Current Affairs

[Gill W]

I don’t think you need your flak jacket, I think most people here would prefer firm action and the rules to be strictly enforced.

Did you see my answer to your question yesterday? I tried to answer as fully as possible, so would be interested to know what you thought

Your post on the 17th was basically I don't know and nor does anyone else.

This illustrates the difficulty of the situation. If science cannot point out the reason it's impossible for the politicians or any one else to know what to do. ( I except Sir Keir as he always knows what to do after the event)

Now two or three days on science seems to have concluded that the new strain is the cause and the Government has acted more swiftly
with a more draconian policy than I expected but less than I would have preferred.

Joyce and I will stay locked up tight with Christmas on our own away from family which was exactly as we planned weeks ago.

Your infection rates are four times what we are here (about 200 and flat) and I expect to remain in level 3 for a long time yet.

No doubt the hoards "escaping" London last night will ensure that the new strain will arrive here soon.

The thing is, I'm not expected to know the answer, and nor are the people that I've been talking to - they were the 'anyone else' that I was referring to. I did mention the speculation in my post of the 17th that the new variant might have been the catalyst, so some people were on the right track

However, we had all noticed something was wrong, and were puzzled by what was happening - that's why we were all talking about it.

It is reported that the new variant was discovered in September, and infections here started booming here in November, so I'd have hoped that they would have joined up the dots a bit sooner.

None of this makes any difference to me. as I barely leave the house apart from my daily walk. It was only the two of us for Christmas anyway, so no change there. I expect to remain in tier 4 for the forseeable, Unfortunately, I think more areas will also end up in tier 4, based on the scenes at the rail way stations. I wouldn't be surprised if they are taking home an extra, unwelcome present.

[Onelife]

I don’t think you need your flak jacket, I think most people here would prefer firm action and the rules to be strictly enforced.

Did you see my answer to your question yesterday? I tried to answer as fully as possible, so would be interested to know what you thought

Your post on the 17th was basically I don't know and nor does anyone else.

This illustrates the difficulty of the situation. If science cannot point out the reason it's impossible for the politicians or any one else to know what to do. ( I except Sir Keir as he always knows what to do after the event)

Now two or three days on science seems to have concluded that the new strain is the cause and the Government has acted more swiftly
with a more draconian policy than I expected but less than I would have preferred.

Joyce and I will stay locked up tight with Christmas on our own away from family which was exactly as we planned weeks ago.

Your infection rates are four times what we are here (about 200 and flat) and I expect to remain in level 3 for a long time yet.

No doubt the hoards "escaping" London last night will ensure that the new strain will arrive here soon.

The thing is, I'm not expected to know the answer, and nor are the people that I've been talking to - they were the 'anyone else' that I was referring to. I did mention the speculation in my post of the 17th that the new variant might have been the catalyst, so some people were on the right track

However, we had all noticed something was wrong, and were puzzled by what was happening - that's why we were all talking about it.

It is reported that the new variant was discovered in September, and infections here started booming here in November, so I'd have hoped that they would have joined up the dots a bit sooner.

None of this makes any difference to me. as I barely leave the house apart from my daily walk. It was only the two of us for Christmas anyway, so no change there. I expect to remain in tier 4 for the forseeable, Unfortunately, I think more areas will also end up in tier 4, based on the scenes at the rail way stations. I wouldn't be surprised if they are taking home an extra, unwelcome present.

I’m going to give them the bennift of doubt on that one Gill but there is no doubt that they have been going around in circles for the past few months…dot, dot.

[screwy]

Amazing how many experts there on here and apparently non in the scientific area.

[david63]

It is reported that the new variant was discovered in September

I have no reason to doubt that but there is a new variant discovered almost every day and I would make a guess that it has taken time to identify which of these many variants is the one responsible for causing the current problem.

[Onelife]

Amazing how many experts there on here and apparently non in the scientific area.

True Screwy… as is the case with those who have made a catalogue of bad calls.

[Gill W]

It is reported that the new variant was discovered in September

I have no reason to doubt that but there is a new variant discovered almost every day and I would make a guess that it has taken time to identify which of these many variants is the one responsible for causing the current problem.

The trouble is, it was clear something odd was happening in my area in mid November when infections started booming in the middle of lockdown. You’d have hoped this would have set the alarm bells ringing, and that the authorities would have got a grip much earlier.

[Gill W]

Amazing how many experts there on here and apparently non in the scientific area.

You don’t need to be an expert to notice that Covid infections on your doorstep started booming in the middle of a lockdown and continued to rise unabated

[Mervyn and Trish]

Interesting quote from one of the Facebook experts on why we don't need a lockdown and all shops and pubs should stay open.

"It's well known that most of the spread has been within households".

Three points, the first being is it?

But if it is, the second point is that is where we spend most of our time in close contact with others, especially in lockdown.

And the third, let's suppose we have a household of four people and all of them get it. Yes it may be that 3 of them, 75%, got it within the house, thus supporting the statistic. But it didn't magically appear in the house. The fourth must have brought it in from somewhere else. And if that one hadn't done so no-one in the house would have got it. So while 75% were infected in the house, 100% did so because of the 25%'s contact outside the house.

It's like another, true, statistic. More people who have been involved in road accidents die in the ambulance or in hospital that at the scene of the accident. So the FB experts logic would clearly say "if you have a road accident, don't let them put you in the ambulance."

