Sport of Kings

[Portsmouth]

And speaking of stats.....I see that EBTs Guard is running in the 3:40 Cambridgeshire today and some of the stats seem to be Ok
Maybe a small e/way bet .....the price with Bet Fred 20/1....he must surely get in the top 3 ?
Maybe Purosangues owner will get lucky with Fort George ?

[Onelife]

EBT Guard ran a fair race finishing just outside the places….as for my donkeys, two placed , two still running….Fred will be having a drink or two on me tonight.

But what do we do…

We keep smiling.

The girls are playing well…come on England

[oldbluefox]

Not your lucky day OL. Would you like me to send you a curly wig and cowboy hat to cheer you up?

[Portsmouth]

So I thought I'd place a bet win only on an unraced 2 yr old in the 17:20 at Newmarket
I was a bit surprised it was as low as 9/2....it's Golden Orbit
As to why I backed it.....check out the owners

A good win for Golden Orbit started at 11/2

Now 33/1 for next years 1000 Guineas

A good start for the owners HM The King & HM The Queen

I think maybe to early to put a bet on for next year.....lets see how he does in his next race.
As for Illusionist.....I think I suggested that the jockey Oliver Stammers wasn't the best fit....but maybe he was riding to instructions.

[Onelife]

Not your lucky day OL. Would you like me to send you a curly wig and cowboy hat to cheer you up?

Would you mind sending a whip as well? When we eventually meet up I want to give you a good thrashing

[Onelife]

So I thought I'd place a bet win only on an unraced 2 yr old in the 17:20 at Newmarket
I was a bit surprised it was as low as 9/2....it's Golden Orbit
As to why I backed it.....check out the owners

A good win for Golden Orbit started at 11/2

Now 33/1 for next years 1000 Guineas

A good start for the owners HM The King & HM The Queen

I think maybe to early to put a bet on for next year.....lets see how he does in his next race.
As for Illusionist.....I think I suggested that the jockey Oliver Stammers wasn't the best fit....but maybe he was riding to instructions.

I see Illusionist has declarations for both Tuesday and Wednesday next week so if he runs Ill be giving him another chance. The horse had a sluggish start and from that point was always playing catch up, but as you say, I don’t think (on this occasion) the jockey gave the horse the best ride, whether that was by design I don’t know but it will be interesting if he does run next week.

As for "GOLDEN ORBIT" I don’t comment on anything that bring joy to Charlie and Cam….other than to say well done to you for backing it.

We’ve got the ARC next week so lets see if you can follow through with another winner.

ABC 12 has been sent.

[Portsmouth]

Fair enough but if Oliver keeps holding him in the rear too long then don't expect a win ( my opinion & I'm definitely Not an expert )
As for the Arc...a couple of thoughts.....If your choice ends up in a stall above 8 it's almost the kiss of death for a win so the stats say.

I was keeping an eye open for Adventure because he came 2nd to Blue Stocking last year and wasn't a bad price....but after he won that Group 1 at Longchamp he ended up as fav with Minnie Hauk and any value has gone.
So now I'm looking at Daryz as possible choice although he's never run the distance ( A big NO NO with the stats ) but his sire Sea the Stars suggests he should be alright running 1.4 miles
Can a Japanese horse win this year....not sure both horses have reasons to think about a bet on them ?

Finally ....I would value your opinion on Constitution Hill ....(you know why .. )
So he had two bad falls that may have shook him up and in his last race his trainer said at the start of the race he did something he had never done before and he could tell the horse didn't want to race and came 5th. So do you think with a good break and careful training he will get over the problem he's had and be back to being a really good horse or do you think he will not really be the same again.
He has been entered in the fighting fifth hurdle at Newcastle in November against new possible superstar the new lion.
I'm just trying to work out which way he will go and wonder if he'll get back to his old winning ways or just be more cautious jumping ?

[Onelife]

Hi Pompey, I note that Lord Bertie is declared to run on Tuesday with illusionist declared Thursday so ill be giving them both one last chance.

