Life After Brexit

[Gill W]

I’m expecting further wrangling over fish in 2026 at the time of the review.

[david63]

As I see it there is a deal on the table for both sides to approve and that will form the framework going forward.

[barney]

I’m expecting further wrangling over fish in 2026 at the time of the review.

Guaranteed.
But memories of our membership will be distant.
Any concessions will be on our terms, not theirs.
The balance of power has moved.

[Kendhni]

I’m expecting further wrangling over fish in 2026 at the time of the review.

That will be interesting because it now means that Johnson has 3 years to make brexit work (although I suspect he will get booted out long before then). The electorate are a fickle lot so if they are suffering austerity, high taxation or if brexit has not delivered some tangible benefits it could well be that whoever gets elected next could look to align themselves more closely with the EU (while not actually reversing brexit). At the minute Sunak has made it clear that in 2021 he is expecting a 2% hit on the economy due to Coronavirus and a 4% hit due to brexit - so he has a lot of hard work to do and 3 years in which to deliver it.

[barney]

If any major party at the next election evens mentions the word Brexit, they will be slaughtered.
That boat has sailed for at least a generation.

Young children in the future will ask what was the Eu and will be told that it was a political experiment that went wrong.

It will be seen similarly to the fall of the Roman, British or Soviet Empires.
Eventually they all fall because they get too large to control.

[oldbluefox]

In five years time, or even less, the EU may look totally different. Many countries within the EU will be watching the UK and how we fare outside the bloc.
As far as fishing is concerned we will be negotiating solely on fishing rights without it being part of an overall deal and used as a bargaining chip by the French.

[barney]

The real big difference going forward is that the U.K. decides it’s future and future relationship with the Eu.
We may choose to stay quite closely aligned or we may choose to massively diverge and take the consequences, but the overriding point of the entire thing is that it will be the U.K. choice.

[Kendhni]

If any major party at the next election evens mentions the word Brexit, they will be slaughtered.

I disagree, I think it will be a major point of interest in the next election from all parties ... (or to use superlatives often stated but never actually used) if the "sky has caved in" or if we are all "milk and honey" I am sure the political parties will remind us ... plus anything and everything in between.

That boat has sailed for at least a generation.

I am inclined to agree with you but I think the next 3 years will determine which direction the boat will take, closer relations or total divergence.

Young children in the future will ask what was the Eu and will be told that it was a political experiment that went wrong.

Alternatively UK children of the future could be asking why the rat they just had for dinner was so tough - both equally unlikely.

It will be seen similarly to the fall of the Roman, British or Soviet Empires.
Eventually they all fall because they get too large to control.

Which was not actually the reason for the downfall of any of those.

[Stephen]

In five years time, or even less, the EU may look totally different. Many countries within the EU will be watching the UK and how we fare outside the bloc.
As far as fishing is concerned we will be negotiating solely on fishing rights without it being part of an overall deal and used as a bargaining chip by the French.

[barney]

If any major party at the next election evens mentions the word Brexit, they will be slaughtered.

I disagree, I think it will be a major point of interest in the next election from all parties ... (or to use superlatives often stated but never actually used) if the "sky has caved in" or if we are all "milk and honey" I am sure the political parties will remind us ... plus anything and everything in between.

That boat has sailed for at least a generation.

I am inclined to agree with you but I think the next 3 years will determine which direction the boat will take, closer relations or total divergence.

Young children in the future will ask what was the Eu and will be told that it was a political experiment that went wrong.

Alternatively UK children of the future could be asking why the rat they just had for dinner was so tough - both equally unlikely.

It will be seen similarly to the fall of the Roman, British or Soviet Empires.
Eventually they all fall because they get too large to control.

Which was not actually the reason for the downfall of any of those.

You have every right to disagree.

[Kendhni]

As far as fishing is concerned we will be negotiating solely on fishing rights without it being part of an overall deal and used as a bargaining chip by the French.

Actually the agreement is clear on this. The UK wanted a CFTA agreement supplemented with separate agreements for fishing, security, judiciary, transport etc. each with separate governance. That however is not the structure of the agreement, it is a single institutional framework (apart from Information security and Civil Nuclear). So fishing (which is nothing more than totemic) will be negotiated as part of reform of the EU fisheries- which is why it has been (rightly) pushed out for 5.5 years (that is when the CFP is due for review) and may encompass other aspects of the wider agreement.

[towny44]

As far as fishing is concerned we will be negotiating solely on fishing rights without it being part of an overall deal and used as a bargaining chip by the French.

Actually the agreement is clear on this. The UK wanted a CFTA agreement supplemented with separate agreements for fishing, security, judiciary, transport etc. each with separate governance. That however is not the structure of the agreement, it is a single institutional framework (apart from Information security and Civil Nuclear). So fishing (which is nothing more than totemic) will be negotiated as part of reform of the EU fisheries- which is why it has been (rightly) pushed out for 5.5 years (that is when the CFP is due for review) and may encompass other aspects of the wider agreement.

Do you know that for a fact Ken, or is that your speculative assessment on a quick glance at something on-line?

[Kendhni]

As far as fishing is concerned we will be negotiating solely on fishing rights without it being part of an overall deal and used as a bargaining chip by the French.

Actually the agreement is clear on this. The UK wanted a CFTA agreement supplemented with separate agreements for fishing, security, judiciary, transport etc. each with separate governance. That however is not the structure of the agreement, it is a single institutional framework (apart from Information security and Civil Nuclear). So fishing (which is nothing more than totemic) will be negotiated as part of reform of the EU fisheries- which is why it has been (rightly) pushed out for 5.5 years (that is when the CFP is due for review) and may encompass other aspects of the wider agreement.

