Current Affairs

[Onelife]

If that’s where Cumbria Council position their traffic signs you’ll have more people dying from RTA's than Covid 19…just saying

[Gill W]

Apparently 2019 winter was also much higher than average for deaths, so a straight comparison of April 2020 with April 2019 would show a much lower level of excess deaths. The Beeb stated 2019 was high but did not elaborate on the effect it would have on the apparent 50,000 higher deaths than the mean average, presumably they prefer to choose the higher level to make their case for the seriousness of the situation.

Look at ONS link, the spike in deaths from April is easy to see.

What’s happening is unprecedented.

But that is against the average Gill, the yearly figure fluctuate quite a bit, and apparently 2019 was also a very high year, so not that unprecedented.

2019 was low, and 2020 was heading the same way, until the end of March.

Just one glance at this chart says that what is happening is not normal

[Mervyn and Trish]

No-one is saying it's normal Gill. What rankles with me is amateurs manipulating and interpreting the numbers, particularly the international comparisons, which all statisticians agree are not robust at this stage, because there is no international standard and because there are so many complicating factors, to back their own narrow political view.

One factor is very clear and important and oft repeated, though the hacks don't want to hear it, even when they're reporting it. Population density. The critical thing in all of this, the experts tell us, is the R number. That is the whole point of social distancing, to reduce that. And when you have a lower population density that is on your side to start with. The New Zealand government, for example, have done particularly well because their population is so sparse they are socially distant on a normal day! France has twice the area of the UK so with exactly the same measures in place their R number would be lower than ours. And even within the UK we see big differences in the big cities and in the close confines of care homes. If we all lived in the middle of an acre each and didn't go out for a month the virus would be gone.

[Manoverboard]

South Korea is hardly low density I would have thought but they seem to have dealt with it better than most.

Watch Chan 4 @ 21:00 this very evening for further detail

[towny44]

South Korea is hardly low density I would have thought but they seem to have dealt with it better than most.

Watch Chan 4 @ 21:00 this very evening for further detail

Channel 4 has never given a well balanced news item in its life Moby so I imagine tonight's will be no different.

[Gill W]

No-one is saying it's normal Gill. What rankles with me is amateurs manipulating and interpreting the numbers, particularly the international comparisons, which all statisticians agree are not robust at this stage, because there is no international standard and because there are so many complicating factors, to back their own narrow political view.

One factor is very clear and important and oft repeated, though the hacks don't want to hear it, even when they're reporting it. Population density. The critical thing in all of this, the experts tell us, is the R number. That is the whole point of social distancing, to reduce that. And when you have a lower population density that is on your side to start with. The New Zealand government, for example, have done particularly well because their population is so sparse they are socially distant on a normal day! France has twice the area of the UK so with exactly the same measures in place their R number would be lower than ours. And even within the UK we see big differences in the big cities and in the close confines of care homes. If we all lived in the middle of an acre each and didn't go out for a month the virus would be gone.

This is precisely why I don't solely rely on the media to gather my information. I go straight to the horse's mouth, as it were, and get the data from the ONS. I also check to see what my friendly actuary and his colleagues are saying, to help me interpret it.

The FT are helpful with the figures that they give - the coronavirus pages are free to view. If you are interested in international figures, this chart gives a comparison, to get an idea of how other countries are doing

From what I've seen, the countries that haven been most successful in controlling the virus are the ones who locked down hard and early. New Zealand is a good example of this. Greece is another one, and they have densely populated Athens, so I don't think its entirely about population density.

I think South Korea have done well, because they have a rigorous track and trace system.

[Manoverboard]

South Korea is hardly low density I would have thought but they seem to have dealt with it better than most.

Watch Chan 4 @ 21:00 this very evening for further detail

Channel 4 has never given a well balanced news item in its life Moby so I imagine tonight's will be no different.