Stats speak volumes in a race such as the Arc so as you say the draw will be crucial as to where the winner comes from…Then throw in the ground conditions which we don’t know yet then I think it best that any bets should be left until we are in receipt of this information. I’m leaning toward MINI HAUK who hasn’t done anything wrong up to now and should go on any ground….as for the Fav ADVENTURE I’m not convinced his form stacks up to that of some of the other contenders in the field. There are a few racing pundits who are going along with you on DARYZ…. the way he finished his last race would suggest he’ll get the distance but has he the class? I’m not sure.

I don’t think there would many who would say CONSTITUTION HILL doesn’t deserve a place in racings hall of fame (even before he retires) however, there will be equal amounts wondering whether he can bounce back after two crashing falls and a lacklustre run Ireland. I personally would be a little worried as to why a normally fluent hurdler made what you might expect from a novice hurdler, not a grade 1 horse…to me it looked like he had lost his confidence and was guessing at his fences, not the kind of thing you want to see. That being said if anyone can sort him out Nicky Henderson has all the tools at his disposal. Can he win another champion hurdle…not for my money and the reason I haven’t included him in my…you know what.

[Onelife]

Hi Pompey, I was on the phone to one of my race horse owner friends this morning so popped the same question to him that you had asked me about Constitution Hill. He thinks the horse is one run/fall away from retirement. He did throw in the comment that we could end up seeing him running on the flat in a race such as the Ascot Gold Cup…. I personally can’t see that happening but whatever happens he owes the owners nothing.

[Portsmouth]

Hi Onelife, yes I have those thoughts as well....2 falls in a row when he's never fallen before must be some kind of shock to him and so like you I don't have the confidence he can make a comeback. It will be amazing if he could get back to his original winning ways but we'll have to wait & see.
As to Lord Bertie running tomorrow....It's been a while since a 5 yr old won ....watch out for the 9yr old..he might have a chance as well.

[Onelife]

I won’t be backing Lord Bertie with a whole lot of confidence but in this grade, he must have a chance, so its £6-win £4 place…I will also put it in a double with illusionist on Thursday.

Foxy should be along shortly to put the kiss of death on it

[Portsmouth]

So unlucky ! just wasn't good enough to win ...but it was his best result this year
Now it's the turn of Illusionist at Redcar on 4th Oct

I see Oisin Murphy is riding Byzantine Dream in the Arc depending on the ground & draw he could be a lively contender.

[oldbluefox]

I hate to see a grown man cry..........

[Onelife]

So unlucky ! just wasn't good enough to win ...but it was his best result this year
Now it's the turn of Illusionist at Redcar on 4th Oct

I see Oisin Murphy is riding Byzantine Dream in the Arc depending on the ground & draw he could be a lively contender.

Don’t tell foxy, but I’ve been crying my eyes out all afternoon … having only made a 40p profit on Bertie. Like you I thought Bertie ran the best race to date but yet again a sluggish start, but also having to make up 8 lengths at one stage in the race he did well to be a fast-finishing 2nd.

I’m still leaning towards Mini Hauk for the Arc but I’m pleased to see Leffard is still in the line up as when looking a couple of weeks back it looked like he’d been scratched…. if he stands his ground then he will be my EW bet… to out run his 33/1 odds.

I agree with you regarding the chances of Byzantine Dream, indeed I think his last run/win should be marked up considering he had to navigate through horses to win… going away.

[Portsmouth]

Just a quick heads up today....at Salisbury 15:17 there are two unraced RM Beckett 2yr olds running

The favourite out of those two will be Music Academy a 600,000gns Kingman filly
But I shall be watching Queens Companion wondering if the HM The King & HM The Queens filly will be able to win at 5/1

Of course Onelife won't be commenting unless she loses and then he'll be sitting in his chair with a little " I could have told you so " smirk

[Portsmouth]

Well once the price drifted to 8/1 Queens Companion was looking less likely to be a winner and only came 4th....
Pleased I never put a bet on
As for the Arc.....Onelife said he was leaning towards Minnie Hauk & she has got an excellent low draw
Also Onelifes suggestion for a place Leffard ( respected ) has also got a really good low draw but price with the big 3 is now only 25/1
Daryz, (one I mentioned) had also got a low draw and will be my each way bet but I think one of the low priced favourites should win

