Post Brexit: the reality

[Not so ancient mariner]

It's far to early to make an informed judgement one way or the other. Opinions are two a penny, but facts are very thin on the ground.

[oldbluefox]

One thing's for sure. Whatever happens to the economy, to trade or our relationship with Europe, Brexit will be blamed irrespective of any other outside influences and there seems to be a desire from some quarters to shout down Britain in order to say 'I told you so!'

[Dark Knight]

It is far too early to tell if project fear has any lasting basis, but at the minute many important indicators are going in the wrong direction - however we are only just 1 month in; we have not yet triggered Article 50; and we are several years (maybe even a decade) away from actual brexit (and that is assuming there are no serious legal challenges) - only then will we be able to see what the true impact is.

On the other hand we do know for a fact that many in the brexit camp were fooled by a systematic campaign purely based on lies and misinformation. It is quite amusing that the same people who spent time talking, tweeting, facebooking, chatting about immigration, costs, the law process etc. before the referendum, now seem to be pinning their reasons on even vaguer concepts rather than admit they had been sucked in by the lies.

Up to now we have had project ignorance and June 23rd will go down in history as 'ignorance day'. In a few years time we will have the facts and from that I am sure we will knowledgeably and intelligently determine what to do, quite possibly leading to Independence day.

But surely, Kendhni, you're not suggesting that the OP's celebrations are in any way based on ignorance?

2 points Kaymar
firstly ,as usual your assumptions regarding my supposed my celebrations are incorrect I have never said which way I voted, nor will I and that I merely reported the salient points as thing stand today
so whilst it is early days, the signs are positive and going forward we should have little to fear, so rather than let the "educated " few tell us how we should and shouldn't have voted and how ignorant they think the rest of the country is, lets accept the chance to be masters of our own destiny and stop listening to few people who thing they know it all, you never know Kaymar , you might learn something rather than being a sheep and following the herd

[Silver_Shiney]

the fact of the matter is, no-one knows what the facts of the matter are.

[Kendhni]

It is far too early to tell if project fear has any lasting basis, but at the minute many important indicators are going in the wrong direction - however we are only just 1 month in; we have not yet triggered Article 50; and we are several years (maybe even a decade) away from actual brexit (and that is assuming there are no serious legal challenges) - only then will we be able to see what the true impact is.

On the other hand we do know for a fact that many in the brexit camp were fooled by a systematic campaign purely based on lies and misinformation. It is quite amusing that the same people who spent time talking, tweeting, facebooking, chatting about immigration, costs, the law process etc. before the referendum, now seem to be pinning their reasons on even vaguer concepts rather than admit they had been sucked in by the lies.

Up to now we have had project ignorance and June 23rd will go down in history as 'ignorance day'. In a few years time we will have the facts and from that I am sure we will knowledgeably and intelligently determine what to do, quite possibly leading to Independence day.

But surely, Kendhni, you're not suggesting that the OP's celebrations are in any way based on ignorance?

The whole referendum was based on keeping the population misinformed, misled and ignorant.
We know that the entire brexit campaign was built on lies and nobody has the slightest clue what remaining in the EU may mean for the future - the only thing we know for certain is that the UK will not be part of shaping the Europe of the future. However, while I consider the referendum on the 23rd of June to be an affront to "democracy", I am generally in favour of the result for no other reason than it means both the EU and the brexit camps have to actually start doing a bit of work and putting their money and reputations where their mouths are - no more hiding behind lies and a gullible public.

Maybe once we get the facts we can put 'ignorance day' behind us and, if it is the better option (based on evidence), look forward to 'Independence day' or a relationship with Europe that suits us more. WHo knows?

[Kendhni]

One thing's for sure. Whatever happens to the economy, to trade or our relationship with Europe, Brexit will be blamed irrespective of any other outside influences and there seems to be a desire from some quarters to shout down Britain in order to say 'I told you so!'

Sorry OBF, but trying to line up the excuses before the event does not wash.
We have voted for brexit and the government will be going down that route, at the minute the economy is being totally driven by brexit and, I would suggest, that the government (whoever it may have been) is currently only on it for a ride - we will be going through a period of 'reactive' politics with the government trying to stabilise it one way or the other.

