Brexit

[Onelife]

I hadnt even thought about the bread/rolls.

We havent even left yet and things are looking bad. How long will this go on for? And for what?

I've had a bread maker for about 3 years, and already make many of my loaves, rolls and pizza bases, so I'm stocking up on bread flour and yeast. Even if there's a deal, there's no guarantee that everything will run completely smoothly from 'day 1', so I intend to have a month's worth of food in the house, so I don't have to go to the shops unless necessary. If a month's worth of food isn't sufficient, then we'll be totally screwed anyway.

I know the 'jolly boys' on this thread will guffaw and hoot and dig each other in the ribs at my actions, but I couldn't give a stuff what they think. I'm doing what I think is necessary. I hope I'm wrong about this, but I've seen and heard nothing recently to give me cause for hope.

If I'm right and the Jolly Boys are wrong, I hope they'll be man enough to accept the 'sh*t show they backed, and own their part in it, and not look to blame other people.

I'm speaking much more bluntly than I would normally, but I think the time has come for plain speaking.

I'm not sure but I think Gill means you Onelife

I don't think Gill was including me in that statement Stephen . ...l'm the one who gave Gill the idea about stocking up her freezer with Bread rolls etc...always helpful me!

Obviously, l don't want to see our country go through hard times but if this is the consequence of Brexit then so be it....l voted for a independent future for this generation and the ones that follow.

Within a few months of us leaving the rumbling within the EU will be heard loud and clear.....We need more money will be the rallying cry from those who have been sponging off the rest of us......we'll see how much bread is on the table when the EU have to cough up the dough!

P.s l know where you can get some cheap bread makers if anyone is intrested?

[oldbluefox]

OK the benefits of Brexit
1. the ability to control and make our own laws, without interference

We do. The government has retained sovereignty throughout our membership, according to the governments own white paper.
Can you give any examples of of our laws being interfered with?

2. the ability to control our own immigration policy, without interference

The rules on EU immigration are much tighter than implemented by our government. The EU has not interfered.- see point 1.

3. the ability to strike trade agreements with other countries without interference

Please no! Disgraced former defence minister Liam Fox has already proved the easiest deal in history is not. This government wouldn't know how to deal a pack of cards.

4. the ability to control our taxation money and spend where we see fit, without interference

We do. That is why we have a Chancellor of the Exchequer, that is what he does.

That's a start.

That's no more than propaganda.

Some may be happy to see old folks homes close while we subsidised road schemes to Malta and Slovakia.
I don't know, but I know that I'm not happy about giving the EU the sums of money that we do with the hope of getting some back

You still don't know how the EU works or what it is for, do you? Perhaps you are happy to have had the benefit of it for 40 years, but just want to stop others having the same benefits.

All of this being so, why do we need to be spending so much to belong to the EU? From this perspective we don't need it. Are we paying the bill for the EU jolly boys to up sticks and go off on a jolly to Strasburg every month?

[Jack Staff]

All of this being so, why do we need to be spending so much to belong to the EU? From this perspective we don't need it. Are we paying the bill for the EU jolly boys to up sticks and go off on a jolly to Strasburg every month?

Our membership fee is tiny. Look at your tax pie chart, 1.1% if memory serves.
It is our payment for our market stall. Without a stall, how does a trading country trade? - We will become that spiv selling out of a suitcase.

Talk to France about Strasbourg. They are an old colonial country with ideas above their station, thinking the EU should do whatever it wants, but times are changing and that anachronism will change because sensible countries will tell them to stop being silly, or they they could flounce off in a tizz, leaving their nose behind. Which is better?

[Gill W]

I hadnt even thought about the bread/rolls.

We havent even left yet and things are looking bad. How long will this go on for? And for what?

I've had a bread maker for about 3 years, and already make many of my loaves, rolls and pizza bases, so I'm stocking up on bread flour and yeast. Even if there's a deal, there's no guarantee that everything will run completely smoothly from 'day 1', so I intend to have a month's worth of food in the house, so I don't have to go to the shops unless necessary. If a month's worth of food isn't sufficient, then we'll be totally screwed anyway.

I know the 'jolly boys' on this thread will guffaw and hoot and dig each other in the ribs at my actions, but I couldn't give a stuff what they think. I'm doing what I think is necessary. I hope I'm wrong about this, but I've seen and heard nothing recently to give me cause for hope.

If I'm right and the Jolly Boys are wrong, I hope they'll be man enough to accept the 'sh*t show they backed, and own their part in it, and not look to blame other people.

I'm speaking much more bluntly than I would normally, but I think the time has come for plain speaking.

I'm not sure but I think Gill means you Onelife

I don't think Gill was including me in that statement Stephen . ...l'm the one who gave Gill the idea about stocking up her freezer with Bread rolls etc...always helpful me!

Obviously, l don't want to see our country go through hard times but if this is the consequence of Brexit then so be it....l voted for a independent future for this generation and the ones that follow.