After I've watched it I will be in a far better position to comment

[oldbluefox]

There are so many variables that any attempt to use statistics becomes more and more complicated and relies on consistency in the statistics you are using. Just as an example let's look at populations and population density (figures supplied by Alexa):
South Korea 51 million 519/sq km
UK 64.8 million 269/sq km
Germany 80.6 million 234/sq km
Italy 62 million 206/sq km
France 67.1 million 121/sq km
Spain 49 million 93/sq km
Greece 10.8 million 84/sq km
New Zealand 4.5 million 17.5/sq km
Australia 23.2 million 3.1/sq km

So what are the variables?
What is included in the Covid19 figures - care homes, hospitals, home deaths?
People dying of Covid19 or those dying of pre-existing conditions and/or where Covid 19 is present?
Strength of lockdown - how strict was the lockdown and how strictly were they enforced?
Adherence to lockdown - how closely have the populations followed the limitations of lockdown?

To my mind it is too simplistic to use raw data to come to any conclusions since there are so many variables in the populations, cultures and politics of different countries.The number of deaths is upsetting but we should bear in mind just how deadly is this virus and, until a few months ago we knew nothing about it. It is easy to criticise the government but somehow I feel they are damned whatever they do and damned whatever they don't do. We should just be thankful it's not Corbyn and Ashworth dealing with it.

[Stephen]

I see social distancing is out the window with cyclists on-route to work.

[oldbluefox]

As I see it lockdown and social distancing in this country is a joke. I am not surprised that we have so many deaths and hospital admissions as we do. Easy to blame the government but we have to take responsibility for ourselves.

[Ray Scully]

As I see it lockdown and social distancing in this country is a joke. I am not surprised that we have so many deaths and hospital admissions as we do. Easy to blame the government but we have to take responsibility for ourselves.

OBF suprised to see the high figures for Cumbria today, particularly Barrow. Any ideas as to why? I wouldn't have expected it. We have been very careful since well before the lockdown, a good job as Maureen was put into the shielded group. The upsetting thing is the idiots going out and about, then coming into contact with unsuspected friends and family.

[Onelife]

As I see it lockdown and social distancing in this country is a joke. I am not surprised that we have so many deaths and hospital admissions as we do. Easy to blame the government but we have to take responsibility for ourselves.

Foxy…. if people won’t take the responsibility by following the rules then the Government should change the rules.With two weeks of fine weather predicted may I suggest they should think about doing it sooner rather than latter.

[barney]

The rules have gone out of the window down here today.
Hundreds walking dogs on Instow beach.
He had need to go to the shop in Torrington and it seemed like a normal day.
Although we were not open, a regular tried to chat through the window so I opened the door and stood back. Within a minute another lady joined her. When I mentioned social distancing she said, oh, we’re not bothered about that. If I’m going to get it, I’m going to get it.
Amazing!!

[Onelife]

The rules have gone out of the window down here today.
Hundreds walking dogs on Instow beach.
He had need to go to the shop in Torrington and it seemed like a normal day.
Although we were not open, a regular tried to chat through the window so I opened the door and stood back. Within a minute another lady joined her. When I mentioned social distancing she said, oh, we’re not bothered about that. If I’m going to get it, I’m going to get it.
Amazing!!

Stupid cow!!

You’re far to polite Barney

[Gill W]

I’ve been out for my government sanctioned daily exercise unit since this started, but I now want to go out less, as some people are acting like it’s all over.

[Kenmo1]

I’ve been out for my government sanctioned daily exercise unit since this started, but I now want to go out less, as some people are acting like it’s all over.

That's just how I feel, Gill. To make matters worse, I have just spotted on the front of the County Press that there are supposed to be mass gatherings for idiots on Appley Beach near Ryde and Seaclose Park in Newport at the weekend. I'm sure we have more than enough idiots on the IOW who will attend although it does say the police are aware. I hope that it is eventually found to be a rather stupid joke. Surely people can't be that utterly stupid, can they ?

Maureen

[Jan Rosser]

My son has been going out for a short bike ride during lockdown on his own but today it was very busy - groups on bikes, more cars and groups of walkers - my DIL made a joke about meeting me in a park to which my son replied that I wasn't allowed because I'm in Wales and I'm over 70 - cheeky devil I'm too nervous to travel anyway although I have ordered a tin of paint from B&Q click and collect - I'm not going in the store and I'm a bit apprehensive about it to be honest.

[Onelife]

I’ve been out for my government sanctioned daily exercise unit since this started, but I now want to go out less, as some people are acting like it’s all over.

