Current Affairs

[oldbluefox]

Alright Gill, much the same difference, "they bought up gilts" but the point you seem to conveniently overlook is the fact it only cost £19bn, but "The bill could have run to £65bn or even more", the operative words being "could have" and "for all we know the BofE MAY have to step in again". Then again they may not but why spoil the doommongers fun.
£65bn sounds much more dramatic though, doesn't it?

[Kendhni]

Refreshing speech from Hunt, seems to be saying the right words ... even if it puts him in the "anti-growth coalition".
It will be interesting to see what he comes up with.

I personally didn’t find anything refreshing other than what you would expect from a government down on its knees…If he had said something like… “me and my backbenchers couldn’t hack the fact that the referendum went against us, therefore we did everything in our power to disrupt the party” then I would have found that refreshing. But hey-ho it’s one foot back in the door.

Unlike kami-kwasi he seems to at least understand the situation and know that it was not the right time for 'the plan' as presented. While I detest the thought of it, rises in taxation need to be made to get this out of control borrowing under control ... after which, maybe Trussonomics will be the right plan at the right time. Johnson/Sunak actually started this, but , for political reasons, they cowered away from from raising income tax and instead made it a tax on having a job.

I have no idea if Hunt will be a good or bad chancellor, only time will tell ... but, from his initial comments, he at least seems to have an understanding of the relationship between government, the BoE, the markets and the electorate (something Truss/Kwarteng obviously lacked).

[screwy]

Listening to LBC this morning and it was mentioned that the Shadow Chancellor,her with the permanent miserable face,can’t remember her name,said publicly that the Government spent £65b propping up the pensions,when it was only £4.7b, I know figures differ.!
This person worked at the BoE so should know better. Political point scoring.? How could we possibly trust her with the economy if she can’t/ doesn’t want to get the figures right.!

They also discussed Labours policies or complete lack of.!

Diane Abbott for Chancellor anyone.?

[Kendhni]

Refreshing speech from Hunt, seems to be saying the right words ... even if it puts him in the "anti-growth coalition".
It will be interesting to see what he comes up with.

He SOUNDS like a grown up, but that’s not difficult when compared to the people that surround him. I tend to think he has some fiscal understanding, so it will be interesting to see what he does. But it’s a strange world when Jeremy Hunt seems like a good choice!

Some thought a clown was a good choice, so why not?

The bill could have run to £65bn or even more, but the BofE decided to stop their action on 14th October, probably to force the government to face up to the crisis and take action. If they’d just carried on mopping up unsold gilts, the situation would probably have just drifted on and on. Not sure we are out of the woods yet. The markets still seem to think that U.K. Gilts are not an attractive proposition, so, for all we know, the BofE may have to step in again

It looks like Andrew Bailey called the bluff of both Truss and the pension companies. If uturn Betty had not fired Kwarteng and had not made the humiliating uturn on her budget then I don't believe Truss would have made it to the end of Friday. Whether or not she makes it to the end of the month is another question, but she has now exposed herself as weak, not in control and way out of her depth.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Maybe Gill, post #17325, because I like to see a bigger picture and balance. I am a genuine floating voter and like to consider the options and not focus on one.

For example you highlight Boris's lies, so I don't need to do that, and I consider Blair's lies that took us into an illegal war that cost tens of thousands of lives worse than those about a birthday cake.

I recognise that government borrowing and economic incompetence is not just a Tory weakness. Yes of course there was a financial crash in 2008. There was also Covid and a major war in Europe and worldwide economic turmoil right now. "No wonder things went awry." You can't blame Tory incompetence now and ignore Labour incompetence then. No more boom and bust Gordon Brown promised. Prudence.

We're told pension schemes have been at risk now. Partly because of an ill considered or ill timed budget. Partly because they've been seriously weakened and forced to take risky investment decisions since Gordon Brown raided them, resulting by the way in the closure of most final salary schemes. It's those risky investments coming home to roost now, not the value of gilts themselves.

There's lots of angst about mortgage rates right now. They were typically 5.75% in 2007 and I remember higher than that. They've only been so low for so long after they were slashed to tackle the 2008 crisis. Maybe the mistake was allowing borrowers to believe they'd be low forever.

Yes at the moment it's a Tory government making all the mistakes. They're the ones in power. That means the most likely next government will be headed by Sir Hindsight. So I worry about his competence too.

You've called it whataboutery in the past. But while you've been happy to attack the incumbent government I've also been thinking what is the alternative and would it be any better? On past records I'm not at all confident either way.

