Post Brexit: the reality

[Silver_Shiney]

Let us not forget that many transactions are done automatically by computer. If a trader somewhere decides to sell a big stock, the programme has, in the past, been known to react adversely, setting off a chain reaction. This is what happened during the 90s, when interest rates shot up by several points in an afternoon.

The global economy is soon to go into meltdown, this has been expected for a long time - before there was talk of a referendum, so we can't blame it on Brexit.

The referendum was settled on a small majority - but it was a majority. As I have said before, had it gone the other way Remainder would not countenance calls from immature Brexiteers calling for a rematch, and rightly so. Yet I am still to see confirmation from anyone from the losing side confirming this. I am convinced that voting to leave is in this country's best interest. If I am wrong, we have still voted so to do, so as DK rightly says, we must pull together and make the best of it.

[barney]

There is a train of thought that the constant doom mongering by Cameron, Osborne, Carney et al before the vote has attributed to this blip.

If you talk something down, it will probably go down.

Equally as always in the past, it will inevitably recover.

Sit tight, hold on to your hat and Brexit!

Everyone knows that long term, it is the right decision.

The EU is a dying swan, eventually to become a dead duck.

If you want some real info, research what is actually going on in various European countries at the moment, particularly financially, and you'll think that we are top of the class.

[barney]

A quick bit of research shows

Public debt to GDP in Euro Zone Countries.

Greece 179%, Youth unemployment 52%,

Italy 134%, Youth unemployment 40%

Portugal 130%, Youth unemployment 32%,

Belgium 106%, Youth unemployment 24%

Cyprus 108%, Youth unemployment 32%,

Spain 101%, Youth unemployment 46%

Ireland 99%, Youth unemployment 20%

France 97%, Youth unemployment 26%

Germany 71.2% Youth unemployment 7% Germany Growth 2015 = 1.7%

UK 89.2% Youth unemployment 12% UK growth 2015 = 2.3%

IMF says EU on brink of collapse, while euro currency may have to be scrapped

THE FUTURE of euro currency and the entire EU project looks unsustainable without major change, according to a damning review by the International Monetary Fund and renowned economists.

[Mervyn and Trish]

And the Eurozone interest rate is 0%.

And watching Mark Carnage last night he reckoned 250,000 jobs might be lost (not that his past record on predictions is much to shout about). However if he is right, if we can reduce net immigration by even 100,000 a year (about 30%) that's either 100,000 people signing on for benefits here or 100,000 fewer taking employment here. If it's the former it's very good news. If it's the latter the negative Brexit effect is gone in less than three years as extra jobs are available for those already here.

Yes Brexit will bring some short term pain but it's the longer term I voted for.

[barney]

Part of the problem could well be that the Government (Cam & Co) had made absolutely no plans for an OUT vote.

That is reckless at best and bordering on gross incompetence.

There could have only been two outcomes and they totally ignored one of them.

Some had said that the Brexit campaign had no plan. The reality is that they never needed a plan. They were a pressure group of different individuals with the same aim.
It was never up to them to sort it out afterwards, that is the elected Governments job.

I believe that the Government had the same attitude with the Scottish Referendum and got away with it.
This time they got caught with their trousers down and subsequently legged it.

I distinctly remember Cameron saying that to leave the EU would make us quitters and HE was no quitter.
What was the first thing he did?
QUIT!

Shame on the man. History will judge him badly.

Invoke article 50 and get on with the business of leaving

[david63]

And watching Mark Carnage last night he reckoned 250,000 jobs might be lost

Would that then take unemployment over 7% so that he does not have to raise interest rates?

[anniec]

Part of the problem could well be that the Government (Cam & Co) had made absolutely no plans for an OUT vote.

That is reckless at best and bordering on gross incompetence.

There could have only been two outcomes and they totally ignored one of them.

Some had said that the Brexit campaign had no plan. The reality is that they never needed a plan. They were a pressure group of different individuals with the same aim.
It was never up to them to sort it out afterwards, that is the elected Governments job.

I believe that the Government had the same attitude with the Scottish Referendum and got away with it.
This time they got caught with their trousers down and subsequently legged it.

I distinctly remember Cameron saying that to leave the EU would make us quitters and HE was no quitter.
What was the first thing he did?
QUIT!

Shame on the man. History will judge him badly.

Invoke article 50 and get on with the business of leaving

According to Nick Robinson, who asked him the question fairly recently, he had no plan B.

[Silver_Shiney]

Part of the problem could well be that the Government (Cam & Co) had made absolutely no plans for an OUT vote.

In fairness, the Brexiters appear to have made no plans for an out vote either. But, then again, how many people actually expected that result? I certainly didn't, though I'm very pleased about it.

[oldbluefox]

Part of the problem could well be that the Government (Cam & Co) had made absolutely no plans for an OUT vote.

That is reckless at best and bordering on gross incompetence.

There could have only been two outcomes and they totally ignored one of them.

