Current Affairs

[oldbluefox]

It does appear that geography has a lot to do with the spread.
More densely populated areas are much worse hit.
North Devon still has only one fatality whereas the vast majority of Devon cases are in the more populated south of the county.
Cities worse. Rural better.

Here in Cumbria we have had more than our share of Covid-19 cases which is strange considering we are more sparsely populated than many counties. in the south. The only explanation I can find is the number of people retiring here, good road and rail links to the south of the county and tourists/second home owners coming in from outside. We also have our fair share of the usual suspects who flaunt the lockdown and think it doesn't apply to them.

[Gill W]

New Zealand locked down early, when they had about 360 cases. It looks to have been a success as their case count is still low and deaths minimal.

New Zealand is a totally different demographic to the UK. First of all they do not have population densities that we have and most of the country is well spread out. Also most of the cases there were brought in by tourists who did not heed the lockdown.

Another factor to bear in mind is that it is summer in NZ and their is a possibility that the virus is not as active in the summer - which may, or may not, be true.

Furthermore there are many Kiwis who are ignoring the lockdown and going to their second homes for the Easter break - and yes this is fact as we have family in NZ.

If you had quoted my entire tweet, you would have seen that my suggested comparison was Sweden, a country of similar size and population density to New Zealand

[Gill W]

I wouldn't be dismissive of Twitter. However it is most certainly not the purveyor of unfiltered impartial news and opinion. It is entirely made up of the personal opinions of its users. The vast majority of those users tend to follow like minded people and thus find reinforcement of their own views. Gill may have opted to follow a balanced and carefully selected range of diverse opinion and experts in their fields. But she would be the exception.

It’s true that people tend to follow like minded people on Twitter. I’ve now got a network of people who interest me, inform me and entertain me, some of them have become good friends. We generally share core values, but don’t necessarily agree on everything.

I think people who don’t use Twitter tend to think it’s all fake news and conspiracy theories that are being spread. This, of course, does happen, but most sensible people do some due diligence. I always have a look at someone’s timeline and their followers to get a sense of who they are before deciding if they are worth attention. I’m certainly not unique in this.

One of the things that I really like is that you don’t have to stay within your network of followers. You can search keywords and hashtags to find out what everyone is saying, to get a feel for the general mood of any situation.

I think those who dismiss Twitter are people that don’t really understand it.

[Manoverboard]

I think those who dismiss Twitter are people that don’t really understand it.

Accepting that I do not understand it fully I believe that our Children and Grand Children do and they have no time for it. Collectively we believe that Twitter is largely populated by those who have extreme convictions else a lack of confidence in their own decision making processes and need to look to others to reinforce their minority and negative views.

[towny44]

I wouldn't be dismissive of Twitter. However it is most certainly not the purveyor of unfiltered impartial news and opinion. It is entirely made up of the personal opinions of its users. The vast majority of those users tend to follow like minded people and thus find reinforcement of their own views. Gill may have opted to follow a balanced and carefully selected range of diverse opinion and experts in their fields. But she would be the exception.

It’s true that people tend to follow like minded people on Twitter. I’ve now got a network of people who interest me, inform me and entertain me, some of them have become good friends. We generally share core values, but don’t necessarily agree on everything.

I think people who don’t use Twitter tend to think it’s all fake news and conspiracy theories that are being spread. This, of course, does happen, but most sensible people do some due diligence. I always have a look at someone’s timeline and their followers to get a sense of who they are before deciding if they are worth attention. I’m certainly not unique in this.

One of the things that I really like is that you don’t have to stay within your network of followers. You can search keywords and hashtags to find out what everyone is saying, to get a feel for the general mood of any situation.

I think those who dismiss Twitter are people that don’t really understand it.

You are so right Gill I don't understand it, I find Facebook is almost too much for me to get to grips with, and about 90% appears to be fake to me, so tell me why would Twitter be any different, and how does anyone have the time, energy, expertise and inclination to wade through the morass to sort the wheat from the chaff?

[david63]

If you had quoted my entire tweet

Never having seen any of your tweets I would find that somewhat difficult to do!

