstop to be available until it is no longer required (or the end of time, which ever comes sooner. Probably the end of time.)

Obviously, most remainers think this is completely unacceptable - I said back in November that Remainers hate the deal, as we lose what we already have, and become rule takers, with no unilateral way out.

The people you should be asking if this is acceptable, are the Leavers on this forum who appear to support the deal.

[towny44]

I assume that the backstop, if implemented, would only apply whilst the UK and the EU are negotiating a trade deal, presumably if these negotiations break down irreconcilably then either side could declare them dead and walk away from the negotiations and out of the backstop arrangement?
We are then back to a no deal situation and I assume the need for a hard border in Ireland. I wonder what Varadker thinks about that, maybe Mother Theresa should point this out next time they meet.

[barney]

Not so John. May's agreement ties the UK in ad infinitum with no get out clause. The only way out would be to break the treaty a la Trump.

[oldbluefox]

And that is unacceptable to the DUP and the Leavers.
You would tend to believe common sense would prevail but I think the EU are convinced the UK will backtrack and remain.

[towny44]

Not so John. May's agreement ties the UK in ad infinitum with no get out clause. The only way out would be to break the treaty a la Trump.

Do you know this for certain Barney? The backstop is there to allow more time to complete the trade agreement, how could it tie us in if we decide there is no way we can achieve any agreement, no court in the World would uphold this.

[Gill W]

Barney is correct. If the withdrawal agreement is accepted, there will be a transition period. If, at the end of the transition period, the future relationship has not been settled, the backstop kicks in. Once the backstop is in force, both the UK and the EU have to agree that it can end.

Therefore, we would be tied to the EU, accepting their rules, with no way out, unless they agree to it.

This is why I have been so bemused that some Leavers on this forum seem to to like the WA and want it to be agreed by Parliament.

[towny44]

In that case unless the EU renegotiates the WA then my vote changes to leaving with no deal.

[barney]

Should the WA that May has signed up to be ratified without ammendment, the UK will be tied to the EU until they agree that we can leave their jurasrtiction. That is why 200 plus MPs voted against it. Without a get out clause, leaving without a WA would be preferable. It's shocking that her team even thought it acceptable.

[Ray Scully]

Seems obvious to me that all those who find leaving with no deal acceptable "have no skin in the game"

[Gill W]

I believe the 'no deal' brigade either think they' won't be affected by no deal, or they have vastly underestimated the risks of no deal, or dismiss any warnings as 'Project Fear'.

[towny44]

I believe the 'no deal' brigade either think they' won't be affected by no deal, or they have vastly underestimated the risks of no deal, or dismiss any warnings as 'Project Fear'.

No Gill I don't think we under estimate the economic consequences and it would be far better to leave with a deal. But unless the EU agree to change or even withdraw the backstop clause then the current WA is not acceptable, possibly brinkmanship is the only thing that the EU understand.

[anniec]

I believe the 'no deal' brigade either think they' won't be affected by no deal, or they have vastly underestimated the risks of no deal, or dismiss any warnings as 'Project Fear'.

Gill, even Carney, arguably one of the main architects of project fear mark I, seems to have modified his gloomy predictions about a no-deal Brexit: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... k-england/ (aware this link is the Torygraph, other links are available).

As an aside, we were talking yesterday to a friend who works in a fairly senior position at Jaguar Land Rover, so someone with a vested interest in the future of industry in this country. He voted remain, but his words yesterday were "those wanting another referendum should be very careful what they wish for. If we have another, I shall vote leave". As I've said before, that makes most of those we know who voted remain (admittedly the minority who bring the subject up) now planning to vote in favour of leave, should there be another referendum.

[Gill W]

I believe the 'no deal' brigade either think they' won't be affected by no deal, or they have vastly underestimated the risks of no deal, or dismiss any warnings as 'Project Fear'.

No Gill I don't think we under estimate the economic consequences and it would be far better to leave with a deal. But unless the EU agree to change or even withdraw the backstop clause then the current WA is not acceptable, possibly brinkmanship is the only thing that the EU understand.

We agreed to have a backstop as far back as December 2017.

The WA was endorsed by May and EU last November.

It was done and dusted as far as the EU were concerned - it’s us who are now saying we don’t like it, so it’s up to us to give the EU acceptable alternative solutions. This is no brinkmanship by the EU. They have been crystal clear that the WA is not up for renegotiation.

If they suddenly ‘cave in’ at the last minute, as Leavers think will happen, the EU will be a bigger basket case than us.

If you believe the news reports, Cox has now been dispatched to London to find a new solution by tomorrow afternoon. Good luck with that Geoff !

[Gill W]

I believe the 'no deal' brigade either think they' won't be affected by no deal, or they have vastly underestimated the risks of no deal, or dismiss any warnings as 'Project Fear'.

Gill, even Carney, arguably one of the main architects of project fear mark I, seems to have modified his gloomy predictions about a no-deal Brexit: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... k-england/ (aware this link is the Torygraph, other links are available).

As an aside, we were talking yesterday to a friend who works in a fairly senior position at Jaguar Land Rover, so someone with a vested interest in the future of industry in this country. He voted remain, but his words yesterday were "those wanting another referendum should be very careful what they wish for. If we have another, I shall vote leave". As I've said before, that makes most of those we know who voted remain (admittedly the minority who bring the subject up) now planning to vote in favour of leave, should there be another referendum.

I don’t know about you, but, in real life, I only have Brexit conversations with people I know who agree with me.

I’m not doubting what you say, but the people who’ve discussed it with you know you views - your remain acquaintances and friends who still want to remain are probably keeping quiet.

Anecdotally, I don’t believe large amounts of Remainers have switched allegiance.

I think we have gone way beyond a ‘People’s Vote’.

It’s either
Leave with May’s deal
Leave with no deal.
Revoke Article 50.

There’s talk of asking for an extension of A50. Not sure how I feel about this. It just prolongs the uncertainty. Also not sure if the EU will agree unless something changes.

What a mess it is !