That's just how I feel, Gill. To make matters worse, I have just spotted on the front of the County Press that there are supposed to be mass gatherings for idiots on Appley Beach near Ryde and Seaclose Park in Newport at the weekend. I'm sure we have more than enough idiots on the IOW who will attend although it does say the police are aware. I hope that it is eventually found to be a rather stupid joke. Surely people can't be that utterly stupid, can they ?

Maureen

Hi Maureen,

I refer you to Barney’s post…..

“ I mentioned social distancing she said, oh, we’re not bothered about that. If I’m going to get it, I’m going to get it.”

[Onelife]

I know this is very unlikely ever to happen but as we head into a significant recession with the likelihood of moving towards a long depression could any of you envisage a time where OAPensions are mean tested based on personal savings?

[Whynd1]

I had to go out today into the village and there was a lot more traffic than the last time I went two weeks ago.

Have to go out again tomorrow to take my father some food and expect to see more traffic again, dad got very confused he couldn't work out why he was unable to get through to the little shop on the complex , its shut off to the residents for now.
We had the engineer to the washer dryer yesterday he said it was fixed and it's not so he has to come back tomorrow.
That will be two days of wiping down every surface he has touched.
Rough week for us with the lockdown with the dog having to see the vet and he has to go back in a few days. After 7 weeks of managing with the lockdown it's all go to pot this week and none of it's our fault.

Am I fed up ,you bet.

[Onelife]

I know this is very unlikely ever to happen but as we head into a significant recession with the likelihood of moving towards a long depression could any of you envisage a time where OAPensions are mean tested based on personal savings?

I’ve just looked this up so I’m now removing the…?.... and replacing it with Maybe!

[Onelife]

I had to go out today into the village and there was a lot more traffic than the last time I went two weeks ago.

Have to go out again tomorrow to take my father some food and expect to see more traffic again, dad got very confused he couldn't work out why he was unable to get through to the little shop on the complex , its shut off to the residents for now.
We had the engineer to the washer dryer yesterday he said it was fixed and it's not so he has to come back tomorrow.
That will be two days of wiping down every surface he has touched.
Rough week for us with the lockdown with the dog having to see the vet and he has to go back in a few days. After 7 weeks of managing with the lockdown it's all go to pot this week and none of it's our fault.

Am I fed up ,you bet.

Hello Whynd
Hopefully this will help cheer you up…enjoy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uahlf4fo3iQ

[Onelife]

P.s …the lyrics are for whoever you want them for

[Manoverboard]

South Korea is hardly low density I would have thought but they seem to have dealt with it better than most.

Watch Chan 4 @ 21:00 this very evening for further detail

Channel 4 has never given a well balanced news item in its life Moby so I imagine tonight's will be no different.

I watched it and thought ' Crikey-ish ' it's all oh so different to what's happening here in the UK. Mass testing and tracking down those who could have come into contact with somebody who has tested positive. Most Asian Countries are of course more receptive and together than those of us in the West. The Korean approach demands compliance re having the tests and being subjected to GPS tracking via their phones, also Government monitoring of their Card transactions plus CCTV surveillance 24/7. A tad Big Brother but very effective I thought, I also thought that we would spend so much time arguing about human rights it would never have got off the ground other than in a very watered down version.

ps ... I found it to be informative and with balance

[towny44]

South Korea is hardly low density I would have thought but they seem to have dealt with it better than most.

Watch Chan 4 @ 21:00 this very evening for further detail

Channel 4 has never given a well balanced news item in its life Moby so I imagine tonight's will be no different.

I watched it and thought ' Crikey-ish ' it's all oh so different to what's happening here in the UK. Mass testing and tracking down those who could have come into contact with somebody who has tested positive. Most Asian Countries are of course more receptive and together than those of us in the West. The Korean approach demands compliance re having the tests and being subjected to GPS tracking via their phones, also Government monitoring of their Card transactions plus CCTV surveillance 24/7. A tad Big Brother but very effective I thought, I also thought that we would spend so much time arguing about human rights it would never have got off the ground other than in a very watered down version.

ps ... I found it to be informative and with balance

But unless you're Korean how on earth do you know it's accurate?
Of course if it were fully adopted in the UK then Channel 4 would be the first to air a report on how our civil rights were being ignored by the govt.