As far as Twitter, Facebook, any other social media site or even fora if anyone searches hard enough you can find something that is in agreement with your own views as much as you can find the total opposite to your views - and all shades in-between.

[towny44]

Gill, maybe my previous comment was a tad harsh and too sarcastic, you apparently enjoy your experiences on Twitter and its not up to us to try and ridicule you for it. However I would just like you to be more circumspect about accepting other posters views as being fully valid, take me for instance I never allow the views of left wing journalists to undermine my attitudes, however valid they might seem, nor to influence any posts I make, and I feel fairly certain that posters with opposite views to mine would equally do the same.
As a result I doubt that you are getting anything but biased opinions from posters you follow, and they are no more likely to be accurate than my posts on here which only reflect my views.

[CaroleF]

All through, the Government has said they are following the Science. If they ignored the Scientific experts' advice the opposition would be screaming that the Government think they know better than the Scientists. They really can't win. All they can do is what the experts tell them is the best course but in addition they have to take account of what the country will accept. There is comment today that the word 'Exit' will not be used as it seems to indicate an abrupt finish to the lockdown. More likely they will want to 'Ease' things gradually which seems entirely sensible to me. I really should stop watching the part of the Downing Street broadcasts when they go to the media for questions. I end up shouting at the TV! If one more broadcaster asks for a date for the 'Exit' or asks for an apology well.....and as for Robert Peston!!!

Carole

[oldbluefox]

Carole, calm down dear!!!
I can't get it out of my head that if Corbyn had got in we could now have Diane Abbott leading us.
Seems to me the media are more interested in creating the news than reporting it.

[Ray B]

So, when will the lock down end.

[screwy]

September 202.?

[Mervyn and Trish]

I really should stop watching the part of the Downing Street broadcasts when they go to the media for questions.

That's exactly what I do!

[Mervyn and Trish]

I see they have now published some data on deaths outside hospital and of course it makes the overall number higher. But not as much higher as I'd feared. I suppose actually that should be no surprise as the worst cases will mostly be in hospital before they sadly die there. That is the way this thing progresses.

I was also interested when they explained why the statistic they are using daily is deaths in hospital. It is simply that that is the figure being used internationally so to get any sense of a global picture we need to use the same data. It is also important not to change the rules day by day if we are to get any sense of trend.

Meantime Eamonn Holmes gets my "idiot of the week award" for his careless remarks about the 5G conspiracy theory. I'm not surprised it has caused a flurry of complaints and I hope his boss gives him a thorough boll***ing.

[Frank Manning]

I can't get it out of my head that if Corbyn had got in we could now have Diane Abbott leading us.
Seems to me the media are more interested in creating the news than reporting it.
[/quote]

Spot on! I've become very disillusioned with the Tories over recent years, but I am glad for the moment that they have a decent majority. Boris is an anathema to me, but Raab and Hancock have performed well from what was really a standing start. Hancock is the 'fall guy', he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't'. The media vultures sensing a scalp are lining him up but I admire the guy. The scientists dont seem like idiots to me.

I agree with CaroleF. Peston is a first rate twit (I am using ultra polite language). It's all "look at me"stuff.

Did anyone see Rita Chatkrabati interviewing Dr Chris Smith yesterday afternoon? He was talking a lot of sense imho, and deserves a wider platform to counter the sensationalism in the media.

[Gill W]

I think those who dismiss Twitter are people that don’t really understand it.

Accepting that I do not understand it fully I believe that our Children and Grand Children do and they have no time for it. Collectively we believe that Twitter is largely populated by those who have extreme convictions else a lack of confidence in their own decision making processes and need to look to others to reinforce their minority and negative views.

I hate to tell you this, but there's plenty on Twitter who espouse exactly the same views as you

[Gill W]

You are so right Gill I don't understand it, I find Facebook is almost too much for me to get to grips with, and about 90% appears to be fake to me, so tell me why would Twitter be any different, and how does anyone have the time, energy, expertise and inclination to wade through the morass to sort the wheat from the chaff?

