Current Affairs

[Manoverboard]

But unless you're Korean how on earth do you know it's accurate?

I am obviously less of a Doubting Thomas / cynic than your good self given that I am happy to accept the test ‘n’ tracking methodology at face value. If the South Koreans are unhappy about it then there will be riots in the streets but nothing has been reported thus far.

[Frank Manning]

OBF is right. There are so many factors involved in the transmission of the virus that it is of very little use to compare different countries and cultures. People are dying, we need to concentrate on what we can do about that, rather than being too wise too soon and playing the blame game. We all have a responsibility, and that means social distancing, washing hands etc., and not having mass gatherings whether on Appley beach or on the trains or wherever.

[towny44]

But unless you're Korean how on earth do you know it's accurate?

I am obviously less of a Doubting Thomas / cynic than your good self given that I am happy to accept the test ‘n’ tracking methodology at face value. If the South Koreans are unhappy about it then there will be riots in the streets but nothing has been reported thus far.

It's interesting to note the comments about an upturn in cases in Wuhan province in China. Here they have 6 (that's six) new cases and are applying huge resources to track and trace all contacts of these 6. They are also intending to test all 10 million in the province.
Even if we had the resources in the UK I doubt we could organise anything like that sort of response to any new flare up.

[Whynd1]

Many thanks onelife !!!

[Mervyn and Trish]

I watched it and thought ' Crikey-ish ' it's all oh so different to what's happening here in the UK. Mass testing and tracking down those who could have come into contact with somebody who has tested positive. Most Asian Countries are of course more receptive and together than those of us in the West. The Korean approach demands compliance re having the tests and being subjected to GPS tracking via their phones, also Government monitoring of their Card transactions plus CCTV surveillance 24/7. A tad Big Brother but very effective I thought, I also thought that we would spend so much time arguing about human rights it would never have got off the ground other than in a very watered down version.

Can you imagine if they did that here? It's been bad enough with people whinging about infringement of their civil liberties after being told to stay home if possible to save their life!

[Midlandslass]

There are so many variables that any attempt to use statistics becomes more and more complicated and relies on consistency in the statistics you are using. Just as an example let's look at populations and population density (figures supplied by Alexa):
South Korea 51 million 519/sq km
UK 64.8 million 269/sq km
Germany 80.6 million 234/sq km
Italy 62 million 206/sq km
France 67.1 million 121/sq km
Spain 49 million 93/sq km
Greece 10.8 million 84/sq km
New Zealand 4.5 million 17.5/sq km
Australia 23.2 million 3.1/sq km

So what are the variables?
What is included in the Covid19 figures - care homes, hospitals, home deaths?
People dying of Covid19 or those dying of pre-existing conditions and/or where Covid 19 is present?
Strength of lockdown - how strict was the lockdown and how strictly were they enforced?
Adherence to lockdown - how closely have the populations followed the limitations of lockdown?

To my mind it is too simplistic to use raw data to come to any conclusions since there are so many variables in the populations, cultures and politics of different countries.The number of deaths is upsetting but we should bear in mind just how deadly is this virus and, until a few months ago we knew nothing about it. It is easy to criticise the government but somehow I feel they are damned whatever they do and damned whatever they don't do. We should just be thankful it's not Corbyn and Ashworth dealing with it.

Unfortunately even statistics such as population density of UK don’t really help, you need to look at population density in urban areas.

[Mervyn and Trish]

OBF is right. There are so many factors involved in the transmission of the virus that it is of very little use to compare different countries and cultures. People are dying, we need to concentrate on what we can do about that, rather than being too wise too soon and playing the blame game. We all have a responsibility, and that means social distancing, washing hands etc., and not having mass gatherings whether on Appley beach or on the trains or wherever.

I read a very interesting paper last night comparing mortality in different countries written by actual experts. Medical researchers and medical statisticians rather than amateurs, bloggers, keyboard warriors, journalists or those with a qualification in a different field which makes them believe they are experts in everything.

There were two headline conclusions. The first is there are so many differences between the ways deaths recorded and attributed to Covid or not, the settings included, the timescales of reporting etc. that any meaningful comparison of numbers is totally impossible now, will be for a long time, and may never be. Even across the EU there is no common standard.

The second was that even if we could be certain of the numbers there are so many differences in population, population density, ethnicity, gender balance, age, culture, obesity and other health variables, levels of tourism bringing it in, approach to tackling it, government competence, compliance of the population, and many more that again we cannot yet and may never be able to judge which were the significant factors in mortality across the world.

[david63]

I suspect that probably the best comparison that we will ever get is that of comparing the annual death toll this year against the average of the last x years and taking that a percentage.

I would like to think that most, if not all, of the first world countries do have a reasonably robust system for the recording of deaths, although there may well be many "illegals" that do not get recorded.

[Manoverboard]

Can you imagine if they did that here? It's been bad enough with people whinging about infringement of their civil liberties after being told to stay home if possible to save their life!

In a word .... " No ".

[towny44]

Can you imagine if they did that here? It's been bad enough with people whinging about infringement of their civil liberties after being told to stay home if possible to save their life!

In a word .... " No ".

But you can guarantee the ones who are complaining about how ineffective the govt action has been would be the first to complain about their infringed civil liberties.

[Manoverboard]

Can you imagine if they did that here? It's been bad enough with people whinging about infringement of their civil liberties after being told to stay home if possible to save their life!

In a word .... " No ".