Within a few months of us leaving the rumbling within the EU will be heard loud and clear.....We need more money will be the rallying cry from those who have been sponging off the rest of us......we'll see how much bread is on the table when the EU have to cough up the dough!

P.s l know where you can get some cheap bread makers if anyone is intrested?

Nah, I was making my plans long before you said you were stocking your freezer.

Be thankful you can afford to do it. If the hard times you mention do come to pass, the ones at the bottom of the heap will be the ones to suffer most, as always.

[screwy]

To listen to some people on here makes me wonder how they ever got through life,obviously mamby pambied by the EU.! You need to stop your doom mongering, roll your sleeves up, accept whats happening and get on with it.Yes we import around 2/3rds of our wheat from not only the EU but also from Canada, Britain also exports wheat to the EU,around 80%. Our farmers are going to have to go back to what their forefathers did, grow more crops and not sit back and take subsidies for growing nothing....Not all farmers i may add.Thwe Govt are going to have to assist in this. I'm not saying all will be Rosy but for goodness sake..!!! As an Island nation we have traded with the world for generation after generation and will continue to do so.

Hopefully we wont have to take part in Eurovision anymore...

[oldbluefox]

All of this being so, why do we need to be spending so much to belong to the EU? From this perspective we don't need it. Are we paying the bill for the EU jolly boys to up sticks and go off on a jolly to Strasburg every month?

Our membership fee is tiny. Look at your tax pie chart, 1.1% if memory serves.
It is our payment for our market stall. Without a stall, how does a trading country trade? - We will become that spiv selling out of a suitcase.
I don't call £8.6 billion 'tiny' just to belong to a market stall

Talk to France about Strasbourg. They are an old colonial country with ideas above their station, thinking the EU should do whatever it wants, but times are changing and that anachronism will change because sensible countries will tell them to stop being silly, or they they could flounce off in a tizz, leaving their nose behind. Which is better?

And pigs might fly.
Of course the EU bureaucrats will never change it. How else would they stock up their cellars on cheap French plonk?

[Ray Scully]

Our membership fee is tiny. Look at your tax pie chart, 1.1% if memory serves.
It is our payment for our market stall. Without a stall, how does a trading country trade? - We will become that spiv selling out of a suitcase.

Far less than could be gained by the Exchequer with a sensible tax policy for those folk with substantial private pensions. Contributions to which where funded from tax free income. Many of whom who now also represent a sizeable cost to our health service.

[Gill W]

To listen to some people on here makes me wonder how they ever got through life,obviously mamby pambied by the EU.! You need to stop your doom mongering, roll your sleeves up, accept whats happening and get on with it.Yes we import around 2/3rds of our wheat from not only the EU but also from Canada, Britain also exports wheat to the EU,around 80%. Our farmers are going to have to go back to what their forefathers did, grow more crops and not sit back and take subsidies for growing nothing....Not all farmers i may add.Thwe Govt are going to have to assist in this. I'm not saying all will be Rosy but for goodness sake..!!! As an Island nation we have traded with the world for generation after generation and will continue to do so.

Hopefully we wont have to take part in Eurovision anymore...

I sometimes can't believe what I read on here. But then I see the same on Twitter, so I'm not surprised.

Of course we'll continue to trade - but at less advantageous terms than we have now. the main thing I'm concerned about is that all the agreements, technology , infrastructure etc won't be in place in time, especially if it's a no deal situation.


If it's s no deal and goes disastrously, and we face weeks, if not months of shortages, delays and uncertainty, I expect you to suck it up without any complaint and acknowledge the part you played in pushing us off the cliff edge.

[Onelife]

I've had a bread maker for about 3 years, and already make many of my loaves, rolls and pizza bases, so I'm stocking up on bread flour and yeast. Even if there's a deal, there's no guarantee that everything will run completely smoothly from 'day 1', so I intend to have a month's worth of food in the house, so I don't have to go to the shops unless necessary. If a month's worth of food isn't sufficient, then we'll be totally screwed anyway.

I know the 'jolly boys' on this thread will guffaw and hoot and dig each other in the ribs at my actions, but I couldn't give a stuff what they think. I'm doing what I think is necessary. I hope I'm wrong about this, but I've seen and heard nothing recently to give me cause for hope.

If I'm right and the Jolly Boys are wrong, I hope they'll be man enough to accept the 'sh*t show they backed, and own their part in it, and not look to blame other people.

I'm speaking much more bluntly than I would normally, but I think the time has come for plain speaking.

I'm not sure but I think Gill means you Onelife

I don't think Gill was including me in that statement Stephen . ...l'm the one who gave Gill the idea about stocking up her freezer with Bread rolls etc...always helpful me!

Obviously, l don't want to see our country go through hard times but if this is the consequence of Brexit then so be it....l voted for a independent future for this generation and the ones that follow.

Within a few months of us leaving the rumbling within the EU will be heard loud and clear.....We need more money will be the rallying cry from those who have been sponging off the rest of us......we'll see how much bread is on the table when the EU have to cough up the dough!

