Current Affairs

[Quizzical Bob]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing much employed by politicians, journalists and self appointed experts

It wasn’t hindsight at the time, was it? Many people were questioning why the UK was so far behind other European states in implementing a lockdown. And now we’re are seeing the abject consequences. We could see the warnings yet we ignored them.

Self-appointed experts? Do me a favour. This country is being run by a bunch of inept, useless self-serving empire builders who are only worried about covering their own backs when the great reckoning comes.

People like Duncan Selbie of PHE for example.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing much employed by politicians, journalists and self appointed experts

It wasn’t hindsight at the time, was it? Many people were questioning why the UK was so far behind other European states in implementing a lockdown. And now we’re are seeing the abject consequences. We could see the warnings yet we ignored them.

Self-appointed experts? Do me a favour. This country is being run by a bunch of inept, useless self-serving empire builders who are only worried about covering their own backs when the great reckoning comes.

People like Duncan Selbie of PHE for example.

Maybe you're right Moby.

[Gill W]

10000 people have died in hospital alone.

As I have said before this needs putting in context (which nobody is doing) There are on average 1,400 deaths a week in this country so the 10,000 that have died in the last month is less than one week's "normal" death rate. Nobody is saying whether this is an additional 10,000 or a crossover from other deaths and that some (many?) might well have died anyway.

The media seem to think that just throwing random figures around will prove something - but I am not sure what it is.

There is a saying that statistics can prove anything if presented the right way.

As Merv mentioned, the normal figure is 1400 deaths in the UK per day.

Today's figure of C19 deaths is 717. This is the figure for deaths in hospital of people who tested positive for C19 in the 24 hour period up until 5pm on 12th April. (It should be noted that that the figures over the weekend are always lower than midweek, due to delays in reporting, and spike back up on Tuesdays. As this is Easter, the biggest spike will probably be on Wednesday)

This is not a random figure that is being thrown around - it is what the Department of Health is reporting.

It seems that it may not be the case to say that all the 717 would have died anyway within a few months. Research by my friendly actuary says that 93% of the cases he looked at who were critically ill with C19, were able to live without assistance in daily activities. Furthermore 93% of intensive care admissions did not have severe comorbidities.. So there's a suggestion that those dying with c19, were not previously at deaths door. i.e. they may be dying before their time. I'd give you the Twitter name of the actuary, who is very well respected and works for a major bank, but I realise that you won't be interested.

We also have to remember that people are still dying from other things as well. Not to mention there's reportedly lots of people dying with C19 in care homes.

New figures on deaths are due from the ONS tomorrow, but they only go up to the 3rd April. Therefore, there will be a lag before we can truly say we have reached the peak.

However, I think it's reasonable to say that a lot of people are dying with C19 - I'm not sure what merit there is in trying to pretend otherwise

[towny44]

A thought on the numbers game. We all realise the death toll is higher than the published numbers. As is the number of people infected because minor symptoms simply don't get reported to the authorities. The only accurate figure is probably the number of people in intensive care. But what matters is they are consistent in the way they report it as it is the trend that will tell us when we are beginning to beat this thing.

The number of infections and the number of deaths are much higher than the official figures. They are only testing those who go to hospital, unless you are Prince Charles or a politician, and they are only sending anyone to hospital if they are extremely serious and if there is any room for them.

Effectively the intensive care beds are being continuously kept topped up within their capacity. Without widespread testing we have no way of monitoring the progress of this epidemic. This goes against all established methods of disease prevention and control.

Lockdown should have started to or three weeks earlier and as for allowing Cheltenham to go ahead words fail me.

