Current Affairs

[Mervyn and Trish]

From the Gov.uk website:

"The Secretary of State has today, 17 July, asked PHE to urgently review their estimation of daily death statistics. Currently the daily deaths measure counts all people who have tested positive for coronavirus and since died, with no cut-off between time of testing and date of death. There have been claims that the lack of cut-off may distort the current daily deaths number. We are therefore pausing the publication of the daily figure while this is resolved."

[barney]

It would be interesting to find out the actual level of adherence to the "guidelines". The media coverage and what we see in the streets seems to be lots of people breaking the rules - we don't see the numbers of people keeping to the rules (and by the comments on this forum even exceeding this).
In my own circle of friends lockdown is being lifted much more slowly than the governments guidance)

Very valid points, but whilst crowded beaches in the summer sun make good headlines in the press, pictures of rows of houses with everyone observing the lockdown would be far too boring. However despite the apparent large numbers breaking social distancing there are 66 million of us on these tiny Islands, and the vast majority of them where behaving far more sensibly.

We popped over to Appledore last early evening for fish and chips and it was very busy.
Mainly second home owners and people staying in holiday lets.
Lots of northern and London accents.
Not a mask in sight.
The Royal, with good outside space was also packed.

[Manoverboard]

Round here it is still much quieter than normal. Shops are cafes etc are re-opening but far fewer people than usual. Plenty of space on car parks. It makes me wonder if a lot of the normal "shoppers" are browsing rather than buying. And certainly for us at the moment it's in, grab what we need and out as fast as possible.

We have shopped online only, albeit plus a weekly local delivery from the pub and the farm shop.

Virtually all food but also one contingency purchase on e-Bay for a couple of brand new ( one size larger ) M&S Blue Harbour short sleeve shirts . For the first time this year we will see and share lunch with No 1 son in our garden today and on Monday we journey to Waitrose to pick up our very first ‘ Click ‘n’ Collect ‘ order.

If anything we have probably been too sensible but hey-ho we're still alive and kicking in spite of being vulnerable, all the golden oldies in our village seem to be doing exactly the same things as us.

[screwy]

Lucky you to be able to sit in the garden today.! It’s bucketing down up here. Me thinks our summer was April &May.

[screwy]

On a brighter note, The plastering is all done..

[screwy]

E-mail from Insure & Go, COVID restrictions now lifted for bookings made after 13 March on present policy.

[anniec]

The research I saw said the growth rate was affected. At a median temperature of 6C (London) it is predicted to be 3.7 over 4 days, at 9C (Milan) it is 2.4 and at 11C (Madrid) it is 1.6.

I saw that, or similar, research. It also cited the current Melbourne outbreak (in their winter) as an example.

They mean business in Australia. A relation lives one of the lock down areas and has daily hospital appointments in a nearby town at the moment. She was stopped by the police yesterday and asked for proof of where she was going.

[Manoverboard]

Lucky you to be able to sit in the garden today.! It’s bucketing down up here. Me thinks our summer was April &May.

No rain and none forecast but if it did .... no problem Mobietta and I would pop indoors until it had passed

[Happydays]

E-mail from Insure & Go, COVID restrictions now lifted for bookings made after 13 March on present policy.

We got the same email yesterday. Pity we're not going anywhere at the moment apart from a holiday cottage in September (hopefully)

[Stephen]

E-mail from Insure & Go, COVID restrictions now lifted for bookings made after 13 March on present policy.

We got the same email yesterday. Pity we're not going anywhere at the moment apart from a holiday cottage in September (hopefully)

And us, although we were covered just before the deadline date anyway, not that it really matters as the policy won't be needed this year unless we have to cancel our Devon trip in September

[Quizzical Bob]

On a brighter note, The plastering is all done..

Glad to know that you are well and truly plastered

[Gill W]

It would be interesting to find out the actual level of adherence to the "guidelines". The media coverage and what we see in the streets seems to be lots of people breaking the rules - we don't see the numbers of people keeping to the rules (and by the comments on this forum even exceeding this).
In my own circle of friends lockdown is being lifted much more slowly than the governments guidance)

I've found that when I go out people are generally adhering to the guidelines, but I've only been to places where I know it's going to be quiet.

From speaking to friends, I think people are slowly coming out of lockdown and doing some carefully planned activities, but I don't think many are going out as much as the government would like!

In the coming week, we may try lunch in a pub garden. It should be quiet on a Monday or Tuesday.

Then on Thursday, we may venture further afield. Back in January we booked a coach trip to Rye and Hastings. The coach company has restarted its operations - we are assured that there is room for social distancing on the coach, masks must be worn on the coach, there will be sanitiser everywhere, not to mention the coach will be subject to disinfectant fogging. it looks like the weather is going to be nice, so when we get there, we will spend a lot of time in the open air. We haven't decided for sure yet, but we are leaning towards going on the trip.

[Gill W]

From the Gov.uk website:

"The Secretary of State has today, 17 July, asked PHE to urgently review their estimation of daily death statistics. Currently the daily deaths measure counts all people who have tested positive for coronavirus and since died, with no cut-off between time of testing and date of death. There have been claims that the lack of cut-off may distort the current daily deaths number. We are therefore pausing the publication of the daily figure while this is resolved."

I hope they don't suspend providing this information for too long, as I don't want to have to start suspecting that they are supressing info on purpose!

Some people already think this is over, if there's no information about death figures, people could easily get even more complacent.