You've admitted you don't know what you want next. Nor do I. There is no perfect Party and soon we will have to choose which past record we will take a chance with. My bet is Labour will win because memories are short. Mine isn't. I like to remind others in case they've forgotten.

[screwy]

Can’t argue with that Merv,but I’m sure some will.!
Not picking on anyone in general. It’s just a forum after all, everyone’s entitled to their views.

[Onelife]

Refreshing speech from Hunt, seems to be saying the right words ... even if it puts him in the "anti-growth coalition".
It will be interesting to see what he comes up with.

I have no idea if Hunt will be a good or bad chancellor, only time will tell ... but, from his initial comments, he at least seems to have an understanding of the relationship between government, the BoE, the markets and the electorate (something Truss/Kwarteng obviously lacked).

Kami-kwasi

I think the only thing we can take from Jeremy Hunts appointment is that he will be seen as a calming figure amongst the troublemakers’ grandees of the conservative party. That being said, the party (if we are are to persist with this dysfunctional parliamentary system) has no option but to reinstall confidence in the markets. As you say its going to be a waiting game, a game in which Hunt has become the most powerful person in the country.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Apart from Stephen, obviously....

[Onelife]

Apart from Stephen, obviously....

You should have stuck with your previous post as it was very good

[Kendhni]

Can’t argue with that Merv,but I’m sure some will.!

No need to argue, but knowing the full picture rather than one person's recollection is better.
http://www.opalliance.org.uk/archive/decline.htm
A smorgasbord of characters and events ... Lawson did a lot more damage than Brown, but life expectancy was probably the final nail in the coffin for many final salary pensions.

[Kendhni]

a game in which Hunt has become the most powerful person in the country.

Not sure if I should be scared or happy about that.

[Onelife]

a game in which Hunt has become the most powerful person in the country.

Not sure if I should be scared or happy about that.

For further information please contact any NHS doctor

[Kendhni]

a game in which Hunt has become the most powerful person in the country.

Not sure if I should be scared or happy about that.

For further information please contact any NHS doctor

I will ... I am joining the striking doctors picket line just so that I can see my doctor face-to-face.

[Onelife]

Not sure if I should be scared or happy about that.

For further information please contact any NHS doctor

I will ... I am joining the striking doctors picket line just so that I can see my doctor face-to-face.

Join the queue like the rest of us!

[Gill W]

Alright Gill, much the same difference, "they bought up gilts" but the point you seem to conveniently overlook is the fact it only cost £19bn, but "The bill could have run to £65bn or even more", the operative words being "could have" and "for all we know the BofE MAY have to step in again". Then again they may not but why spoil the doommongers fun.
£65bn sounds much more dramatic though, doesn't it?

The Bank of England were willing to spend 65bn on gilts, but they stopped at £19bn. The fact that they had to take this action in the first place is an indication of the seriousness of the situation - they weren't doing it on a whim.

£19Bn is still a huge amount of money and the situation is still unstable - gilt yields are still very high - in fact they increased again after Truss's press conference. I'm not willing to say that this is resolved. I'm sorry you don't like that, but I have to be honest.

Listening to LBC this morning and it was mentioned that the Shadow Chancellor,her with the permanent miserable face,can’t remember her name,said publicly that the Government spent £65b propping up the pensions,when it was only £4.7b, I know figures differ.!
This person worked at the BoE so should know better. Political point scoring.? How could we possibly trust her with the economy if she can’t/ doesn’t want to get the figures right.!

They also discussed Labours policies or complete lack of.!

Diane Abbott for Chancellor anyone.?

Rachel Reeves. If she said that she was wrong - is there any proof that she said it? e.g' film clip or news report? Otherwise, it's a bit harsh to dismiss her on hearsay alone! (and before anyone starts, I always get citations from several sources before I accept something)

[screwy]

I don’t know Gill, but Ian Dale who I believe is a reputable journalist made the comment this morning, don’t see any reason why he would make it up, other than him being in the media.?

Was she wrong or just blatantly lying for political point scoring….I don’t know.
If she was ‘ lying ‘ she is just as untrustworthy as the rest.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Can’t argue with that Merv,but I’m sure some will.!

No need to argue, but knowing the full picture rather than one person's recollection is better.
http://www.opalliance.org.uk/archive/decline.htm
A smorgasbord of characters and events ... Lawson did a lot more damage than Brown, but life expectancy was probably the final nail in the coffin for many final salary pensions.

