Brexit

[screwy]

No surprise the EU can't negotiate anything as important as Brexit. It's just concluded four years of debate on whether we can call gin and tonic "gin and tonic". Really getting to grips with major international issues.

The same could be said of the British government, which rather than sorting this Brexit mess of it's own creation, has been talking about low level letter boxes.

Seems your worried more about fresh lettuce than Postmans backs, of course Parliament should be getting on with everyday matters as well as Brexit.

[Onelife]

Good luck this evening Theresa........keefy hasn't lost faith in you

[barney]

Hmmm! Is this enough to get it through parliament? I don't know but reckon it may be. Tuesday will tell. As I've said previously, a fudge.

[Onelife]

Hmmm! …was my first impression but having spent the last 2 minutes scrutinizing the legal implications I think we have made progress in obtaining legally binding assurances that should get the WA over the line. Had we had more time and had not been put under pressure to rule out a no deal we probably could have secured more concessions.

The Attorney General will need to be on his top game tomorrow for sure.

Whatever happens just remember there are more important things in life....CHELTENHAM starts tomorrow

[Gill W]

The risk of us being ‘trapped’ in a backstop hasn’t been eliminated, just reduced.

They would have until the end of 2020 to find alternative arrangements to a backstop. Good luck with that unicorn, they’ve been looking for it for the last couple of years with no success.

Furthermore, the U.K. wouldn’t just be able to leave a backstop, they’d have to launch an appeal saying that the EU weren’t using their best endeavours to allow the U.K. to leave. I haven’t seen yet who we could appeal to...... a few days ago I read that the EU would want the ECJ to act as arbitrators. So much for taking back control!

Personally, I don’t think it’s nearly good enough.

However, we now need to see what Cox says ( he’s caught between law and political expediency) and how the vote goes.

Junker made it clear that this is it - nothing else can be done - this is your eleventh hour ‘deal’ you all have been so keen on.

[Manoverboard]

We are more likely at the ninth hour, the eleventh will follow in due course.

[towny44]

The risk of us being ‘trapped’ in a backstop hasn’t been eliminated, just reduced.

They would have until the end of 2020 to find alternative arrangements to a backstop. Good luck with that unicorn, they’ve been looking for it for the last couple of years with no success.

Furthermore, the U.K. wouldn’t just be able to leave a backstop, they’d have to launch an appeal saying that the EU weren’t using their best endeavours to allow the U.K. to leave. I haven’t seen yet who we could appeal to...... a few days ago I read that the EU would want the ECJ to act as arbitrators. So much for taking back control!

Personally, I don’t think it’s nearly good enough.

However, we now need to see what Cox says ( he’s caught between law and political expediency) and how the vote goes.

Junker made it clear that this is it - nothing else can be done - this is your eleventh hour ‘deal’ you all have been so keen on.

You really are a glass half empty person Gill, or are you now concerned that just maybe May's WA might get through, and thus deny you any chance of stopping Brexit happening? Of course if that happens you can always join Jacks "Let's rejoin the EU" party.

[Gill W]

I'm a realist.

The WA agreement hasn't changed - we still can't unilaterally exit the back stop

In the last vote it was defeated by historic proportions.

We now have a bit of legal polishing, but NOTHING HAS CHANGED.

I know Twitter is to be disregarded in these parts, but legal opinion, as tweeted by several lawyers and legal experts backs this up.

Whereas, Geoffrey Cox's contribution to Twitter this morning has been a single word - 'Bollocks'. Thst's really what you expect from a person in high office - not.

[Gill W]

Geoffrey Cox's legal advice now available on gov.uk

LEGAL RISK REMAINS UNCHANGED.

[Manoverboard]

For completeness he is additionally quoted ( on the BBC Website ) as saying ...

However, Geoffrey Cox said the new agreements reinforced the legal rights available to the UK if subsequent talks broke down due to "bad faith".

[towny44]

For completeness he is additionally quoted ( on the BBC Website ) as saying ...

However, Geoffrey Cox said the new agreements reinforced the legal rights available to the UK if subsequent talks broke down due to "bad faith".

But he also said the bar would be set very high to prove the EU was acting in bad faith, despite most people believing the EU only ever looks after itself.

[barney]

So, after listening to Cox, the only serious option for the UK is to leave on 29th March.

He, May and a few others have given it their best shot but ultimately failed to secure an agreement that is acceptable not only to the House, but to the public in general.

The other loser is Barnier.
He had one job and that was to negotiate a withdrawal agreement with the UK.
He has failed.
Juncker will retire shortly and go down in history as the guy who precipitated the next Eurozone recession.
Tusk will go back to be a nobody that history will quickly forget.

What a sad state European politics is in when something that should have been relatively easy to sort out has hit the buffers due to political intransigence.

Never mind. Onwards and upwards for the UK.
We'll be fine, unlike Ireland.
They will need serious propping up after March.

The EU chose its path more than 2 years ago, which was, to suffer a ‘no deal’ WTO Brexit to make a point to others, and to destroy the Irish economy in the process.

So Varadkar can sleep soundly like a good EU poodle he is.
He’s been royally shafted by the EU and has managed to alienate Ireland’s other close partners (UK and USA) at the same time.

Another who history will judge badly.

Brussels thinks the EU can handle a no deal better than the UK.
It makes this assumption on the EU not tearing itself apart.

A no deal will mean that Ireland will be in constant battle with the EU26 over their insistence to police the Ireland/NI border.
They will have to do this or have a border imposed on them.
Maybe German custom officials manning it ?