That includes both the good and the bad. Short term it is expected to be some moderation in the markets - lets face it, there will be a lot of money to be made in the UK as companies try to get their slice of the brexit pie, so short term decisions to retain presence or invest actually make sense. The real test of brexit will come in 2-10 years once we actually leave (assuming that is the path taken); negotiate our trade agreements (remembering that we have no skills in trade negotiations and are negotiating from a point of weakness); and stand on our own two feet.

So irrespective of any excuses, our economy (and others) will, for the foreseeable future, be driven by the brexit decision.

[Peter D]

Seeing as Brexit is getting blamed for everything I would like to post this.

In about 4 billions years time, give or take a billion, our sun is going to expand and explode and fry this planet we call earth to a cinder. Can I now apologies as a Brexiter for causing this catastrophe and ruining the future of all those around at that time. Sorry.....

I feel a lot better now.

[Kendhni]

Actually Peter since this planet is within the expansion zone of the sun so it is more than likely the planet will burn up long before the sun explodes .... but I would be more inclined to think that brexit and remain would be equally responsible in that scenario ... the difference is that remain would have warned it was going to happen (3 million years previous) and brexit would have said it was an impossibility, right up to the point of crispy deep fried earth (and only that way because Scotland would be unaffected and they like to deep fry anything that doesn't move).

[towny44]

The latest doom laden predictions results from the Purchasing Managers index dropping from 53 to 47.7 (or 47 as rounded down by the Beeb) which, according to the BBC news has been one of the more accurate barometers of economic activity.
Now I am not sure where the Beeb gets its data, but I well remember when I was working and needed to read the FT to keep abreast of the economic situation, they regularly ridiculed this index as being routinely inaccurate.

[oldbluefox]

The whole referendum was based on keeping the population misinformed, misled and ignorant.

Most of these were the scare tactics coming from the Remain group.

We know that the entire brexit campaign was built on lies....

Perhaps you could elaborate here because I have found difficulty in tracing these 'lies' which the Remain group keep harping on about. Of course the Remain camp were entirely truthful were they?

and nobody has the slightest clue what remaining in the EU may mean for the future - the only thing we know for certain is that the UK will not be part of shaping the Europe of the future.

UK will be shaping its own future rather than being the lapdog of a failing institution. It will be trading with the rest of the world without the restrictions of the EU for starters.

However, while I consider the referendum on the 23rd of June to be an affront to "democracy",

This is a common ailment caught by any group which loses and may have been caught from Scottish Independents led by Mrs Krankie.

I am generally in favour of the result for no other reason than it means both the EU and the brexit camps have to actually start doing a bit of work and putting their money and reputations where their mouths are

True and probably why Cameron, Osbourne & Co were hoping upon hope the British public would be gullible enough to accept the status quo and they could continue in their own cosy way - no more hiding behind lies and a gullible public.

[oldbluefox]

at the minute the economy is being totally driven by brexit

Not according to Europe Economics' Andrew Lilico:
"Although business confidence dropped to an 18-month low, the overall pace of economic growth was in line with pre-Brexit trends, and employment across the eurozone rose.
The optimistic outlook is in line with comments made by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, who said on Thursday that Europe's financial markets had "weathered" the uncertainty caused by the vote.
Europe Economics' Andrew Lilico, who argued during the referendum campaign that leaving the EU would be beneficial for the UK in the long term, told the BBC the PMI data was "no surprise", and that it "doesn't tell us much about what Brexit's longer term impact will be".
Mr Lilico said he always expected a short-term reaction, and those who voted to leave, "expected a short-term slowdown too".
The downturn, he added, was "associated with risks in the global economy," as well as Brexit".
BBC News 22 July 2016

Nothing new here which we didn't already expect or realise but clearly not everything which happens to the economy should be laid at the Brexit door despite what the Remainers would have us believe.

[oldbluefox]

I now see Jeremy Corbyn is adjusting his stance on invoking Article 50. He 'did not mean it should be invoked on Friday morning and we should rush over to Brussels and start negotiating things away' despite saying 'The British people have made their decision. We must respect that result and Article 50 has to be invoked now'.

Funny how they can say one thing one minute and something totally different the next.

[Golden Princess]

I still feel that it purely depends on which news items from whatever source you choose to look at.

[screwy]

This is all down to opinions........opinions are like arseholes, everyone has one and usually sh*t comes out of them.

[Kendhni]

Most of these were the scare tactics coming from the Remain group.

I agree, while both sides ran a project fear it mostly came from the remain camp

Perhaps you could elaborate here because I have found difficulty in tracing these 'lies' which the Remain group keep harping on about.