I think you probably know more about Facebook than I do. I joined FB about 10 years ago, only because I was literally forced to. My office was closing, and we were all being made redundant, so colleagues decided it'd be a good idea to keep in touch by Facebook. I had zero interest in joining, but had my arm twisted. As it turned out, I keep in touch with those I want to by other means, and I barely every log into FB because I loath it so much. The only time I look is when I have something specific to look at, such as recently the comments regarding P&O and their cancellation policy.

A few years ago, a friend suggested Twitter to me, as she thought I'd enjoy it. I was reluctant, but I gave it a try and to my surprise, enjoyed it. The thing with Twitter, is that you don't have to wade through the morass everyday. I've been doing it for 4 years, and you gradually build a network. You start following people who tweet things that you find interesting, and people start following you, if they find you interesting. I'm always careful to vet anyone who starts following me - if I don't like the look of them, I block them immediately.

I now have my network, and what appears in my timeline are things likely to be of interest to me. Everyone has a different timeline based on who they follow. As I've been careful with the building of my network, I'm less likely to be flooded with fake news. Even so, if I read something , I will check it with a few verified sources before I accept it as 'real'.

[Gill W]

Gill, maybe my previous comment was a tad harsh and too sarcastic, you apparently enjoy your experiences on Twitter and its not up to us to try and ridicule you for it. However I would just like you to be more circumspect about accepting other posters views as being fully valid, take me for instance I never allow the views of left wing journalists to undermine my attitudes, however valid they might seem, nor to influence any posts I make, and I feel fairly certain that posters with opposite views to mine would equally do the same.
As a result I doubt that you are getting anything but biased opinions from posters you follow, and they are no more likely to be accurate than my posts on here which only reflect my views.

I think you'll have to spell it out to me - what do I need to do to be 'more circumspect ? If I don't agree with anyone, I would never say, for example, 'your views are rubbish and you are talking out of your backside'. THAT is definitely not circumspect. If I wish to respond to a post I disagree with, I always try to explain why, and give examples to illustrate my point, which I find to be circumspect. What else should I be doing? what happens when someone doesn't agree with me? Should they be more circumspect in what they say to me?

You say that you don't allow the views of left wing journalists to undermine your attitudes. Therefore, one could conclude that you allow the views of right wing journalists to bolster and reinforce your views and get your opinions from them.

If you find that comment to be insulting and disrespectful, then that's exactly how I feel about some of your comments, which give the impression that you think I am unable to form my own opinions and believe everything that I read in order to reinforce my confirmation bias.

Who do you think I'm following on Twitter? The people I follow are as eclectic as the things I'm interested in. I follow people who Tweet about history, reading, films, theatre, TV, art, photography, current affairs, postcards, pensions, cruising, and nostalgia. Not to mention the people I just generally chat to. Believe it or not, it's not all about politics and conspiracy theories!

[Gill W]

I see they have now published some data on deaths outside hospital and of course it makes the overall number higher. But not as much higher as I'd feared. I suppose actually that should be no surprise as the worst cases will mostly be in hospital before they sadly die there. That is the way this thing progresses.

I was also interested when they explained why the statistic they are using daily is deaths in hospital. It is simply that that is the figure being used internationally so to get any sense of a global picture we need to use the same data. It is also important not to change the rules day by day if we are to get any sense of trend.

Meantime Eamonn Holmes gets my "idiot of the week award" for his careless remarks about the 5G conspiracy theory. I'm not surprised it has caused a flurry of complaints and I hope his boss gives him a thorough boll***ing.

Is that the ONS figures published today? If so, bear in mind they only go up to 3rd April.

Regarding care home deaths, at least some countries are including care home deaths in their official figures. France definitely include care homes in their official stats, that was why there was a day a week or two back when the figure spiked sharply because all the care home deaths were added in. France say that about 45% of their deaths have happened in care homes.

ONS say that, in the week ending 3rd April, 16,387 deaths were registered. This is 6082 more than the 5 year average. I think we can all agree we are in the grip of a major catastrophy.

