Apologies for lnog post, but yours raises so many interesting points.
Onelife wrote: 22 Oct 2022, 22:40
I’m not willing to surrender my Brexit aspirations just yet Ken but if I am still around in ten years’ time, I will give you a more definitive answer as to whether or not I was wrong in voting for Brexit… from an economic perspective. I will, however, never change my mind from wanting to be a Sovereign county outside of the EU.
I am not asking anyone to surrender their aspirations (others may, but I am not), I am asking for everyone to push to get the promises delivered ... we were made a lot of promises and, as of yet nothing of any consequence has been delivered ... apart from excuses and playing the blame game.
I think a lot of the jibber jabber surrounding our departure from the EU has been generated from those who conveniently forget the turbulences we have been through this past three years…and in saying that, I think it would take a very disgruntled Remainer to say things wouldn’t have been different had we had a level playing field to work from during this time.
The major economies of the world had recovered by Feb 2021 .... except the UK. The UK took until the end of 2021 to make headway, leading Johnson to make the misleading claim about the UK being the fastest growing economy (a clam that even a primary school pupil could have destroyed .. yet some took it at face value). There is an expression "in a rising tide any rusty old tub will float" ... that covers the UK.
The evidence is available through the only peer reviewed modelling that has been done to show the impact of brexit ... some have tried to decry the model yet, despite attempts, those same people have been unable to produce anything showing a different/better picture. The model was deliberately designed to cut out all the noise of COVID, Ukraine, energy etc. and focuses on its key metric. Instead of leading growth in the G7, as we did for decades, we now trail along the bottom ... the model shows that we are over 5% below where we should be (the equivalent of about £100bn per year) ... that was the reason why Truss was going for growth, she saw that 5% as an easy win ... unfortunately she forgot that any measures would require major funding.
I’m not sure how things will pan out from here, but had it not been the case that we have a political system in turmoil then I think our trading partners would/will see the benefits of a trading partnership that is mutually beneficial to both sides in the future.
We do have some evidence about our 'trading partners'. Remember that foreign secretary, a real under achiever called Truss? She ran around the world, costing the tax payer millions, and she achieved .... drum roll .... virtually nothing. She did sign off a trade deal with Japan ... one that the Japanese were very happy with because they wanted to offer her the much better deal that they had given the EU, but her keen negotiating skills left the Japanese laughing the whole way to the bank. There is an ongoing discussion with Australia, one that she has already made multiple concessions on, but it could increase our GDP by 0.08% after only 15 years ... not far off the damage she did in only a few days.
America has pretty much ruled out any significant deal with the UK in the near future ... it has far more important things to deal with. In this instance Farage and Johnson decided to butt kiss Trump ... a true case of backing the wrong donkey. Due to distribution issues many leading UK companies have chosen to set up distribution hubs and employ hundreds of people on mainland Europe, instead of the UK ... some are even talking of moving their main base to the EU and reducing their footprint in the UK (less bureaucratic to go EU-UK than UK-EU). We can only stick our heads in the sand for so long ... after that we need actual action from government.
So, at the minute, it is not looking rosy. You could see this yourself which is why Trusses 'go for growth' did make an element of sense (it just wasn't the right time).
We will eventually rise from the ashes and cast this sad period to another moment of our history.
I hope so, I really do. However, you may, or may not, remember a post I put up on the old P&O site talking about the balance of power shifting from the west to the east. It is predicted to happen this century (if not over the next few decades) ... you can see evidence of it happening already ... countries like Russia, India, Pakistan and even middle east aligning themselves more closely with their eastern neighbours rather than their more traditional western neighbours.
I was reading an article last night where it appears that China and other countries have started pulling funding out of America. To try to ease this the US is already starting to lift tariffs on Chinese goods. China needs the money for its own growth plans and support within its neighbouring countries.
The question is can the UK rise from the ashes of such a major shift of balance of power and the start of a period of deglobalisation (that the UK is ill-prepared for)? ... or to use my earlier analogy "in a falling tide the rusty old tub leads the way". It is going to be gradual and most will barely notice the change, but the UK has a major issue in unfunded DB pensions and an ageing population that lives for longer ... will the country be able to honour these pensions in full?
And just when you thought things couldn't get any worse, my wife tells me Boris has reached 100 backers
Oh goody, cue the partygate, russian interference, misleading parliament headlines again ... gets all the boring cost-of-living crisis off the front pages.
Even the tory media is saying he should not return ... yet! Some even suggest he would not make it to Christmas as PM.
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