Not to mention these Stereophonics concertsm

Fri 28 Feb – Sheffield Flydsa Arena
Sat 29 Feb – Birmingham Arena
Mon 2 March – Brighton Centre
Tues 3 March – Bournemouth Intl Centre
Fri 6 March – London The O2
Sat 7 March Nottingham – Motorpoint Arena
Mon 9 March – Newcastle Utilita Arena
Tues 10 March – Aberdeen P&J Live Arena
Wed 11 March – Glasgow The SSE Hydro
Fri 13 March – Manchester Arena
Sat 14 March – Cardiff Motorpoint Arena
Sun 15 March – Cardiff Motorpoint Arena

QB, the range of differences across infected countries is massive, no one seems to know, YET, which is the best way to tackle this epidemic, so unless you are an undiscovered genius, I don't think I will subscribe to your views that our govt dont know what they are doing just yet.

[Gill W]

There is no point whatever in looking back and saying what we should have done. That's too late. Those with better ideas should have spoken up at the time.

The only way we will get through this at all is a common message and pulling together. Sowing dissent will kill people. The experts and politicians should have their debates behind closed doors and only make pronouncements when they have an agreed line they can ask us to follow. Those with no knowledge but full of opinions should simply be quiet.

To be fair, there will no doubt be enquiries as to what happened, particularly if we end up with the highest death rate in Europe. But that will be for later. To be equally fair, people were speaking up weeks ago, for example questioning the wisdom of the Cheltenham meeting going ahead and still allowing huge concerts go ahead. Not to mention allowing the Liverpool/Athletico Madrid match to go ahead, with people flying in from Spain, at the time the virus was tightening their grip in that country. People were also calling for a lockdown to start at least two weeks before the government finally got around to it.

I totally agree with your point regarding pulling together and with a common message.

However, this government was elected for one reason - and it wasn't for it's competence. With Johnson out of action, we seem to be drifting along, at a time of national crisis when we need real leadership. It's not unreasonable that people will question whats going on.

If people were to shut up about their opinions, this forum would be very quiet!

[Ray B]

So for the third day running, the in question of "will you apologize" has been asked.
As well as when in it all ending

[Mervyn and Trish]

QB suggests lockdown should have started 2 to 3 weeks earlier. 3 weeks before, on 2 March the UK had 33 confirmed cases and up to 4 March 1 death. Even by 9 March there were only just over 300 cases and fewer than 16 deaths. I wonder if small businesses would have accepted devastation of their income by lockdown at that point?

This country is not a police state and such a stringent matter as lockdown can only be by consent and co-operation. Even now some people believe it is acceptable to flout the guidance. How much worse would that have been if the lockdown had felt premature?

[Mervyn and Trish]

Interesting answer to the mask question. Essentially the purpose of the type of masks generally available to the public is to protect others from them, not them from others. Exactly as a surgeon operating wears a mask to protect the patient, not themselves.

But most of the public wearing masks don't understand that. The real purpose of those simple masks is much better served by people with any symptoms following guidance and staying home self isolating and the rest of us avoiding close contact.

Of course the masks needed by staff nursing infectious patients are an entirely different type and need to be used as part of more extensive PPE.

[Manoverboard]

QB suggests lockdown should have started 2 to 3 weeks earlier. 3 weeks before, on 2 March the UK had 33 confirmed cases and up to 4 March 1 death. Even by 9 March there were only just over 300 cases and fewer than 16 deaths. I wonder if small businesses would have accepted devastation of their income by lockdown at that point?

This country is not a police state and such a stringent matter as lockdown can only be by consent and co-operation. Even now some people believe it is acceptable to flout the guidance. How much worse would that have been if the lockdown had felt premature?

QB suggested it should have happened at the time, not just today and with the gift of hindsight. I suspect that he did so because of the likely impact on his own business knowing this will vary depending on the length of time we are all in Lockdown. If memory serves me correctly QB made exactly the same points during the Brexit debacle.

The point I am making is that I think QB is fearful for the state of his business rather than attempting to be a know it all.

Puts tin hat on .... and retires to a safer distance.

[towny44]

There is no point whatever in looking back and saying what we should have done. That's too late. Those with better ideas should have spoken up at the time.

The only way we will get through this at all is a common message and pulling together. Sowing dissent will kill people. The experts and politicians should have their debates behind closed doors and only make pronouncements when they have an agreed line they can ask us to follow. Those with no knowledge but full of opinions should simply be quiet.