But you can guarantee the ones who are complaining about how ineffective the govt action has been would be the first to complain about their infringed civil liberties.

... and there we do agree

[Gill W]

That contact tracing app being tested on the IoW is part of the UK track and trace plans

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/ ... avirus-uk/

The article says 'The UK is planning to use trained teams to find people who have coronavirus symptoms, working with the Army to make thousands of calls a day to track the spread of Covid-19, all of which will be complemented by the contact-tracing app.'

However, it's not clear where these trained people are coming from and when the track and tracing will start. Bearing in mind today's figure for people who tested positive is 3446, it is a massive task. Plus, now that lock down has eased and people have started to go back to work, there's a risk that cases will increase again.

Track and trace was very effective for S Korea as they did it right from the start. Unfortunately, for us, it's like locking the stable door after the horse has bolted.

[Stephen]

As I see it lockdown and social distancing in this country is a joke. I am not surprised that we have so many deaths and hospital admissions as we do. Easy to blame the government but we have to take responsibility for ourselves.

The problem with rules is they're only as good as the people supposed to be enforcing them.

[towny44]

It is reported that A&E admissions have halved during the covid crisis, are we really to believe that these might have been emergencies that have slipped through the net, or is it more likely that most of these probably did not warrant an urgent visit to the ER.
Is it possible that the NHS will learn from this and implement a more rigorous triage system that will ensure that in the future our ERs deal only with genuine serious accidents and emergencies?

[Ray B]

Exactly towny, A & E reporting 50% fall in attendance, which to me say, most of the missing 50% should not have been there in the first place.

[david63]

Exactly towny, A & E reporting 50% fall in attendance, which to me say, most of the missing 50% should not have been there in the first place.

Although there is some anecdotal reports that people with serious conditions such as heart attacks and strokes have not been to A&E when they needed to.

[towny44]

Exactly towny, A & E reporting 50% fall in attendance, which to me say, most of the missing 50% should not have been there in the first place.

Although there is some anecdotal reports that people with serious conditions such as heart attacks and strokes have not been to A&E when they needed to.

But will these anecdotes cover anything but a tiny number of the 50% reduction?

[Onelife]

That contact tracing app being tested on the IoW is part of the UK track and trace plans

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/ ... avirus-uk/

The article says 'The UK is planning to use trained teams to find people who have coronavirus symptoms, working with the Army to make thousands of calls a day to track the spread of Covid-19, all of which will be complemented by the contact-tracing app.'

However, it's not clear where these trained people are coming from and when the track and tracing will start. Bearing in mind today's figure for people who tested positive is 3446, it is a massive task. Plus, now that lock down has eased and people have started to go back to work, there's a risk that cases will increase again.

Track and trace was very effective for S Korea as they did it right from the start. Unfortunately, for us, it's like locking the stable door after the horse has bolted.

If this track and trace app was to have any chance of having a good uptake then it needed to be introduced before sending people back to work.

Someone telling back to work, workers that they’ve been within a few metres of someone with covid and then expect them to down tools and isolate until such time that they can be tested... will imo be largely ignored…unless enforced.

[Onelife]

Luke Johnson (Tonight's Question Time) has to be the most ill-informed panalist ever. His self interest rants had no bounds and proved why we should boycott any of his businesses.

Unbelievable!!!

[Kendhni]

It is reported that A&E admissions have halved during the covid crisis, are we really to believe that these might have been emergencies that have slipped through the net, or is it more likely that most of these probably did not warrant an urgent visit to the ER.
Is it possible that the NHS will learn from this and implement a more rigorous triage system that will ensure that in the future our ERs deal only with genuine serious accidents and emergencies?

Stories like this don't help but explain the abuse of A&E services
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/every-patient ... 00651.html

[Mervyn and Trish]

Yes spot on Ken. A significant percentage of pre Covid A&E attendances were alcohol related. I'm sure that explains a large part of the current deduction.

[Manoverboard]

Exactly towny, A & E reporting 50% fall in attendance, which to me say, most of the missing 50% should not have been there in the first place.

The missing 50% are surely down to the reduction in traffic / people / sporting accidents plus gang warfare and Saturday night punch ups etc. If everybody stops indoors and are too scared to go anywhere near their surgery let alone a Hospital the figures are bound to drop ... I would have thought ?

[Onelife]

It is reported that A&E admissions have halved during the covid crisis, are we really to believe that these might have been emergencies that have slipped through the net, or is it more likely that most of these probably did not warrant an urgent visit to the ER.
Is it possible that the NHS will learn from this and implement a more rigorous triage system that will ensure that in the future our ERs deal only with genuine serious accidents and emergencies?

Stories like this don't help but explain the abuse of A&E services
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/every-patient ... 00651.html

Two years ago my wife had the misfortune to break her leg in three places. On arrival at the hospital she joined a queue of about six trolleys two of which were occupied by two drunk girls.....thankfully they allowed my wife to jump the queue.

[Onelife]

Exactly towny, A & E reporting 50% fall in attendance, which to me say, most of the missing 50% should not have been there in the first place.

The missing 50% are surely down to the reduction in traffic / people / sporting accidents plus gang warfare and Saturday night punch ups etc. If everybody stops indoors and are too scared to go anywhere near their surgery let alone a Hospital the figures are bound to drop ... I would have thought ?

To be sure

[screwy]

Our daughter worked in A&E for 8 yrs, it has to be said that she absolutely loved the work there but hated the fact that it was generally full of drunk/ drug related patients,especially at night and weekends.