You only have to look at the comments made by the brexit campaign leaders Nigel and Boris as they started back stepping. The most obvious examples
- Suggesting that brexit would mean more controls leading to a reduction in immigration. Once trade agreements are put in place they may include free flow of citizens between those countries and the UK - one has to consider on which way the traffic is likely to flow in a, for example, a trade agreement between China and the UK.

- "Let's give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week" - this quote, which is taken verbatim from one of the main brexit poster backdrops, is contemptuous at best but is probably the one that fooled most people. First we do not and never have given the EU £350million per week. The actual net payment is about £245million per week (£12.9bn per year) or about 0.65% of GDP - but after rebates, grants and other funding we receive from the EU we still pay about £6.5bn per annum (about 0.325% of GDP). Secondly it is estimated that we will need anywhere from 10-30K more paper pushers to negotiate, monitor, regulate and legislate in relation to new trade agreements (which may or may not cost us). So in the end there may be something extra for the NHS but it is tiny fraction of the fantasy figure of £350million per week.

- "there have been 72 occasions in the Council of Ministers where the United Kingdom has opposed a particular measure. Of those 72 occasions, we have been successful precisely 0 times and we have lost 72 times. That is a fact." - another way of presenting this fact is "there have been 2466 occasions in the Council of Ministers where the United Kingdom has been for a particular measure. Of those 2466 occasions, we have been successful precisely 2466 times and we have lost 0 times. That is a fact.". In addition the count of 72 is actually a lie in itself -there have only been 56 occasions that the UK has opposed. Nobody is quite sure where the other 16 come from but it is thought that they scraped the barrel and included some measures that never even made it to the council.

- Suggesting that the EU passes laws in the UK - it doesn't, the EU issues directives, we create our own laws to satisfy those directives and there have been many great directives in relation to working practices, equality and non-discrimination - hence why the UK agreed with the council on 95% of its measures.

Of course the Remain camp were entirely truthful were they?

In some cases correct but in most of what project fear was about we will find out if their warnings were grounded or not over the next 2-10 years. That is why it is silly trying to draw any conclusions at this point of time

UK will be shaping its own future rather than being the lapdog of a failing institution. It will be trading with the rest of the world without the restrictions of the EU for starters.

The UK already was shaping its own future and in the current global economy it was doing a very good job of it. Without doubt the EU is currently going through a rough time, but is it failing? The UK may be closer to failure and a break up than the EU.

Also the UK could face even more restrictions as it not only has to meet EU regulations for trade (assuming we want to continue trading within the EU) but may also have to meet regulations from other partners in relation to trading. Until the trade agreements are created and put in place we do not know what they may or may not contain.

This is a common ailment caught by any group which loses and may have been caught from Scottish Independents led by Mrs Krankie.

I have tried not to get involved in pettiness and if you don't mind I will continue to do so. What I will say is that it may have been abused, but democracy and freedom of speech was not killed off on June 23rd. It took Farage more than 20 years of campaigning and abuse before he convinced the UK that it should have a second referendum in relation to Europe - who is to say how long it will be before there is a third? Or even if that will be before or after actual brexit?

True and probably why Cameron, Osbourne & Co were hoping upon hope the British public would be gullible enough to accept the status quo and they could continue in their own cosy way - no more hiding behind lies and a gullible public.

Cameron obviously misjudged the sentiment in the UK and was relying on history saying that when there are a couple of equal opportunities the likelihood is that people will go with the status quo - his biggest mistake though was trying to keep the British public ill informed about the EU. But I agree with your last part, as far as brexit is concerned, May has put the brexiteers front of stage and they, more than anybody, can no longer hide behind their lies and a gullible public.


All-in-all though I am very positive about the future ... but then I hold dual citizenship.

[brillo]

The Brexiteers have sold our children up the river without a paddle !!!

[oldbluefox]

Thank you for your responses Ken. Only time will tell who is right and who is wrong but I remain optimistic about the long term future, more so than had we remained in the EU.

