Brexit

[towny44]

Farage does not have a manifesto because he is running a business with the intention of making a lot of money for himself and for his multi-millionaire backers. Farage does not have one thing positive to propose. Try asking him about his policies on the NHS, the exchange rate, defence, education...

I ,am a bit confused QB, how is Farage going to make money for his backers, I can understand how he might make money for himself from his backers, but where does he have his money tree to make it for them?

I t's called 'Disaster Capitalism'. Causing big upheavals so as to make money out of the ensuing chaos. Drive down the values of companies and then pick them up on the cheap. Hedge funds made a killing out of the referendum.

https://thefinanser.com/2018/07/much-ni ... exit.html/

"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information."

Disaster Capitalism:
(4th July 2016) https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... back-state

And ask yourself why Arron Banks gave the leave campaign over £8m, the largest donation in British Politics.

A British parliamentary committee report concluded; "Arron Banks is believed to have donated £8.4m to the Leave campaign, the largest political donation in British politics, but it is unclear from where he obtained that amount of money"; "He failed to satisfy us that his own donations had, in fact, come from sources within the UK."
[/quote]


That all sounds a bit "Grassy knoll" to me, and I don't think Farage was alone in thinking that leave had lost the referendum, all the opinion polls had predicted this result.

[barney]

Or.... An alternative view could be that the remain team, with every major organisation behind them and over forty years of EU membership, could not convince enough voters that it was an organisation worth staying in.

Whatever, its now irrelevant.

Without a major change in Parliament, we are destined to remain, one way or another.

[Kendhni]

You misread it Ken.

I specifically said Parties not voters.

As the Tories and Labour both clearly stood on a public manifesto of honouring the 2016 result, it's safe to assume that they are both officially leave parties.

No I read it correctly - elsewhere I have seen people saying that they intend to add the totals of all 'leave' parties together to determine the current support of brexit - that is a very flawed argument.

BTW, I am moving the DUP out of the brexit count since like Labour and Conservatives they will likely contain a mixture of voters.

[towny44]

You misread it Ken.

I specifically said Parties not voters.

As the Tories and Labour both clearly stood on a public manifesto of honouring the 2016 result, it's safe to assume that they are both officially leave parties.

No I read it correctly - elsewhere I have seen people saying that they intend to add the totals of all 'leave' parties together to determine the current support of brexit - that is a very flawed argument.

BTW, I am moving the DUP out of the brexit count since like Labour and Conservatives they will likely contain a mixture of voters.

So if the Brexit party get 31% of the vote, which is the predictions from the current polls, will you be assuming that the remaining voters for Labour and Conservative are all remainers, just to kid yourself that remain is now in the majority?

[barney]

That seems to be the thrust of that argument John.

Unless Brexit gets more than 50% the majority are anti brexit.

Strange logic but that's remainers for you.

The papers are saying that they think that Brexit has done very well in Northern Labour strongholds.
Backs up what you and Oldbluefox have been saying.

It will be fascinating on Sunday night to see how it all pans out.

One thing absolutely for sure is that UK politics will not be the same again, for better or worse.

[Quizzical Bob]

So if the Brexit party get 31% of the vote, which is the predictions from the current polls, will you be assuming that the remaining voters for Labour and Conservative are all remainers, just to kid yourself that remain is now in the majority?

These were elections for the European Parliament. There is no relationship to support within the UK for Remaining or Leaving.

To find that out you would need a nationwide single-issue vote.

[Quizzical Bob]

That all sounds a bit "Grassy knoll" to me, and I don't think Farage was alone in thinking that leave had lost the referendum, all the opinion polls had predicted this result.

No, Farage had access to polls that were not available to the public.

[towny44]

That all sounds a bit "Grassy knoll" to me, and I don't think Farage was alone in thinking that leave had lost the referendum, all the opinion polls had predicted this result.

No, Farage had access to polls that were not available to the public.

Do you know for certain, that his statement was made after he had access to these polls and not before? One other point that you might wish to comment on is why the development of the result seemed to come as a complete surprise to the entire media, and why only Nigel had access to these polls predicting a leave win.

[Ray Scully]

Hey folk after Mrs. May's resignation this morning we should be able to take a rest from Brexit to concentrate on the civil war which will now break out in the Tory party.

[barney]

Don't you believe it Ray

This leadership campaign will be ALL about Brexit.