I know it doesn't suit your narrative but that itself is only one version of the story and even that shows the real decline began in 1997. Before that virtually every FTSE 100 company had a final salary pension scheme and 90% of private sector workers were in one. That had plummeted by 2010 and now virtually none do. Yes there have been other contributions, but the majority of informed sources say Gordon Brown's raid was a major factor. More significantly it was a cumulative one that has had impact way after he left office. And importantly in the last week it was his raid that led fund managers to gamble by leveraging over and over their gilt holdings, which has now caused the panic when they have had to sell them off at falling prices to meet cash demands.

I do not blame Gordon Brown entirely. As I explained to Gill I like to take a wider view. And equally you cannot entirely blame Tory incompetence. A number of factors are to blame for the pension crisis this week, yes including us having the nerve to get older, but Gordon Brown is certainly as big villain in this story as poor old Kwasi. He left the ticking time bomb for Kwasi to trip over.

[Gill W]

Maybe Gill, post #17325, because I like to see a bigger picture and balance. I am a genuine floating voter and like to consider the options and not focus on one.

For example you highlight Boris's lies, so I don't need to do that, and I consider Blair's lies that took us into an illegal war that cost tens of thousands of lives worse than those about a birthday cake.

I recognise that government borrowing and economic incompetence is not just a Tory weakness. Yes of course there was a financial crash in 2008. There was also Covid and a major war in Europe and worldwide economic turmoil right now. "No wonder things went awry." You can't blame Tory incompetence now and ignore Labour incompetence then. No more boom and bust Gordon Brown promised. Prudence.

We're told pension schemes have been at risk now. Partly because of an ill considered or ill timed budget. Partly because they've been seriously weakened and forced to take risky investment decisions since Gordon Brown raided them, resulting by the way in the closure of most final salary schemes. It's those risky investments coming home to roost now, not the value of gilts themselves.

There's lots of angst about mortgage rates right now. They were typically 5.75% in 2007 and I remember higher than that. They've only been so low for so long after they were slashed to tackle the 2008 crisis. Maybe the mistake was allowing borrowers to believe they'd be low forever.

Yes at the moment it's a Tory government making all the mistakes. They're the ones in power. That means the most likely next government will be headed by Sir Hindsight. So I worry about his competence too.

You've called it whataboutery in the past. But while you've been happy to attack the incumbent government I've also been thinking what is the alternative and would it be any better? On past records I'm not at all confident either way.

You've admitted you don't know what you want next. Nor do I. There is no perfect Party and soon we will have to choose which past record we will take a chance with. My bet is Labour will win because memories are short. Mine isn't. I like to remind others in case they've forgotten.

I am also a floating voter. Over the years I've agreed with various parties and disagreed with them in equal measure.

I strongly disagreed with the Iraq War, and have never forgiven Blair for that - but I feel it doesn't do any good to keep mentioning something that happened 20 years ago in discussions about current affairs in the here and now.

You say that you choose not to 'highlight Johnson's lies - but your silence gives the impression that, even if you don't actually condone the lies, you think that it wasn't important. Indeed, just mentioning the 'cake' lie as if that was the only lie, backs up that impression that I have.

Labour were last in power in 2010. As I said above, I just don't see the relevance in talking about the rights and wrongs of the last Labour government, over a decade ago, when I'm writing about something that is happening right now.

We are where we are now due to events and poor leadership. Some of the events were things that were out of our control, such as Covid and Ukraine. Others are things we chose to do, e.g. Brexit. I believe Cameron lit the fuse with his decision to have a referendum, and Prime Ministers since then have been of increasingly lower quality. None of which has anything to do with what Labour did in 2010!

Regarding pension funds - Ken mentioned recently that Brown didn't 'raid' pension funds in 1997. He removed dividend tax credits.

The current issue with Pension funds centred on UK Gilts. Most pension funds hold UK Gilts, as they are considered one of the less risky investments and good for long term holdings. But the budget suddenly made the investment seem very risky indeed, so the pension funds started selling Gilts, and no one wanted to buy them. So the BofE had to step in and buy up the Gilts

We don't know what Starmer would be like as PM. But I think we have more to worry about right now, than fret about something that may or may not happen in the future. I would only start thinking about this, if a GE was called, would then see what his manifesto contained. But, I feel he's unlikely to be as incompetent as the current incumbent. As you persist in calling him Sir Hindsight, it suggests to me that you've already made up your mind about him.