Some had said that the Brexit campaign had no plan. The reality is that they never needed a plan. They were a pressure group of different individuals with the same aim.
It was never up to them to sort it out afterwards, that is the elected Governments job.

I believe that the Government had the same attitude with the Scottish Referendum and got away with it.
This time they got caught with their trousers down and subsequently legged it.

I distinctly remember Cameron saying that to leave the EU would make us quitters and HE was no quitter.
What was the first thing he did?
QUIT!

Shame on the man. History will judge him badly.

Invoke article 50 and get on with the business of leaving

[barney]

Part of the problem could well be that the Government (Cam & Co) had made absolutely no plans for an OUT vote.

In fairness, the Brexiters appear to have made no plans for an out vote either. But, then again, how many people actually expected that result? I certainly didn't, though I'm very pleased about it.

But as I said S_S, the Leave campaign were a rag tag of Tory, Labour & Ukip with a few others tagged on.

They were a pressure group, arguing to change Government policy.

It was never up to them to implement it unless they were in Government.

If Johnson or Gove or Leadsom had of accidently ended up as being PM then it would have been down to them but Dave clearly said that he would stay on whatever. I remember him saying it. I am no quitter he said.

So with the smug Guadianistas whinging on about Brexit with no plan, they are whinging to the wrong people.

How can any protest group know what the books look like etc?
It's the same as asking to opposition to form a budget without knowing where the money is.

Dave made two HUGE errors, firstly calling it, secondly losing it.

However, I don't think May has her heart in it and we'll still be talking Brexit this time next year.
She might be hoping people just forget about it eventually.

[david63]

Dave made two HUGE errors, firstly calling it, secondly losing it.

I don't think Dave lost it - I think that it was Corbyn who lost it. I believe that had Corbyn stood "shoulder to shoulder" with CMD then the outcome would have been different.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Dave could have helped by getting a decent new deal from the EU rather than that worthless package he came back with. I started as an out vote but was willing to be convinced. But there was nothing because the EU along with CMD completely misjudged the mood and concerns of the public.

[barney]

An excellent piece in today's Guardian, dispelling the myth that Brexiteers were predominantly uncouth, backward Northeners.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... exit-myths

Worth a read.

[towny44]

An interesting article Barney but she only scratched the veneer of why people voted to leave. I recognised little bits of myself in her ponderings, but like most metropolitans she still seems to link sovereignty with little Englanders, probably because she is who she is, and that's the main problem I have with the ruling elite, or whatever other sobriquet you want to give them, they just don't understand the average voter.

[barney]

You're absolutely right John, they actually have no idea about life outside of their bubble.

They seem to think that if you have a huge mortgage and are credit carded up to the hilt, you are somehow intellectually superior.

This 'thicko' managed to finish his mortgage aged 50 and has never had a loan in his life.

I now live a pretty good life but no one has ever given me anything and I certainly don't feel 'privileged' because I've been astute and taken care during my life.

Some of the comments underneath truly take your breath away.

One said that leaving the EU was equivalent to putting A GUN TO YOUR HEAD and pulling the trigger

What sad, deluded people.

[Dark Knight]

Nice to see we are all surviving the "end of civilisation" as was touted by those that lost
has anyone seen any real negative effects of the exit, as opposed to looking at cows entrails and reading tea leaves. I for one haven't really seen anything, unless a small fluctuation in the exchange rate counts??

[qbman1]

The only major change I have noticed is the absence of QBob from posting on here

[Silver_Shiney]

Looking at the exchange rates for USD, AUD and EUR (the only three I'm interested in at this time), I wouldn't say it was a "small fluctuation", but as rates go up and down all the time, so what?

[johnds]

Nice to see we are all surviving the "end of civilisation" as was touted by those that lost
has anyone seen any real negative effects of the exit, as opposed to looking at cows entrails and reading tea leaves. I for one haven't really seen anything, unless a small fluctuation in the exchange rate counts??

On the other hand - positive results

I think our post-Brexit Olympic results have been stunning

Yes I know it's ridiculous but no more so than many of the remainer's portents of doom

[barney]

My wife works in a small tea rooms in a village nearby, and a customer complained that the baguettes were smaller that normal.

She blamed Brexit and got away with it

Bloody French replied her customer !

[Mervyn and Trish]

Currency rate fluctuations, while significant, are all to do with people gambling on what they think might happen rather than any evidence of what will happen. So let's see where we are in a few years time. I suspect no worse, and maybe better, than where we would have been had we voted to stay on the sinking ship.

[Not so ancient mariner]

I think our post-Brexit Olympic results have been stunning

Yes I know it's ridiculous but no more so than many of the remainer's portents of doom

Good yes, but approximately in line with the projected target published long before the Brexit result was published.

So: - No change

[Stephen]

Hit button 50 and get on with it.

[Silver_Shiney]

Hit button 50 and get on with it.

Absolutely

[Mervyn and Trish]

Yes go go go. The most damaging thing is uncertainty. Let's get through that and build our independent future.