Do you know that for a fact Ken, or is that your speculative assessment on a quick glance at something on-line?

Read the agreement and then you will be able to draw proper conclusions.
I am sure there will be other review points along the way but the major one will be when the CFP comes up for review - which is in 5.5 years time (hence why the 5.5 years being mentioned by all the news channels). That could go very much in the UKs favour or may be more tough negotiations - we will not know for 5.5 years.

[barney]

Fishing is nothing more than totemic, except for the fishermen.
As one lady said in an interview on our local news recently, “ fishing may be a small part of U.K. GDP but it’s 90% of ours”

It’s arrogance of the highest level, to dismiss a person’s way of living as totemic.

[barney]

Actually the agreement is clear on this. The UK wanted a CFTA agreement supplemented with separate agreements for fishing, security, judiciary, transport etc. each with separate governance. That however is not the structure of the agreement, it is a single institutional framework (apart from Information security and Civil Nuclear). So fishing (which is nothing more than totemic) will be negotiated as part of reform of the EU fisheries- which is why it has been (rightly) pushed out for 5.5 years (that is when the CFP is due for review) and may encompass other aspects of the wider agreement.

Do you know that for a fact Ken, or is that your speculative assessment on a quick glance at something on-line?

Read the agreement and then you will be able to draw conclusions.

which means you haven’t .
That’s a Jack Staff response

[Kendhni]

Fishing is nothing more than totemic, except for the fishermen.
As one lady said in an interview on our local news recently, “ fishing may be a small part of U.K. GDP but it’s 90% of ours”

It’s arrogance of the highest level, to dismiss a person’s way of living as totemic.

You still need to work on your comprehension skills, I said that 'fishing' was totemic, not the people, not the way of life (especially since my uncle is a trawler owner). Use of such strawmen is just asinine.

Plus you are only listening and repeating what you are being told to by a proportion of the fishermen and lies started and spread by Farage (who totally failed the fishermen for over 20 years, a period when he was actually meant to represent them). What about the fishermen that were terrified of a no deal because it would have virtually wiped out their livelihoods. Their concerns and voices were largely ignored by the totemic media spin about only one aspect of fishing.

[Kendhni]

Do you know that for a fact Ken, or is that your speculative assessment on a quick glance at something on-line?

Read the agreement and then you will be able to draw conclusions.

which means you haven’t .
That’s a Jack Staff response

Oh dear, only took a couple of posts to find that all some people have are strawmen and ad hominems - a true sign of your ignorance on the subject

[Ray B]

Do correct me on the facts, but did the some of the UK fishing concerns way back sell their quotas to the French after they said they couldn't make a living. Now, with a big rich market in France and Spain are now regretting it and want a bit of the action.
Today with no fishing boats and a generation not going to sea, is the fishing industry really ready to go to sea?

[barney]

Read the agreement and then you will be able to draw conclusions.

which means you haven’t .
That’s a Jack Staff response

Oh dear, only took a couple of posts to find that all some people have are strawmen and ad hominems - a true sign of your ignorance on the subject

Whereas you are clearly an expert.
I’m amazed that you were not added to the Eu negotiating team.

You’re views are your views and nothing much is going to change that, but please accept that you are out of step with the great unwashed, who, unfortunately for you, have the ultimate power in a democracy.
Good luck

[barney]

Do correct me on the facts, but did the some of the UK fishing concerns way back sell their quotas to the French after they said they couldn't make a living. Now, with a big rich market in France and Spain are now regretting it and want a bit of the action.
Today with no fishing boats and a generation not going to sea, is the fishing industry really ready to go to sea?

You are correct Ray.

As Dylan sang, the times are a changing.

It’s a new era in the U.K. history and it’s there for the taking, right across the world.

[oldbluefox]

Do correct me on the facts, but did the some of the UK fishing concerns way back sell their quotas to the French after they said they couldn't make a living. Now, with a big rich market in France and Spain are now regretting it and want a bit of the action.
Today with no fishing boats and a generation not going to sea, is the fishing industry really ready to go to sea?

That is my thinking Ray. It will take time for the fishing industry to be up and running to take advantage of the new quotas. It won't happen overnight. How many British fishermen are currently working on French owned boats?

Not sure why we are worrying anyway. The EU will be a different creature, if still with us, in five years time.

[oldbluefox]

I'm quite happy to be ignorant. I've been right so far throughout the past 4 years.

[Kendhni]

Do correct me on the facts, but did the some of the UK fishing concerns way back sell their quotas to the French after they said they couldn't make a living. Now, with a big rich market in France and Spain are now regretting it and want a bit of the action.
Today with no fishing boats and a generation not going to sea, is the fishing industry really ready to go to sea?

A reasonably good summary. Within the UK the British CHOSE to sell their fleet and use fishing rights and quotas as a commodity. Onelife put up a very good article a while back explaining this - I think it actually claimed that more money was made by selling the quotas than was actually made by fishing. Plus all this hoo hah and media storm that has been whipped up about fishing has focussed only on one aspect (trawler) while totally ignoring the others. For example some of our inshore fishermen rely on access to French waters and the French/Spanish markets to sell.

[david63]

Can we all please show a little respect for each other without the constant tirade of insults just because some have different views than others

[Mervyn and Trish]

Can we all please show a little respect for each other without the constant tirade of insults just because some have different views than others

Hear hear. I had hoped now the deal was done we could get on with uniting to make it work.