[towny44]

ONS stats say that 15% more deaths due to Covid19 up to April 3rd than those in hospital, so if that is still the same percentage then we could assume that deaths outside hospitals would be about 1800 now, making the UK total 13800.
Which probably means we are likely to exceed the 20,000 deaths that Chris Whitty or Patrick Vallance said we would be very fortunate if we could keep our death rate no higher.

[oldbluefox]

Does that figure include those who died of CV19 as opposed to those who died with CV19? Listening to a medic today on the radio he was saying that many of those who have died in care homes would have sadly died this year anyway. CV19 may merely speed their demise. It depends how the doctor records the reason for death whether it is included in returns for CV19 purposes. Even the data is not clear.

.

[Ray B]

Nice try by one reporter asking the chancellor the details of the emergency budget to come, akin to asking a gambler to show his hand.

[david63]

Nice try by one reporter asking the chancellor the details of the emergency budget to come, akin to asking a gambler to show his hand.

One thing that you can be sure of is that it is going to be painful for the majority - somebody will have to pay for all of this borrowing. And you can bet your bottom dollar that Labour will oppose it, calling it more austerity.

[Quizzical Bob]

A thought on the numbers game. We all realise the death toll is higher than the published numbers. As is the number of people infected because minor symptoms simply don't get reported to the authorities. The only accurate figure is probably the number of people in intensive care. But what matters is they are consistent in the way they report it as it is the trend that will tell us when we are beginning to beat this thing.

The number of infections and the number of deaths are much higher than the official figures. They are only testing those who go to hospital, unless you are Prince Charles or a politician, and they are only sending anyone to hospital if they are extremely serious and if there is any room for them.

Effectively the intensive care beds are being continuously kept topped up within their capacity. Without widespread testing we have no way of monitoring the progress of this epidemic. This goes against all established methods of disease prevention and control.

Lockdown should have started to or three weeks earlier and as for allowing Cheltenham to go ahead words fail me.

Not to mention these Stereophonics concertsm

Fri 28 Feb – Sheffield Flydsa Arena
Sat 29 Feb – Birmingham Arena
Mon 2 March – Brighton Centre
Tues 3 March – Bournemouth Intl Centre
Fri 6 March – London The O2
Sat 7 March Nottingham – Motorpoint Arena
Mon 9 March – Newcastle Utilita Arena
Tues 10 March – Aberdeen P&J Live Arena
Wed 11 March – Glasgow The SSE Hydro
Fri 13 March – Manchester Arena
Sat 14 March – Cardiff Motorpoint Arena
Sun 15 March – Cardiff Motorpoint Arena

QB, the range of differences across infected countries is massive, no one seems to know, YET, which is the best way to tackle this epidemic, so unless you are an undiscovered genius, I don't think I will subscribe to your views that our govt dont know what they are doing just yet.

If we wait to find out the best response then we shall be criminally late.

There’s quite a thorough summary here:
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/a-na ... us-crisis/

[barney]

Does that figure include those who died of CV19 as opposed to those who died with CV19? Listening to a medic today on the radio he was saying that many of those who have died in care homes would have sadly died this year anyway. CV19 may merely speed their demise. It depends how the doctor records the reason for death whether it is included in returns for CV19 purposes. Even the data is not clear.

.

We were thinking the same OBF.
Everyone in a care home is in there because they are poorly.
If they were 100% fit, they would not be in there.
MiL is in a dementia care home in Exeter.
She’s pretty fragile as are nearly all residents.
Should Covid 19 hit, their demise would be accelerated, but in reality, they are all on their last legs.

[towny44]

If we wait to find out the best response then we shall be criminally late.

There’s quite a thorough summary here:
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/a-na ... us-crisis/

QB, which part of "we are following the guidance given by the scientific experts" are you not following? Maybe you prefer some other methods, perhaps a crystal ball, or Tarot cards or maybe we should organise a seance.
We all know you hate Boris and the Tories, but they have taken decisive action on providing financial assistance, and they are following the guidance from SAGE, if you prefer an alternative method then please let us have your recommendations and the experts who you have selected to provide your guidance.