Brexit

[anniec]

Andrea Leadsom has just answered my question in the House (perhaps whilst lurking in Parliament she also follows this forum) - the bill does supersede the previous legal position.

[Jack Staff]

'While not qualified to answer, If she is not allowed to leave no deal and the EU says no extension, then she has only one choice - to revoke Article 50.

Thanks Jack. So if the Cooper/Letwin bill becomes law, that supersedes the previous legal default position?

Very not clear on that, except it is the norm that the 'default' takes priority when faced with this kind of dilema.
But, more indicatively, you can still go to Kent, we have not heard of upcoming emergencies (apart from long running 'project fear') - we are not leaving on Friday whatever happens. Therefore she gets her deal through this week (not going to happen), we have an extension of EU choice duration (probably a year ish) or she still has the one thing that is solely in her power.

[Jack Staff]

Andrea Leadsom has just answered my question in the House (perhaps whilst lurking in Parliament she also follows this forum) - the bill does supersede the previous legal position.

Thank you.

[towny44]

Andrea Leadsom has just answered my question in the House (perhaps whilst lurking in Parliament she also follows this forum) - the bill does supersede the previous legal position.

Thank you.

Sort of puts the kibosh on an eleventh hour concession from the EU though doesn't it.

[Jack Staff]

Andrea Leadsom has just answered my question in the House (perhaps whilst lurking in Parliament she also follows this forum) - the bill does supersede the previous legal position.

Thank you.

Sort of puts the kibosh on an eleventh hour concession from the EU though doesn't it.

Wait, What? You were still thinking that they might give us unicorns?

[Jack Staff]

Sort of puts the kibosh on an eleventh hour concession from the EU though doesn't it.

Wait, What? You were still thinking that they might give us unicorns?

Perhaps I spoke to soon. Looks like the EU may prolong our agony and still give us the opportunity to leave.... ( see 7.03 update)
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-08/uks ... ons-hands/?

[towny44]

Thank you.

Sort of puts the kibosh on an eleventh hour concession from the EU though doesn't it.

Wait, What? You were still thinking that they might give us unicorns?

No but maybe a carrot for the braying remainers donkey.

[david63]

I thought that this latest bill was to make TM ASK for an extension, nothing more. OK TM asks the EU say no so we are back to square one.

[barney]

Technically correct David but the more important part is that it has taken decision making away from the executive. This changes the dynamics of UK politics forever. This tactic can be used again in any hung parliament. On this particular issue, they are thinking the longer the delay, the better chance of overturning the result.

[anniec]

I thought that this latest bill was to make TM ASK for an extension, nothing more. OK TM asks the EU say no so we are back to square one.

That's my understanding this morning. I don't think anyone knows what is actually going on, including the people who are supposed to.

[Stephen]

More chance of one of us winning the lotto jackpot than leaving on Friday. Next year looks more promising......perhaps!

[barney]

More chance of one of us winning the lotto jackpot than leaving on Friday. Next year looks more promising......perhaps!

I'd reckon not Stephen. The UK voted to leave the EU and today our PM has to go cap in hand to beg not to leave the EU. It's a farce of the highest proportions. It could not have been handled worse if they tried. As I've said previously, I believe that Brexit is now dead in the water. Our Parliament have said that we will never leave without a withdrawal agreement. So, the can goes further down the road until it dies a slow death.

[Jack Staff]

I thought that this latest bill was to make TM ASK for an extension, nothing more. OK TM asks the EU say no so we are back to square one.

That's my understanding this morning. I don't think anyone knows what is actually going on, including the people who are supposed to.

If the EU says no, Theresa has no alternative but to revoke Article 50.
That really is back to square one.
The EU do not want to be seen to force our hand, so will not say no to an extension on Friday (even though they need us more than... )

The question is short or long!

[barney]

The only thing that could possibly allow the brexit that the majority voted for would be a minor change to the backstop with either a time limit or a unilateral release. I can't see the EU allowing that now that we have no negotiation powers left.

[Manoverboard]

The only thing that could possibly allow the brexit that the majority voted for would be a minor change to the backstop with either a time limit or a unilateral release. I can't see the EU allowing that now that we have no negotiation powers left.

That has been my forecast all along as you know and I'm stuck sticking with it and especially so given the timely to-ing and fro-ing between EU high rollers and Ireland.

[towny44]

The only thing that could possibly allow the brexit that the majority voted for would be a minor change to the backstop with either a time limit or a unilateral release. I can't see the EU allowing that now that we have no negotiation powers left.

That has been my forecast all along as you know and I'm stuck sticking with it and especially so given the timely to-ing and fro-ing between EU high rollers and Ireland.

That will break Jack's heart if there is an eleventh hour offer from the EU.

[barney]

It defies belief that our negotiators thought that backstop was ever acceptable. I'm not holding my breath however. The EU plan is clearly for the UK to remain.

[Jack Staff]

It defies belief that our negotiators thought that backstop was ever acceptable. I'm not holding my breath however. The EU plan is clearly for the UK to remain.

It sums up the English attitude to Brexit.
While Brexit might seem like a good idea (to some), it fails at nearly ever hurdle of reality.
The EU plan is just to let the UK do what it wants to itself.

[barney]

It defies belief that our negotiators thought that backstop was ever acceptable. I'm not holding my breath however. The EU plan is clearly for the UK to remain.

It sums up the English attitude to Brexit.
While Brexit might seem like a good idea (to some), it fails at nearly ever hurdle of reality.
The EU plan is just to let the UK do what it wants to itself.

So, various EU leaders have not said over the years that their absolute preference would be for the UK to cancel brexit and remain in. I must have misheard.

[Jack Staff]

It defies belief that our negotiators thought that backstop was ever acceptable. I'm not holding my breath however. The EU plan is clearly for the UK to remain.

It sums up the English attitude to Brexit.
While Brexit might seem like a good idea (to some), it fails at nearly ever hurdle of reality.
The EU plan is just to let the UK do what it wants to itself.

So, various EU leaders have not said over the years that their absolute preference would be for the UK to cancel brexit and remain in. I must have misheard.

Yes they have, they are politicians.
The EU (itself) has kept out of our politics, as much as they can.
Just think about what some of our politicians have said!

[barney]

I never said that they interfered, merely that nearly all who have commented publicly have said that they would like the UK to remain. I don't blame them for that. Just stating something that has happened. They would desperately miss our 21 billion every year.

[Ray Scully]

It defies belief that our negotiators thought that backstop was ever acceptable. I'm not holding my breath however. The EU plan is clearly for the UK to remain.

Interesting times for the Hedge Funds Barney.

[towny44]

It sums up the English attitude to Brexit.
While Brexit might seem like a good idea (to some), it fails at nearly ever hurdle of reality.
The EU plan is just to let the UK do what it wants to itself.

So, various EU leaders have not said over the years that their absolute preference would be for the UK to cancel brexit and remain in. I must have misheard.

Yes they have, they are politicians.
The EU (itself) has kept out of our politics, as much as they can.
Just think about what some of our politicians have said!

Not sure any of our politicians claimed there was a place in hell reserved for EU leaders.

[Jack Staff]

Not sure any of our politicians claimed there was a place in hell reserved for EU leaders.

Jeremy Hunt likened the EU to the Soviet Union, to some members that is worse than hell.
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson compared the EU to Nazi Germany.

[Jack Staff]

They would desperately miss our 21 billion every year.

Barney please, not again. We did this to death two years ago.
It's not 21 billion.
You could possibly claim it's 19 but we know that is not true either.
We also know that it is not going to go to the health service as was claimed.