Current Affairs

[screwy]

Don’t ask Stephen. He went to Imperial..

[Manoverboard]

Just being my usual conciliatory self. Though I am poised awaitng the brickbats.

Whatever that is

They are bats that throw bricks ... for goodness sakes

[Stephen]

Sounds just the sort of rubbish you'd know out in the back woods

[Manoverboard]

Sounds just the sort of rubbish you'd know out in the back woods

[Stephen]

Don’t ask Stephen. He went to Imperial..

and Whitworth

[Mervyn and Trish]

I did see some complete cobblers from one expert this week that rather proves my point in post 4796 above.

He said the way out of this was to test everyone in the country every week, isolating those testing positive and their contacts, until it was gone.

A good plan. Except it requires 66 million tests per week and the capacity to examine them. That's 330 times our current capacity, It's more than half the total cumulative number of tests in the whole world since this began. So great idea but cloud cuckoo land.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Don’t ask Stephen. He went to Imperial..

Hang on a bit. I went to Imperial!

[Stephen]

106294121_2650786898575951_1389029372295285688_n.jpg

[Stephen]

Don’t ask Stephen. He went to Imperial..

Hang on a bit. I went to Imperial!

Is that the hospital just round the corner from you

[Onelife]

Hi Sir Merv…when I read some of your posts it reminds me of all the times I pissed around at school and now wish I hadn’t. To write as you have done in this thought-provoking submission is a testament to all the things I should have done but didn’t….9 out of 10 for effort Sir.

Whilst it could be argued that I haven’t been overly impressed with some of the decision making that I have witnessed, I do however acknowledge that this Governments administration was new into post and for that reason it is understandable that they have made a few cock ups along the way….oh yes they have!

We can’t turn the clock back but I do now wonder if our original game plan would have been the better one “herd immunity while shielding the most vulnerable”? There was speculation at the time that this was Cummings preferred option but as it turns out this wasn’t a viable option “then” as we didn’t have a clear picture as to how vulnerable the old foggies were going to be or have a system in place to look after then …looking back, and looking where we are about to go now I think this probably is the right option for our country’s younger less susceptible workforce.

Keep wearing those masks and gloves.

[Jonty S1]

Meanwhile the beginnings of an answer to some of my pondering has been published. The death rate of those admitted to hospital from April until June has reduced from 6% to 1.5%. This compounds concerns regarding relaxation of quarantine (lockdown) rules.

[Mervyn and Trish]

I'm not sure why. Surely that means more of those admitted don't die, suggesting understanding and treatment is approving? That was the commentary I saw. Or have I missed something?

[anniec]

I'm not sure why. Surely that means more of those admitted don't die, suggesting understanding and treatment is approving? That was the commentary I saw. Or have I missed something?

Ditto - that was my understanding and what I was hoping.

[Onelife]

Meanwhile the beginnings of an answer to some of my pondering has been published. The death rate of those admitted to hospital from April until June has reduced from 6% to 1.5%. This compounds concerns regarding relaxation of quarantine (lockdown) rules.

Perhaps I'm being a bit daft but I can't follow what you are saying

[Jonty S1]

Social distancing has achieved this. Relax it, as has been witnessed by the idiotic behaviour of recent days, and boom here we go again.

[Onelife]

Thanks jonty..

l suppose its come to a point of which is the better of two evils.....saving the economy in the hope that we play by the rules or playing Russian Roulette.in the hope that it won't have our names on the bullet.

[towny44]

Social distancing has achieved this. Relax it, as has been witnessed by the idiotic behaviour of recent days, and boom here we go again.

Social distancing only impacts on the transmission of the disease, it has no bearing on the percentage of those that die from it while in hospital. That will have come about either by improvements in treatment, or possibly by the virus itself losing some of its potency, although most scientists seem to think that latter view is unlikely.

[Onelife]

Social distancing has achieved this. Relax it, as has been witnessed by the idiotic behaviour of recent days, and boom here we go again.