The UK leaving won't end the EU, but the arguments that will entail between the EU27 will eventually tear it apart.

[Gill W]

All wishful thinking on your part Barney. The EU have been remarkably united about Brexit.

I would normally say I'm astonished that anybody would think that undoing 40+ years of history would be have been easy (and that's without the unique situation regarding the border on the island of Ireland.

But after three years of it, nothing astonishes me anymore about what Brexiters say.

[towny44]

All wishful thinking on your part Barney. The EU have been remarkably united about Brexit.

I would normally say I'm astonished that anybody would think that undoing 40+ years of history would be have been easy (and that's without the unique situation regarding the border on the island of Ireland.

But after three years of it, nothing astonishes me anymore about what Brexiters say.

40+ years is a mere flash in the history books, the Soviet Empire lasted a little longer but its now a mere footnote in the GSCE exams. And today with modern technology you can pack in several lifetimes in a few months, so unravelling the UK from the EU should have been a doddle, unfortunately it was handled by a bunch of old dodderers, on both sides.

[Gill W]

I agree about the dodderers, but it was never going to be a doddle. The Leave campaign were wrong to give people the impression it was going to be a breeze

[barney]

According to Soubry, you cannot leave the EU. It's not possible. Wish we'd known that before She has written the longest resignation note in history

[barney]

Well, that's one step closer to leaving without a withdrawal agreement.

Well done Parliament.

It's obvious that they will reject leaving with No Deal tomorrow and think that the EU will grant a short extension after Thursday.

I'd say that the EU terms for allowing this will be unacceptable to the UK, and we will leave on the 29th, by default.

I can't for the life of me see what extension terms could possibly be.
To kick the can bit further down the road.
No thanks.

An improved deal ? Unlikely. Unless the backstop is removed.
A second referendum? More unlikely. Now May's deal is officially dead, there is no question to ask except Leave or Remain.
A general election ? Even more unlikely. Fixed term Parliament act.

So, all that is left on the table is leaving, with a load of mini deals to minimise disruption on both sides.

Ultimately a win/win.

We get out and they get rid of us.

[towny44]

I think the likely outcome is a GE, by Thursday Parliament will have voted not to leave without a deal, TM won't know what to ask for as regards an extension, and will be ready to pack it in. What happens then is anyone's guess, but as the UK could be government-less it will be up to the EU to decide if we leave with no deal, or if they offer us an extension to A50 and for them to decide how long it should be. Johnathan Lynn and Anthony Jay (Yes Minister) would never have dared to write a script as silly as this shambles.

[Jack Staff]

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[Onelife]

Well, that's one step closer to leaving without a withdrawal agreement.

Well done Parliament.

It's obvious that they will reject leaving with No Deal tomorrow and think that the EU will grant a short extension after Thursday.

I'd say that the EU terms for allowing this will be unacceptable to the UK, and we will leave on the 29th, by default.

I can't for the life of me see what extension terms could possibly be.
To kick the can bit further down the road.
No thanks.

An improved deal ? Unlikely. Unless the backstop is removed.
A second referendum? More unlikely. Now May's deal is officially dead, there is no question to ask except Leave or Remain.
A general election ? Even more unlikely. Fixed term Parliament act.

So, all that is left on the table is leaving, with a load of mini deals to minimise disruption on both sides.

Ultimately a win/win.

We get out and they get rid of us.

I could live with that Barney but I still think there is some life in Theresa’s deal (if we can get enough lozenges into her)….it would of course be helpful if Theresa could go to Strasburg next week with some cross-party assurance that were the back stop to be tweaked further then it would gain a majority in parliament…this I believe should be one of the motions put forward to be voted on..

Everything comes at a price and any extension will, as you say, come with a price tag…1 billion a month has been mentioned which will no doubt be acceptable to those who are hell bent on tearing our country apart with their selfish no compromise Remainer attitudes.


If all else fails I’m sure we could find 1 of the EU27 who would take a bung in stopping our extension request?

[Gill W]

I think we can expect the votes to reject a no deal Brexit and to ask for an extension to A50

The EU won’t extend unless there’s a reason, so I reckon there’ll be a new referendum.

Otherwise, as no deal will be rejected, the only option would be to revoke A50

PS - it’s time to acknowledge the deal is dead and EU have made it crystal clear there’s nothing else. People need to accept this now, there’s no point in flogging that dead horse anymore.

[Mervyn and Trish]

So the government has announced that if we leave without a deal we will not impose a border in Ireland. Will the EU? If not why is the backstop necessary in the case of a deal? It is the only thing stopping a deal being done.

[Manoverboard]

Does it matter if the vote for the removal of a ' No Deal ' is won or lost … it is not binding and only applies for the 29th of March ?

[Mervyn and Trish]

The EU have been remarkably united about Brexit.

They've certainly been united in their efforts to thwart Brexit.

But if we leave with no deal it will be everyone for themselves.

We regularly visit Madeira, part of Portugal. They are heavily dependent on our tourist visits. Portugal has already announced preparations to ensure they continue as before. At major airports there will be special provision to ensure UK citizens pass as easily as they do now. They will continue to offer the same health covers the EHIC card currently gives etc. And various other measures.

They already feel badly let down by the EU. They're not going to let the bureaucrats dictate an even more difficult future.

I fully expect other countries individually to protect their own national interests once Barnier et al have failed.

[oldbluefox]

I voted to leave, preferably with a deal. However from what I have seen from the EU over the past 2 years and the incompetence of May in her negotiations we should just leave on WTO terms and be done with it. Second referendums and extensions to Article 50 will resolve nothing. Just do it and we can move on.