[Onelife]

Just a quick heads up today....at Salisbury 15:17 there are two unraced RM Beckett 2yr olds running

The favourite out of those two will be Music Academy a 600,000gns Kingman filly
But I shall be watching Queens Companion wondering if the HM The King & HM The Queens filly will be able to win at 5/1

Of course Onelife won't be commenting unless she loses and then he'll be sitting in his chair with a little " I could have told you so " smirk

Presumably named after the “Queens Companion” both losers but one more than the other one would expect.

[Onelife]

Well once the price drifted to 8/1 Queens Companion was looking less likely to be a winner and only came 4th....
Pleased I never put a bet on
As for the Arc.....Onelife said he was leaning towards Minnie Hauk & she has got an excellent low draw
Also Onelifes suggestion for a place Leffard ( respected ) has also got a really good low draw but price with the big 3 is now only 25/1
Daryz, (one I mentioned) had also got a low draw and will be my each way bet but I think one of the low priced favourites should win

It will take an exceptional horse to win from the higher drawn horses, especially as most of the fancied horses have been lucky with the draw.

[Onelife]

With the going around the country sure to be testing caution is perhaps the best betting proposition for Saturdays Bankers.

Ascot 3.35 “Purosangue” …one of which I’m currently out of pocket to the tune of around £50 so here’s hoping for a change of luck. I’m sure the trainer must be thinking “where do we go with this one to get him over the line” so stepping up to 7f might just play to his advantage especially given what could be a slower pace due to distance and ground…if it does pan out this way then I can see “Purosangue” pouncing late to make Keefy a very happy chappie.

Ascot 3.35 Purosangue £8 win with a saver on Jumby £1ew

Ascot 4.10 Dream Composer £4-win £1 place

…not a horse in the greatest of form but on a going day has the form to be thereabouts…. whether it will be tomorrow is another story.

Turning to Sundays Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe I’m backing two…

3.5…Mini Hauk £5 win

Leffard £ 5-win £2 place

[Portsmouth]

Hi Onelife, I hope you made your bet in advance on Purosangue....I saw it at 12/1 yesterday and with 3 non-runners it's now down to 9/1
looking at the opposition if I was making a bet I would be looking at a place for Purosangue more than to be the winner & talking of bets I'm pleased to say that I ( at last ) got my winnings yesterday for that place with Purosangue 16/1 in the Gold Cup .
I note that Dream Composer 16:10 won the same race in 2022 and at 20/1 is a good price if he gets in the top 3

I've already made my bet on Daryz for the Arc .....I'm pondering about copying you and making a small e/way bet on Leffard at 33/1 and with the good draw it does look tempting but I'm also considering Quisisana at 16/1 for a place.

[Onelife]

Well, following on my good form Purosangue ran a stinker and will now I suspect be put away till next year…Dream Composer ran a better race than most of his recent runs but like Purosangue didn’t manage a place.

Looking forward to watching the ARC tomorrow 3.5.

[Onelife]

GET IN Pompey

BRILLIANT RACE…BRILLIANT TIPPING…GO COLLECT

[Portsmouth]

Yes ......very very happy ....the French raider stole it . I'm pleased I didn't bother to make a place bet on the other two that I mentioned....just kept the faith in Daryz
Minnie Hauk was a tad unlucky and the rest of the field was at least 5 lengths away
Minnie Hauk has been entered for two of the Ascot races on Oct 18th and some of those who ran today are also entered but will she run ?

[oldbluefox]

I think I am going to have to re-consider who is the forum's tipster before my annual flutter on the Grand National.

[Onelife]

I think I am going to have to re-consider who is the forum's tipster before my annual flutter on the Grand National.

Oh goody, you can now start ruining Pompey’s “tipster” reputation like you’ve done mine for the past 6 months.

Not one to blow my own trumpet but rest assured when I hit form again you will hear it loud and clear in those cold damp sodden hills of Cumbria.