To be fair, there will no doubt be enquiries as to what happened, particularly if we end up with the highest death rate in Europe. But that will be for later. To be equally fair, people were speaking up weeks ago, for example questioning the wisdom of the Cheltenham meeting going ahead and still allowing huge concerts go ahead. Not to mention allowing the Liverpool/Athletico Madrid match to go ahead, with people flying in from Spain, at the time the virus was tightening their grip in that country. People were also calling for a lockdown to start at least two weeks before the government finally got around to it.

I totally agree with your point regarding pulling together and with a common message.

However, this government was elected for one reason - and it wasn't for it's competence. With Johnson out of action, we seem to be drifting along, at a time of national crisis when we need real leadership. It's not unreasonable that people will question whats going on.

If people were to shut up about their opinions, this forum would be very quiet!

Gill your political bias is shining through in your posts, something you are entitled to of course, but if and when we disagree with you and stress our views, please don't stamp your foot and paddy as you often do.
So here goes, I totally disagree with these comments, the govt have taken the advice of experts all the way through this crisis, and I see no sign that they are incompetent nor are they drifting aimlessly.

[Manoverboard]

Taking the advice of Twitterettes is the way to go Towny, surely you have worked that out by now

[barney]

A perfect reason for not using Twitter.
It’s merely a sounding board for people who need confirmation of their existing beliefs.
Generally for the hard of thinking.
Twitter

[Mervyn and Trish]

QB suggests lockdown should have started 2 to 3 weeks earlier. 3 weeks before, on 2 March the UK had 33 confirmed cases and up to 4 March 1 death. Even by 9 March there were only just over 300 cases and fewer than 16 deaths. I wonder if small businesses would have accepted devastation of their income by lockdown at that point?

This country is not a police state and such a stringent matter as lockdown can only be by consent and co-operation. Even now some people believe it is acceptable to flout the guidance. How much worse would that have been if the lockdown had felt premature?

QB suggested it should have happened at the time, not just today and with the gift of hindsight. I suspect that he did so because of the likely impact on his own business knowing this will vary depending on the length of time we are all in Lockdown. If memory serves me correctly QB made exactly the same points during the Brexit debacle.

The point I am making is that I think QB is fearful for the state of his business rather than attempting to be a know it all.

Puts tin hat on .... and retires to a safer distance.

I'll need a tin hat too. I didn't see many small businesses saying please shut us down at the beginning of March. So my point remains. Desirable or not I don't think it would have been enforceable at that time.

[barney]

We stayed open until told to close.
So far, estimated 8k down on last year.

[Gill W]

QB suggests lockdown should have started 2 to 3 weeks earlier. 3 weeks before, on 2 March the UK had 33 confirmed cases and up to 4 March 1 death. Even by 9 March there were only just over 300 cases and fewer than 16 deaths. I wonder if small businesses would have accepted devastation of their income by lockdown at that point?

This country is not a police state and such a stringent matter as lockdown can only be by consent and co-operation. Even now some people believe it is acceptable to flout the guidance. How much worse would that have been if the lockdown had felt premature?

New Zealand locked down early, when they had about 360 cases. It looks to have been a success as their case count is still low and deaths minimal. From the outside looking in, Jacinda Ardern seems to be competent and respected. From what I’ve read, she explained why the lockdown was necessary and the people of New Zealand have bought into what she said, with excellent results.

Compare and contrast with Sweden, a country that hasn’t taken firm measures

[david63]

Hindsight being what it is I suspect that after the event the Government will accept that they could/should have done some things differently but will not, nor should not, accept that they did anything wrong. What is the point of having a Chief Medical Officer and a Chief Scientific Officer, together with their teams, if you do not listen to their advice and after all they are the experts in all of this.

I have said this before that in such a fast moving situation there is not the time to forensic examine every point that is made - and some political parties need to remember the actions taken on advice that could, and should, have been validated.