[Ray B]

Some of the most used words during 2020.
To little
To late
To slow
Social distance
Wear a mask and wash hands.

[Onelife]

Some of the most used words during 2020.
To little
To late
To slow
Social distance
Wear a mask and wash hands.

We did all, but badly.

[david63]

all ... and pubs should stay open

I did make a post a couple of days ago that it was reported that in Germany where they too are having a surge in infections that, reportedly, the bars and restaurants have been closed for the last six weeks. So there may be some validity in that argument - although we do not know all the facts about what is happening in Germany.

[oldbluefox]

Of course the fact that figures of infection may rise during a lockdown does not necessarily mean the lockdown isn't working. Since the virus takes several days to incubate and develop symptoms the point of contamination may have taken place outside the period of lockdown. It takes time before the effects of lockdown become apparent. It also depends on the level of compliance within that tier.
I wonder if there will be a spike in infections after those in London had a last fling before going into Tier 3 or a spread in infections following the exodus from London last night.

[david63]

I wonder if there will be a spike in infections after those in London had a last fling before going into Tier 3 or a spread in infections following the exodus from London last night.

Possibly but it will probably get "lost" in the post Christmas spike.

[towny44]

Amazing how many experts there on here and apparently non in the scientific area.

True Screwy… as is the case with those who have made a catalogue of bad calls.

How do you justify the fact that your assessment of a bad call, might be understood by someone else as a perfectly satisfactory decision, and don't just answer that you know you're right and the other guy must therefore be wrong.

[Gill W]

Er....... I think we are in a bad situation.

Cobra meeting tomorrow

[Onelife]

Amazing how many experts there on here and apparently non in the scientific area.

True Screwy… as is the case with those who have made a catalogue of bad calls.

How do you justify the fact that your assessment of a bad call, might be understood by someone else as a perfectly satisfactory decision, and don't just answer that you know you're right and the other guy must therefore be wrong.

Firstly, I don’t need instruction from you telling me what I should or shouldn’t do…but if you ask nicely and I might respond … but hey! What the hell.

Do you remember the WHO message at the start of this pandemic… test, test, test, all we could manage was shambles, shambles, shambles?
Remember: the leading track n trace app …promised but never delivered.
Remember: the nursing home patients sent back to their homes while still being infected…
Remember: how slow we were in stemming the influx of infection from abroad.
Remember: how slow we were to implement the use of face masks.
Remember: how many millions were wasted on useless PPE
Remember: how slow we were to implement lockdowns.

I would have to carry on till midnight to cover all the bad calls but I need my beauty sleep…
…try not to have nightmares because one is coming.

[Mervyn and Trish]

What I find both frustrating and political is the countries slapping travel bans including vital freight on the UK because of this new variant. It's been reported that other countries already have it. Some a while ago. Some other European countries have cases rising faster than here. So maybe the explanation is the same mutation. In fact it is entirely possible it came here from Europe in the first place. If you look at the map of where the rapid growth of this new variant is it's mainly in the south east. Where many travellers from Europe first land. So which way is it moving? Them to us or us to them? It's serious. Too serious for knee jerk politics.

[screwy]

We need Trump to build a wall around the south east to stop the spread....

Only joking...

[Mervyn and Trish]

We need Trump to build a wall around the south east to stop the spread....

Only joking...

Good plan though. He'll have nothing else to do soon.

[Gill W]

I haven’t seen any reports to suggest that the variant originated in Europe. So far, they seem to suggest that it originated in the south east of England, as that’s where it’s most prevalent.

The new strain has been reported to WHO - I think the dots would have been joined up by now if the variant was in circulation in large numbers in Europe.

As this forum has spent time this weekend condemning the people who left London yesterday, possibly spreading the virus in their destination, I don’t think it’s unreasonable for other countries to take quick action to try to stop it happening to them.

As Keith said a bit earlier we have been slow on multiple occasions with our response, it seems like other countries react quicker.

I support what they have done, but it makes it a very bad situation for us in the U.K.

[barney]

I’ve just been reading of the potential shortage of potatoes, sprouts and parsnips over Xmas due to trucks being held up in Kent.
If true, it certainly begs the question why do we import those products .
Given that it is trucks out, not in, I expect it’s the usual media rubbish but could potentially spark panic buying.
Why do the papers do this?

[Stephen]

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[Manoverboard]

Odd that the latest spread was probably out of London then to Kent and Essex. Meanwhile it headed west towards the port of Portsmouth and north towards Peterborough. The strangest thing is that the great plague of 1665-ish took exactly the same route.

Just saying .....

[Ray B]

The new variant of the virus is believed to have started in the south. Unlike the flu virus which can mutate very fast,covid may mutate once or twice a month. It wants to survive, so changing its ways to do this more quickly can also weaken it. As has been reported it is not being seen as being more severe in its new form and the vaccine efficiencyis not effected from the Data so far.
The new variant also has a name, VUI-202012/01
The good news is that as this virus is more stable than the flu virus, we may be able to attack it more easily, but the best way at this moment in time is washing hands, face covering and keep the 2mts apart where possible. Stay safe everyone.

[david63]

Some thoughts from a non scientific person.

First a couple of facts.

• The Covid virus has mutated in London/South of England.
• Most Western European countries are seeing a spike in the number of Covid infections.

Could it be that other countries also have a mutation that has not been identified as quickly as the UK one has?

Could the European mutated virus(es) also be contributing to the current spike in the South of England?