[Ray Scully]

Don't you believe it Ray

This leadership campaign will be ALL about Brexit.

Barney, if you had a vote who would it be for, Mark Francois ?

[barney]

I'm not a Conservative Ray.

I couldn't care less who they vote for.

Given the best of a bad bunch, I'd go for Leadsom.

If they stand, Tudenghat, Mercer or Brady could do ok.

[Quizzical Bob]

Do you know for certain, that his statement was made after he had access to these polls and not before? One other point that you might wish to comment on is why the development of the result seemed to come as a complete surprise to the entire media, and why only Nigel had access to these polls predicting a leave win.

Your naivety does you credit, but hundres and hndreds of millions were made by hedge funds that day. As Cicero was fond of saying, "Cui Bono". "Who benefits?"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... -the-crash

"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information.

Bloomberg’s account is based in part on interviews over seven months with more than 30 knowledgeable current and former polling-company executives, consultants and traders, nearly all of whom spoke only on the condition they not be named because of confidentiality agreements. Pollsters said they believed Brexit yielded one of the most profitable single days in the history of their industry. Some hedge funds that hired them cleared in the hundreds of millions of dollars, while their industry on the whole was battered by the chaos Brexit wrought in global financial markets. Although confidentiality agreements have made it difficult to discover the identities of many of the hedge funds that bought exclusive or syndicated exit polls, at least a dozen were involved, and potentially many more, Bloomberg found.

The private exit poll that appears to have had the most clients was conducted by Farage’s favorite pollster and friend, Damian Lyons-Lowe, whose company is called Survation. It was sold to multiple clients and correctly predicted Leave, according to Farage and other sources familiar with the results. In an interview with Bloomberg, Farage said he learned of Survation’s results before making at least one of two public concessions that night, meaning there was a good chance he was feeding specious sentiment into markets."

And from The Daily Mail, of all people:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... money.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... money.html

[Ray Scully]

Don't you believe it Ray

This leadership campaign will be ALL about Brexit.

I wonder Barney, should an arch Brexiteer be the new leader, would that person have the cajones to push through a no deal given what could be the severity of the outcome. As we all know on this forum it is easy to 'shout the odds' when you have no responsibility for the outcome

[towny44]

Do you know for certain, that his statement was made after he had access to these polls and not before? One other point that you might wish to comment on is why the development of the result seemed to come as a complete surprise to the entire media, and why only Nigel had access to these polls predicting a leave win.

Your naivety does you credit, but hundres and hndreds of millions were made by hedge funds that day. As Cicero was fond of saying, "Cui Bono". "Who benefits?"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... -the-crash

"One person with questions still to answer is Farage, a former commodities broker who also went to work for a London currency trading company after he moved into politics. He twice told the world on election night that Leave had likely lost, when he had information suggesting his side had actually won. He also has changed his story about who told him what regarding that very valuable piece of information.

Bloomberg’s account is based in part on interviews over seven months with more than 30 knowledgeable current and former polling-company executives, consultants and traders, nearly all of whom spoke only on the condition they not be named because of confidentiality agreements. Pollsters said they believed Brexit yielded one of the most profitable single days in the history of their industry. Some hedge funds that hired them cleared in the hundreds of millions of dollars, while their industry on the whole was battered by the chaos Brexit wrought in global financial markets. Although confidentiality agreements have made it difficult to discover the identities of many of the hedge funds that bought exclusive or syndicated exit polls, at least a dozen were involved, and potentially many more, Bloomberg found.

The private exit poll that appears to have had the most clients was conducted by Farage’s favorite pollster and friend, Damian Lyons-Lowe, whose company is called Survation. It was sold to multiple clients and correctly predicted Leave, according to Farage and other sources familiar with the results. In an interview with Bloomberg, Farage said he learned of Survation’s results before making at least one of two public concessions that night, meaning there was a good chance he was feeding specious sentiment into markets."

And from The Daily Mail, of all people:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... money.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... money.html

Bob, repeating the same comments does not in fact strengthen your case, and you still have not answered the question that IF these leave winning polls actually existed why did none of the media organizations gain access to them. Further since any profits made by hedge funds have to be as a result of losses made elsewhere, which begs the question why were all hedge fund managers not aware of these polls, or could it in fact be that half were right and the other half wrong, resulting in some companies making profits at the expense of others.