You keep on talking about 'attacks'. Personally, I'm discussing what's in the news now. If I don't agree with what's happening or I think that the people in the roles are not fit for purpose, I will say so. That's not 'attacks' that's just discussion and I'd much rather be able to say that I agree with everything that's happening. However, to be fair, your comments about Starmer could be construed as 'attacks.

As a floating voter. you seem very anti Labour. From recollection, I don't think you are keen on the Lib Dems. It doesn't give you many options!

[Gill W]

I don’t know Gill, but Ian Dale who I believe is a reputable journalist made the comment this morning, don’t see any reason why he would make it up, other than him being in the media.?

Was she wrong or just blatantly lying for political point scoring….I don’t know.
If she was ‘ lying ‘ she is just as untrustworthy as the rest.

Ian Dale leans a certain way, and it's not to the left.

Before I could accept it as what happened I would have to look for something to corroborate the quote from other sources

[oldbluefox]

I'm sorry you don't like that, but I have to be honest.

I'm not bothered, Gill. You're the one arguing.
My point, which you seem to have missed, was that the media did not report the fact that £19bn was spent. To all intents and purposes it appeared the BofE had spent £65bn which was clearly untrue.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Gill re #17343, this forum relies on free speech. You comment as you wish, I will comment as I wish.

You can construe my silence on some issues as you wish but it doesn't make your interpretation correct. You can construe my calling Sir K Sir Hindsight as attacks. Or maybe it's because I'm frustrated that until recently he's told me nothing about himself other than "I'm not Boris " and "I wouldn't have done that". If he wants my vote he has to tell me clearly what I'm voting for, not what I'm not voting for. As an attack it's pretty mild compared to some of the things you and others have said about the Tories

Maybe my flippancy about cakes is because even when that was a live issue I thought there were bigger ones and was fed up with the constant banging on about it.

As for the illegal Iraq War it is still affecting us today. It has fuelled terrorism that is ongoing and even Putin has used it as a comparison to justify his own behaviour. So it's far from a distant memory for me.

As for who to vote for next. You're wrong that I am anti anyone. I could point out that as a proclaimed floating voter you seem pretty consistently anti-Tory! But you are spot on that I haven't a clue who to vote for at the moment. But I too have voted for all three major parties in the past.

[oldbluefox]

You are not alone Mervyn.
When Blair came to power I was very hopeful about what New Labour represented. Here was a government which had taken the centre ground and promised better days. In truth he was no better than all the rest and when he had ruined the economy he passed the reins over to the hapless Gordon Brown.
For many reasons I would not vote for the Labour Party largely because I find them too London centric, too much under the thumb of left wing unions and show a lack of honesty. You can add hypocrisy for a man who has anti monarchist leanings yet knelt before Her Majesty for his knighthood.
And this is my dilemma. I find too many politicians of whatever persuasion hypocritical and will do anything and say anything to get into power and I include Truss in that.
Tbh I don't know who I would vote for in the current climate. I could be back to a protest vote.

[Onelife]

I personally would never consider voting for the labour party while Raynor, Thornbury and Streeting have any influence over it. Neither will any other sensible person if they have the best interests of our country at heart.

Here’s hoping Barney isn’t reading this

[Onelife]

You are not alone Mervyn.
When Blair came to power I was very hopeful about what New Labour represented. Here was a government which had taken the centre ground and promised better days. In truth he was no better than all the rest and when he had ruined the economy he passed the reins over to the hapless Gordon Brown.
For many reasons I would not vote for the Labour Party largely because I find them too London centric, too much under the thumb of left wing unions and show a lack of honesty. You can add hypocrisy for a man who has anti monarchist leanings yet knelt before Her Majesty for his knighthood.
And this is my dilemma. I find too many politicians of whatever persuasion hypocritical and will do anything and say anything to get into power and I include Truss in that.
Tbh I don't know who I would vote for in the current climate. I could be back to a protest vote.

I'm starting to have more respect for Sir Kier

[barney]

There are many traditional Tory voters who went totally anti after the vote to leave the EU.
They talk about it as a Tory Brexit despite the actual fact that the Tory Party campaigned harder to remain than Labour.
Corbyn was very lukewarm about the EU.
What some have found unacceptable is that the Tory government actually upheld the democratic vote decision.
At the time, I called them the anti democrats, because that’s exactly what they are.
Since that momentous decision, quite a few had had a change of heart and find they can no longer support the Tories under any circumstances.