The answer is - ‘I don’t know’.johnds wrote: 17 Dec 2020, 22:39GillGill W wrote: 17 Dec 2020, 11:11
My area is currently 2nd highest for infection rates and the next door council area is the highest, and infection rates are still rising sharply.
Since you are "on the spot" what reason do you attribute to the large increase in infections in your area
Nobody else seems to know either, and I have been trying to get some sort of response from anybody vaguely in charge.
Back in April, the main outbreak here was in care homes. In the community, there wasn’t any large outbreak, and infections were as flat as a pancake all through the summer.
In September, when the schools went back, in common with most areas, our infections began to rise, but were still lower than many other areas.
We went into the second lockdown in tier 1, then around 11th November infections really began to explode, and have continued to balloon every since. We came out of lockdown in tier 3 and infections are still rising. On the current trajectory infections will be over 800 per 100k within a couple of days.
Nobody seems able to pinpoint what went wrong. Some are saying, oh, it’s the schools. The schools are badly affected - last week attendance was down to 53%. But I don’t think this is the full story, as infections are almost as high in the over 60s as they are for under 60s. Others suggest social deprivation, as north Kent is not a prosperous area. But I’m not sure if that’s the answer either, as, if that was the case, we might have expected an infection pattern in line with poorer areas of the north.
It has been suggested there is a different strain of the virus in SE England. If this is the case, it may be super infectious - Nobody knows.
My gut feeling is there was a catalyst for all this in November, but really, it seems a mystery.
We have asymptomatic testing happening in the area. Out of the first 10000 people tested, only 100 infected people were found, so not clear if asymptomatic people are the caused fall this.
Local council leadership very poor, so there is no rallying point for people to feel as if we are working together.
In short, no one knows why it’s happened, there’s no joined up plan to get us out of the situation and it’s going to get worse.
I mostly stay at home, but on my rare outings, people are following the rules, so I’m not willing to blame ‘the people’
It’s all a mystery




