Cheltenham-Day one

[Onelife]

With Beta Blockers on standby and sofa drawn up to within two metre of the television we are nearly there….
Yes’, It’s Cheltenham and I’m struggling to contain my excitement about what the next four days have in store.

As always, I will post my selections/stake/ losses and “hopeful” winnings each day.

Day one (tomorrow) is more of a watching day for me as I expect some of the supposedly good things to go in, however, their odds are a little short for betting purposes so I’m sticking to the three handicap races.

2.40 The Changing Man…£8 win
4.40 Liam Swagger £5 win
5.20 Now is The Hour…£5 win.

I have already backed one later in the week (Friday) however, it may not get into the race so have backed it nrnb.
5.20 Minella Missile £9 win £1ew ..50/1
It will however be a leap of faith if you back this one as it’s been pulled up on its last two outings, that being said, I can see it running a better race than its odds would suggest.

Of the other races…1.20 Kopek des Bordes, 2.00 Majborugh, 3.20 Lossiemouth, will be running at prohibitive odds so I’ll leave them for the professional gamblers. Constitution Hill looks to be the one in the Champion Hurdle but I won’t be surprised if the new kid on the block… “Brighterdaysahead” makes him work very hard for the victory.

Good luck if you are having a flutter.

[Onelife]

Footnote to the above.

Minella Missile was entered up for three races and it now looks like it could be running in the Coral Cup Wednesday…currently trading around 40/1

Same stake.

[Portsmouth]

Of the other races…1.20 Kopek des Bordes,

This seems like the one to win in the first race but betting odds are at evens, however for anyone looking for a better priced horse.....
Rachael Blackmore who won this race last year is riding..... Workahead about ( 7-1 ) who raced last ( and won ) in December

At 25/1 maybe Tripoli Flyer might be an idea for an outside bet . I think a place might be possible

[oldbluefox]

Was it involved in this race?

[oldbluefox]

Well we'll not get any sense out of Keefy for a while now that Cheltenham has started!!!
Come to think of it..............

[Onelife]

Hi Pompy, the combination of Henry De Bromhead and Racheal Blackmore are always to be feared, so it will come as no surprise if Workahead runs a big race…. not so sure about Tripoli Flyer for this class of race (famous last words) I did read that Willie Mullins thinks very highly of Kopek des Bordes but as you say it is a short price for this competitive field.

I note that your Grand National selection (Galvin) runs on Wednesday in the Cross Country Event…9/2 fav

[Onelife]

Well we'll not get any sense out of Keefy for a while now that Cheltenham has started!!!
Come to think of it..............

There are more important things in life foxy

[Onelife]

Was it involved in this race?

Don’t you just love racing ….great find Foxy …that really brought a smile to my face

[Portsmouth]

Was it involved in this race?

That's so funny

[Portsmouth]

OneLife, regarding your choice The Changing Man in the 2:40 race......I agree it looks like it has a good chance of winning and the betting odds are pretty good at 7/1 but it is a big field.

Just wanted to ask you if you looked at Frero Banbou as this one beat The Changing Man last November.....but the distance was slightly shorter & yes it is an older horse but still capable of causing an upset or do you think it's had its day ? The price looks good for an outsider and if I can get to a bookies then maybe I'll risk the huge gamble of £2 e/way at 50/1

[Onelife]

Hi Pompy, I would never let the price of a horse put me off backing it, that being said, it is that price for a reason, as judged by better form analysts than me. What I can say for certain is that it stays better than many in the field. It’s a very competitive race with several having strong claims so an EW bet may be the way to go.

The reason I’ve backed The Changing Man is that I think it’s still an improving horse.…unlike Fero who has probably reached his level, albeit a good level.

Win or lose…Keep smiling!

[Portsmouth]

At 25/1 maybe Tripoli Flyer might be an idea for an outside bet . I think a place might be possible

Looks like my suggestion Tripoli Flyer as an outsider for race 1 is now a non runner

for the 2:00 you might like to consider Only by Night as having a chance...good price 16/1 but I think the favourite Majborough will win it.

[Onelife]

Well, that was the most dramatic Champion Hurdle I have ever witnessed…the price of the first three home 25/1 - 66/1 - 150/1 probably says it all. Great achievement for the smaller trainers and what a purchase by the owner who only forked out £12k for the winner. The other good news is that the fallers live to fight another day. The other new is that the bookies have had a bonanza of a day.

Todays results

The Changing Man…2nd-7/1
Liam Swagger… 3rd- 12/1 very unlucky, lost several lengths at start.
Now is The Hour…6/1 Fell when challenging for lead two out.

Total staked £18 – Total returns £0


DAY TWO

It’s difficult to look past both Ballyburn 2.00 and Jonbon 4.00 as likely winners, but like yesterday not a betting proposition for my kind of money.