[Kendhni]

You misread it Ken.

I specifically said Parties not voters.

As the Tories and Labour both clearly stood on a public manifesto of honouring the 2016 result, it's safe to assume that they are both officially leave parties.

No I read it correctly - elsewhere I have seen people saying that they intend to add the totals of all 'leave' parties together to determine the current support of brexit - that is a very flawed argument.

BTW, I am moving the DUP out of the brexit count since like Labour and Conservatives they will likely contain a mixture of voters.

So if the Brexit party get 31% of the vote, which is the predictions from the current polls, will you be assuming that the remaining voters for Labour and Conservative are all remainers, just to kid yourself that remain is now in the majority?

Not even close to what I was saying. I said that any assumption is flawed unless The Brexit Party Ltd. and UKIP together get over 50% of the vote. The only way to know is if it is put back to the people - which is getting more likely by the day.

[Kendhni]

Don't you believe it Ray

This leadership campaign will be ALL about Brexit.

I wonder Barney, should an arch Brexiteer be the new leader, would that person have the cajones to push through a no deal given what could be the severity of the outcome. As we all know on this forum it is easy to 'shout the odds' when you have no responsibility for the outcome

I don't think it really matters who gets in next - if they fail (which is quite probable) they will be accused of being a 'remainer at heart'.

Of all the options 'no deal' is the dumbest and should be taken off the table, but it looks like Boris is the front runner and has claimed he is going for 'no deal' (which also happens to be Farage's brexit flavour of the month - but then he has backed every option depending on popular opinion). 'No deal' has never been put to the people and has already been rejected by parliament on at least 2 occasions ... why are the minority that back 'no deal' being allowed to continually present it - seems to be a case of forcing votes until they get the answer they want?

[david63]

seems to be a case of forcing votes until they get the answer they want

I thought that was "standard practice" for the EU

[Kendhni]

seems to be a case of forcing votes until they get the answer they want

I thought that was "standard practice" for the EU

Not really, like the 'bent bananas' story, that is just one of those were the reality and the myth do not align. I know that some people quote the Republic of Ireland vote, but they totally fail to understand (or ignore) the reality that the original vote was rejected due to some concerns which had been addressed by the time of the second vote.

But given that 'no deal' seems to be having multiple votes then, if it is the chosen brexit strategy and manages to muster a majority in the House of Commons, then it should be put to the people (the public has not had an opportunity to vote on 'no deal' yet).

[towny44]

I thought Theresa's speech was excellent, if it had been in a TV drama it could not have been executed better, and I don't believe she was acting.
However my main concern now is that she may not be remembered solely as the the PM who could not deliver brexit, but might be remembered as the PM who allowed Labour to win the next election, and the thought that this would lead to John McDonnell being handed the purse strings of the 5th largest economy in the world just does not bear thinking about. Because unless the next Tory leader can command the support of the DUP there is every likelihood that Labour would win a no confidence motion.

[david63]

Because unless the next Tory leader can command the support of the DUP there is every likelihood that Labour would win a no confidence motion.

Not necessarily. Whilst the DUP are not "happy bunnies" at the moment the alternative of having a Labour Government is certainly not something that they want.

[Ray Scully]

[

But given that 'no deal' seems to be having multiple votes then, if it is the chosen brexit strategy and manages to muster a majority in the House of Commons, then it should be put to the people (the public has not had an opportunity to vote on 'no deal' yet).
[/quote]

Whoa! put no deal to the people? can't do that, they may change their minds.

[oldbluefox]

Do you think there would have been a second referendum had we voted to remain?

[Ray Scully]

Do you think there would have been a second referendum had we voted to remain?

Undoubtedly if the vote had been as close. How else would Farage continue on his very lucrative gravy train ????

[Kendhni]

Do you think there would have been a second referendum had we voted to remain?

Farage openly stated that 48/52 would be unfinished business and he would continue his fight - so he would not have considered that the end, so why should remainers.

I have been reading a few interesting articles that suggest Farages concession of defeat on the night of the referendum was a deliberate attempt to manipulate the markets. At that point he knew brexit had achieved a small majority, so he was giving a bit of pay back to his chum Banks (as well as himself) - quite intriguing, could be little more than gossip, but there seems to be some compelling evidence.