[Kendhni]

at the minute the economy is being totally driven by brexit

Not according to Europe Economics' Andrew Lilico:
"Although business confidence dropped to an 18-month low, the overall pace of economic growth was in line with pre-Brexit trends, and employment across the eurozone rose.
The optimistic outlook is in line with comments made by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, who said on Thursday that Europe's financial markets had "weathered" the uncertainty caused by the vote.
Europe Economics' Andrew Lilico, who argued during the referendum campaign that leaving the EU would be beneficial for the UK in the long term, told the BBC the PMI data was "no surprise", and that it "doesn't tell us much about what Brexit's longer term impact will be".
Mr Lilico said he always expected a short-term reaction, and those who voted to leave, "expected a short-term slowdown too".
The downturn, he added, was "associated with risks in the global economy," as well as Brexit".
BBC News 22 July 2016

Nothing new here which we didn't already expect or realise but clearly not everything which happens to the economy should be laid at the Brexit door despite what the Remainers would have us believe.

That is why I started off by saying it is too early to draw any conclusions about any changes either pro or anti brexit.
Various financial leaders will try to put out comments to calm the markets and try to bring stability but the underlying indicators in the last month, including revision of growth figures, are in the wrong direction ... however I still believe they are within the tolerances of a fluid market. So, as I said, in an earlier post, at the minute it is impossible to draw any conclusions (no matter who you are).

But I maintain that the main driving factor of the economy in this country and others, over the next 2-10 years, will be the brexit decision (I have no idea if that is going to be good or bad). Yes there will be other driving factors, but brexit will be the main driver.


The funny bit is that before the referendum the brexit camp was lining up its excuses for failure and what would happen if it was a close call and "that would not be the end of it", they even put up a petition fora rerun of the referendum. I think the brexit camp was taken as much by surprise as anyone else that they won but, because they also fear the road ahead (they have no idea what it means), it is amusing that some that supported Brexit again feel the need to line up excuses for failure. This British defeatest attitude has to stop, we now need to man-up and take control of the situation to see how we can fit in with rest of the world in a post brexit era ... there will be good times and bad times ahead.

[towny44]

The Brexiteers have sold our children up the river without a paddle !!!

I always thought the negative expression was "sold down the river", up river is generally more rural and genteel and a much more pleasant place to be.

[Kendhni]

The Brexiteers have sold our children up the river without a paddle !!!

I think that is an unfair conclusion, people are often scared of change but in any situation we-are-where-we-are and we have to move forward from that point. I hope the country made the right decision however the one thing we know for sure is that nobody really knew what they were voting for.

[barney]

Our children should have a more secure future with better prospects outside of the eu. Think of the poor Greek and Spanish youngsters with 50 per cent unemployment. Think of the Italian youngsters with their economy about to nose dive. Why do you think that millions of eastern European youngsters are flocking here ? No paddle ? I'd say they will have a full set of oars.

[Kendhni]

Thank you for your responses Ken. Only time will tell who is right and who is wrong but I remain optimistic about the long term future, more so than had we remained in the EU.

I agree totally OBF, I won't say which way I voted but even going into the polling booth I wasn't sure but, in the end, it all boiled down to a single comment from one of the main camp leaders that made me put my 'X' in the relevant box.

I am a born optimist and look forward to seeing how all this develops and ultimately what brexit is actually going to mean. I still think the EU may come back with a counter-offer but hopefully by that point we will have done due diligence and understand properly both sides of the equation and can weigh up the future at that point.

[barney]

They already have Ken if today's papers are to be believed. A seven year freeze on migration in return for us keep funding their social project. I think brexit means out not some fudged compromise. They could have offered that to Cameron and maybe got a different result. What it tells me is that the eu doesn't have the whip hand as much as some may think.

[Kendhni]

They already have Ken if today's papers are to be believed. A seven year freeze on migration in return for us keep funding their social project. I think brexit means out not some fudged compromise. They could have offered that to Cameron and maybe got a different result. What it tells me is that the eu doesn't have the whip hand as much as some may think.

Thanks Barney, I haven't read the news today. If true that is an interesting offer but too late to the table.

When I think about this I generally think of the Irish referendum. They voted 'no' twice before getting an offer that they felt was acceptable - and there was a lot of 'there is nothing more to offer' between votes. When you think that Ireland is a net receiver from the EU it would seem strange that the EU would not make a couple of counter-offers to the UK, a net contributor - despite all the hot air being blown.

[oldbluefox]

As a net contributor to the EU it was in their interests to address some of the issues we were raising. In fairness to Cameron he did visit EU leaders to try and thrash out an agreement but was held back by their own self interests (understandably). What he came back with was a weak compromise which meant very little.

Add to the mix there are certain parts of the country which suffer the consequences of our membership of the EU but do not share the benefits.