Social distancing only impacts on the transmission of the disease, it has no bearing on the percentage of those that die from it while in hospital. That will have come about either by improvements in treatment, or possibly by the virus itself losing some of its potency, although most scientists seem to think that latter view is unlikely.

With respect John it does, I believe, have a bearing on the percentage of those who die because social distancing impacts on how many will eventually end up in hospital. Depending on how many get admitted will impact on the workload and under certain circumstances the workload decisions priorities who has the best chance of recovery.

[screwy]

The decisions being taken by Hospital staff are horrible. I was talking to a lady whose daughter works in a large midlands hospital, she said it was decisions having to be taken as to who lived and who they let go , that was the most heartbreaking. I’m glad I don’t have to make those decisions.

[Jonty S1]

My take on the social distancing is that, those who have practiced it get a lower dose of the virus, hence the improvement ( reduction ) in the mortality percentage rate.
Personally, despite between relatively high risk, am continuing a fairly new normal life, whilst maintaining distance and regular hand wash or sanitiser.

[towny44]

Social distancing has achieved this. Relax it, as has been witnessed by the idiotic behaviour of recent days, and boom here we go again.

Social distancing only impacts on the transmission of the disease, it has no bearing on the percentage of those that die from it while in hospital. That will have come about either by improvements in treatment, or possibly by the virus itself losing some of its potency, although most scientists seem to think that latter view is unlikely.

With respect John it does, I believe, have a bearing on the percentage of those who die because social distancing impacts on how many will eventually end up in hospital. Depending on how many get admitted will impact on the workload and under certain circumstances the workload decisions priorities who has the best chance of recovery.

Keith, with respect we are talking about the percentage who die not the absolute number. However I do concede that an increase in numbers with the disease will very possibly lead to an increase in the number of deaths, but it won't increase the percentage who die.

[barney]

Local infections rate was published this week and Torridge district had no infections recorded at all.
Torridge is a large area but sparsely populated.

[Gill W]

Social distancing only impacts on the transmission of the disease, it has no bearing on the percentage of those that die from it while in hospital. That will have come about either by improvements in treatment, or possibly by the virus itself losing some of its potency, although most scientists seem to think that latter view is unlikely.

With respect John it does, I believe, have a bearing on the percentage of those who die because social distancing impacts on how many will eventually end up in hospital. Depending on how many get admitted will impact on the workload and under certain circumstances the workload decisions priorities who has the best chance of recovery.

Keith, with respect we are talking about the percentage who die not the absolute number. However I do concede that an increase in numbers with the disease will very possibly lead to an increase in the number of deaths, but it won't increase the percentage who die.

I think that what Keith and Jonty are saying is that, when there are fewer COVID19 patients in hospital, the doctors and nurses can spend more time on individual care, so the percentage of the patients that die will be less.

When patient numbers rise, the staff are much more stretched, and although they do everything humanly possible to care for their patients, they inevitably can’t give the same level of individual care, so the percentage of their patients that unfortunately die will be that much higher.

[Jonty S1]

Gill is right to a degree however, and please bear in mind I’m no scientist, that due to social distancing, some of those catching the virus more recently are less severely sick due to ingesting a smaller dose.
Jon

[Onelife]

With respect John it does, I believe, have a bearing on the percentage of those who die because social distancing impacts on how many will eventually end up in hospital. Depending on how many get admitted will impact on the workload and under certain circumstances the workload decisions priorities who has the best chance of recovery.

Keith, with respect we are talking about the percentage who die not the absolute number. However I do concede that an increase in numbers with the disease will very possibly lead to an increase in the number of deaths, but it won't increase the percentage who die.

I think that what Keith and Jonty are saying is that, when there are fewer COVID19 patients in hospital, the doctors and nurses can spend more time on individual care, so the percentage of the patients that die will be less.

When patient numbers rise, the staff are much more stretched, and although they do everything humanly possible to care for their patients, they inevitably can’t give the same level of individual care, so the percentage of their patients that unfortunately die will be that much higher.

Yes! Gill… That was exactly my thinking…. and on that note I’ve always been of the opinion that percentages can disguise the true figures if it suits a purpose