The opening race has several talented novice hurdlers to choose from but I’m going with “The Yellow Clay” who has a string of wins to its name (as do a couple of others) but has, in my opinion, beaten better opposition than the other likely contenders so carries my hesitant £5 burden.

The 2.40 race is a very open handicap but having already put up Minella Missile I’ll be hoping he can put his last ‘three’ dreadful runs behind him?

The 3.20 race is run over the cross-country course (not one of my favourite races) I shall however be having an ew bet on Roi Mage who ran a cracker in last years national. Can a 13-year-old win this race? Very doubtful, but is it beats Pompy’s donkey ‘Galvin’ then I’ll be laughing all the way to the bank.

The last of my bets, and perhaps my best chance on the day is So Scottish 4.40…not the most consistent of horses as it’s been two years since it’s last win, however, Emmit Mullins knows how to bring one to the boil and has a good record with his chasers.

Selections

!.20 The Yellow Clay £5 win
2.40 Minella Missile £10-win £2 place
3.20 Roi Mage £4-win £2 place
4.40 So Scottish £10 win

[Portsmouth]

The race with The Changing Man took 3 starts before they actually went from a standing start. The outsider I suggested " OnlybyNight " in the race before, did well to finish in second place ahead of Majborough the favourite.

Your choices were pretty good and its a shame you didn't have an each way bet as you would have got some money back.

So my choice for the first race 1:20 is Sixmilebidge at about 20/1 ....he had wind surgery last year and has seen some improvement
The New Lion would have been my bet if the odds were better

For the 2:40 race where you have Minella Missile, I was thinking of Impose Toi ....(also like Samui who runs on the flat but unlikely to win.)

For the 3:20 Roi Mage is a really good choice for a place, despite the age....I'm really not sure about Galvin for this race but I'll stick with him although I don't like the price.
I hope Jonbon wins the 4:00 (will be the favourite)

Finally my outside guess for a place in the 4:40 is Martator ....although I suspect Onelifes horse will do better.

[david63]

Total staked £18 – Total returns £0

I did better than that - Total staked £0 – Total returns £0 so by my calculations I am £18 up

[towny44]

Total staked £18 – Total returns £0

I did better than that - Total staked £0 – Total returns £0 so by my calculations I am £18 up

If all gamblers were as canny as you David, then bookmakers would be non existent. Not a bad idea though.

[Onelife]

Hi Pompy, some interesting selections there...I did look at Sixmilebridge myself so I’ll take your advice and have a £1ew saver on it.
Looking at yesterdays results I note Gavin Cromwell (trainer) had 5 runners, 3 of which got placed with one falling when challenging for the lead. He has some interesting runners today in Al Gasparo 2.40 and Vanillier 3.20 cross country event…but hey! you can’t back them all so it a case of watch and see. I note that there has been a little bit money for Minella Missile this morning.

We live in hope.

[Onelife]

Total staked £18 – Total returns £0

I did better than that - Total staked £0 – Total returns £0 so by my calculations I am £18 up

I wouldn’t mind betting that you spend more on cocktails and wine than I do on my betting…what we do have in common is that we both p*ss it down the drain.

[oldbluefox]

I share the same emotions as Keefy in following my football team - disappointment when they lose (although I am getting used to that just lately!! ) and elation when we win. The only difference is the bookies get nothing from me (for that matter neither does my club) but each to their own.

[Portsmouth]

Vanillier 3.20 cross country event…
I note that there has been a little bit money for Minella Missile this morning.

We live in hope.

Vanillier....tipped by johnny Dineen Racing Post

Minella Missile down to 28/1 with William Hill & Sky Sport ( better prices available )

I'm hoping to get to a betting shop this afternoon just to have a little flutter but I'm not sure if I'll be able to get there in time

[oldbluefox]

I've heard the horses are running in snow shoes. Is that right?

[Onelife]

I've heard the horses are running in snow shoes. Is that right?

They had an inch of snow this morning…Minella Missile ran as if it was pulling Santa’s sledge

[Portsmouth]

missed the first race but put £2 e/way on Impose Toi which I've just found out came second
Put £2 win on Galvin but he didn't do too well and was pulled up.
Changed my mind for the 4:00 and decided to put £2 win on Energumene instead of the favourite Jonbon who should still win but who knows what might happen....race starts in 2 minutes .
For the 4:40 Ive put £1 e/way on Marator & £2 e/way on General Medra

[oldbluefox]

I hope Keefy's not passing on his tipster secrets to you Portsmouth. You know what he's like!!

[Onelife]

missed the first race but put £2 e/way on Impose Toi which I've just found out came second
Put £2 win on Galvin but he didn't do too well and was pulled up.
Changed my mind for the 4:00 and decided to put £2 win on Energumene instead of the favourite Jonbon who should still win but who knows what might happen....race starts in 2 minutes .
For the 4:40 Ive put £1 e/way on Marator & £2 e/way on General Medra

Hi Pompy, Impose Toi ran a cracker...as for the rest...tomorrow's another day