Which reminds me - Johnson said something about it being over by Christmas? I'll stick with what Chris Whitty says, that precautions will be needed for a long time to come.

[Onelife]

From the Gov.uk website:

"The Secretary of State has today, 17 July, asked PHE to urgently review their estimation of daily death statistics. Currently the daily deaths measure counts all people who have tested positive for coronavirus and since died, with no cut-off between time of testing and date of death. There have been claims that the lack of cut-off may distort the current daily deaths number. We are therefore pausing the publication of the daily figure while this is resolved."

I hope they don't suspend providing this information for too long, as I don't want to have to start suspecting that they are supressing info on purpose!

Some people already think this is over, if there's no information about death figures, people could easily get even more complacent.

Which reminds me - Johnson said something about it being over by Christmas? I'll stick with what Chris Whitty says, that precautions will be needed for a long time to come.

Couldn’t agree more Gill…. complacency will see many more succumb to this deadly virus because it’s no less virulent now than what it was when it started. The figure the Government should be putting out is one which tells the general public how many are/ have been on ventilators and how many have come off them straight into a body bag this should help concentrate minds.

[towny44]

We already know that 33% of those admitted to hospital with Covid19 do not recover, what we don't know is similar data for other countries, and some idea of why our death rate is higher, if that is the case.

[Manoverboard]

We already know that 33% of those admitted to hospital with Covid19 do not recover, what we don't know is similar data for other countries, and some idea of why our death rate is higher, if that is the case.

I care very much what our own death rates are but couldn't really give a hoot what they are in other Countries but would be interested to know why I should be.

[david63]

The figure the Government should be putting out is one which tells the general public how many are/ have been on ventilators

They are - currently there are 143 on ventilators - https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

[towny44]

We already know that 33% of those admitted to hospital with Covid19 do not recover, what we don't know is similar data for other countries, and some idea of why our death rate is higher, if that is the case.

I care very much what our own death rates are but couldn't really give a hoot what they are in other Countries but would be interested to know why I should be.

What I need to understand is why our death rate is among the highest, I don't subscribe to the view that it's all the govts fault, therefore I want some detailed analysis of the stats. Is our counting system different, is it due to a higher BAME population, or higher obesity levels, or is our health care less efficient?

[Onelife]

The figure the Government should be putting out is one which tells the general public how many are/ have been on ventilators

They are - currently there are 143 on ventilators - https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

Thanks David

Have you noticed how the doctors and nurses’ line the corridors when a patient successfully comes off a ventilator...hope this isn’t an indicator as to how many don’t come off successfully?

[Gill W]

What I need to understand is why our death rate is among the highest, I don't subscribe to the view that it's all the govts fault, therefore I want some detailed analysis of the stats. Is our counting system different, is it due to a higher BAME population, or higher obesity levels, or is our health care less efficient?

I Googled it.

There are various opinions and views, but the one that came up in nearly every article that I saw was that we locked down too late.

[Mervyn and Trish]

They are probably right. Easy to say now.

But if that is the case whose fault is it? Based on the evidence and modelling at the time the scientists recommended it on 16th March. It was in place by 23rd. Given all that had to be done in practical terms and economically could it have been achieved any quicker?

The critics will say of course it could and it's all Bojo's fault.

But it's the wonder of hindsight again. The opposition certainly didn't press for it at the time. They were too busy choosing a new leader and squabbling among themselves.

If we'd locked down in January we'd have had hardly any deaths. But did anyone suggest it? Would the public have done it?

It's also a bit spurious in international comparisons because if they'd all locked down earlier they would have had fewer deaths too. If China had locked down earlier the whole world would have had fewer deaths.

[barney]

The U.K. figures of deaths per infections are clearly wrong or alternatively, other countries are clearly wrong.

[towny44]

What I need to understand is why our death rate is among the highest, I don't subscribe to the view that it's all the govts fault, therefore I want some detailed analysis of the stats. Is our counting system different, is it due to a higher BAME population, or higher obesity levels, or is our health care less efficient?

I Googled it.

There are various opinions and views, but the one that came up in nearly every article that I saw was that we locked down too late.

I will only accept that explanation if every other country with a 21st century health service, has the same percentage of deaths to hospital admissions as the UK. If they are all lower then the answer is in one the ways I outlined above.

[Mervyn and Trish]

I think that's why they're investigating the figures. Even within the UK we're not consistent. In Scotland if someone tested positive for Covid more than 28 days ago they are assumed to have recovered and if they subsequently die it will not automatically appear on the death certificate. In England there is no such cut off and it would.

[Onelife]

They are probably right. Easy to say now.

But if that is the case whose fault is it? Based on the evidence and modelling at the time the scientists recommended it on 16th March. It was in place by 23rd. Given all that had to be done in practical terms and economically could it have been achieved any quicker?

The critics will say of course it could and it's all Bojo's fault.

But it's the wonder of hindsight again. The opposition certainly didn't press for it at the time. They were too busy choosing a new leader and squabbling among themselves.

If we'd locked down in January we'd have had hardly any deaths. But did anyone suggest it? Would the public have done it?

It's also a bit spurious in international comparisons because if they'd all locked down earlier they would have had fewer deaths too. If China had locked down earlier the whole world would have had fewer deaths.

......If we had started wearing masks sooner we would have had fewer deaths.....hold on a minute, there can be no excuse for not wearing face masks sooner other than the government taking bad advise or more likely ignoring good advice