[Gill W]

A perfect reason for not using Twitter.
It’s merely a sounding board for people who need confirmation of their existing beliefs.
Generally for the hard of thinking.
Twitter

If you’ve ever used Twitter, you were obviously using it wrong

If you haven’t used Twitter, you are being dismissive of something you haven’t experienced

[Gill W]

Taking the advice of Twitterettes is the way to go Towny, surely you have worked that out by now

Your loss.

Stay in your little bubble with your pals, no skin off my nose.

[david63]

New Zealand locked down early, when they had about 360 cases. It looks to have been a success as their case count is still low and deaths minimal.

New Zealand is a totally different demographic to the UK. First of all they do not have population densities that we have and most of the country is well spread out. Also most of the cases there were brought in by tourists who did not heed the lockdown.

Another factor to bear in mind is that it is summer in NZ and their is a possibility that the virus is not as active in the summer - which may, or may not, be true.

Furthermore there are many Kiwis who are ignoring the lockdown and going to their second homes for the Easter break - and yes this is fact as we have family in NZ.

[Gill W]

There is no point whatever in looking back and saying what we should have done. That's too late. Those with better ideas should have spoken up at the time.

The only way we will get through this at all is a common message and pulling together. Sowing dissent will kill people. The experts and politicians should have their debates behind closed doors and only make pronouncements when they have an agreed line they can ask us to follow. Those with no knowledge but full of opinions should simply be quiet.

To be fair, there will no doubt be enquiries as to what happened, particularly if we end up with the highest death rate in Europe. But that will be for later. To be equally fair, people were speaking up weeks ago, for example questioning the wisdom of the Cheltenham meeting going ahead and still allowing huge concerts go ahead. Not to mention allowing the Liverpool/Athletico Madrid match to go ahead, with people flying in from Spain, at the time the virus was tightening their grip in that country. People were also calling for a lockdown to start at least two weeks before the government finally got around to it.

I totally agree with your point regarding pulling together and with a common message.

However, this government was elected for one reason - and it wasn't for it's competence. With Johnson out of action, we seem to be drifting along, at a time of national crisis when we need real leadership. It's not unreasonable that people will question whats going on.

If people were to shut up about their opinions, this forum would be very quiet!

Gill your political bias is shining through in your posts, something you are entitled to of course, but if and when we disagree with you and stress our views, please don't stamp your foot and paddy as you often do.
So here goes, I totally disagree with these comments, the govt have taken the advice of experts all the way through this crisis, and I see no sign that they are incompetent nor are they drifting aimlessly.

We are allowed to disagree.

Time will tell who was right.

[screwy]

Some may have us believe that comrade Corbyn or the Lib Dem’s would be doing a better job.? Anyway I for one am very happy OUR PM has survived.

[towny44]

We are allowed to disagree.

Time will tell who was right.

There really is no right or wrong on this, if each govt. has done what they believe was the best, based on the best scientific and economic information available, then they will have done their best for their country.

[barney]

It does appear that geography has a lot to do with the spread.
More densely populated areas are much worse hit.
North Devon still has only one fatality whereas the vast majority of Devon cases are in the more populated south of the county.
Cities worse. Rural better.

[Mervyn and Trish]

I wouldn't be dismissive of Twitter. However it is most certainly not the purveyor of unfiltered impartial news and opinion. It is entirely made up of the personal opinions of its users. The vast majority of those users tend to follow like minded people and thus find reinforcement of their own views. Gill may have opted to follow a balanced and carefully selected range of diverse opinion and experts in their fields. But she would be the exception.

[oldbluefox]

We are allowed to disagree.

Time will tell who was right.

There really is no right or wrong on this, if each govt. has done what they believe was the best, based on the best scientific and economic information available, then they will have done their best for their country.

Had Corbyn got in and found himself in Boris' situation we could now have Diane Abbott taking the reins!!!! Maybe not but the thought of our socialist friends being in charge is the stuff nightmares are made of. At the end of all of this hindsight will win.