P.s l know where you can get some cheap bread makers if anyone is intrested?

Nah, I was making my plans long before you said you were stocking your freezer.

Be thankful you can afford to do it. If the hard times you mention do come to pass, the ones at the bottom of the heap will be the ones to suffer most, as always.

Ok' Stephen...you were right

Gill.....l'm well placed to know what it's like to go without...been there, did it for many years.....but not at the levels some have to endure.

There is one consistent thing that bounds us altogether...We essentially look after ourselves before looking after others...that's why the rich get richer....the poor survive with handouts.
I suspect there will be an economic downturn no matter which way Brexit goes and agree with you that the poorest will feel the pinch more than those of us who have full freezers. The last forty years hasn't seen any significant improvement in the povety gap and being an EU member doesn't seem to have made much difference either....This is why the majority of those living on handout wanted change....Their reasoning for change may not have encompassed the wider issues but they voted to try and make their lives better....whether they are right or wrong only time will tell but l think they have the right to make that decision for what they hope will be a better future.

Regards

Keith

[johnds]

Oh dear it seems that for some Project Fear has almost become Project Panic. Corporal Jones lives on
Mr Hammond and his Treasury minions ( who of course have an excellent record in economic forecasting) are now claiming to predict what the economy will be like in the early 2030s

It would be well to remember what his predeccessor and the same treasury officials forecast for the following two years after the referendum if we vote to leave. (with acknowledgement to Asa Bennett)

Fear: Recession by Christmas 2016
The Treasury envisaged that merely voting to leave the EU would cause an immediate “shock”, that would see the economy “fall into recession with four quarters of negative growth”.
“Does Britain really want this DIY recession?” said George Osborne, the chancellor at the time. “Because that’s what the evidence shows we’ll get if we vote to leave the EU.”

Reality: The United Kingdom has not had a single quarter of negative growth after the referendum, with no recession materialising.

Fear: Tens of billions in extra borrowing
The Treasury expected that ministers would have to borrow tens of billions of pounds further amid the economic shock after a Leave vote. It estimated the bill after a year would be around £24 billion, or as high as £39 billion.

Reality: The battle against the budget deficit is almost over, with the latest official figures showing government borrowing has fallen to its lowest level in 16 years. Last month was the biggest surplus for any July since 2000 as receipts outstripped spending by £2 billion.

Fear: Lower productivity
The Treasury used what it called “many cautious assumptions” to warn of “lower future productivity” after a vote to leave.

Reality: Official figures confirm that output per hour worked is higher than where it was at the time of the referendum, with the last update from the Office for National Statistics revealing that it had grown by 0.9 per cent compared with the three months before. This marked its first rise since late 2016 and the biggest increase since the second quarter of 2011.

Fear: House prices falling by nearly a fifth
Mr Osborne was blunt during the referendum about what would happen to property prices in the two years after the referendum: “The country and the people in the country are going to be poorer. That affects the value of people’s homes and the Treasury analysis shows that there would be a hit to the value of people’s homes by at least 10 per cent and up to 18 per cent.”

Reality: The average UK house price has risen over the last two years, the Office for National Statistics has confirmed, with it now at £228,384. That represents a rise of around 7 per cent.

Fear: At least half a million more people out of work
The Treasury thought “unemployment would increase by around 500,000” after a Brexit vote. This was a conservative estimate, as officials thought the number could be as high as 820,000. The unemployment rate would increase by as much as 2.4 per cent.

Reality: The number of people out of work has fallen markedly since the referendum, from around 1.63 million to 1.36 million. Such a low level has not been seen in over 40 years. The unemployment rate fell over the same period from 4.9 to 4 per cent.

Fear: Tens of thousands more young people out of work
The Treasury warned that youth unemployment would increase by around 70,000 after a Brexit vote, and potentially by as much as 100,000 depending on how bad the “shock” was.

Reality: Approximately 623,000 16- to 24-year-olds were out of work around the time of the referendum. Two years on, the youth unemployment tally has fallen to 492,000. The youth unemployment rate has fallen over the same period, from 13.6 per cent to 11.3 per cent, marking its lowest level since records began.

Fear: Real wages shrinking
The Treasury thought the economic shock after voting Leave would see real wages fall by at least 2.8 per cent, and as much as 4 per cent.

Reality: The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that real wages not only rose in the month after the referendum, but they are 0.8 per cent higher than in June 2016.

[Onelife]

Hi John's

That's a pretty comprehensive analysis of the past couple of years

[barney]

Another immediate benefit is the drop in EU migration. Down to just plus eighty seven thousand. So that's only eighty seven thousand that need accommodation and sevices. When we leave I'm hoping that only those with a job offer will be allowed to come. We should see a decrease in rough sleepers in London.

[barney]

OK the benefits of Brexit
1. the ability to control and make our own laws, without interference

We do. The government has retained sovereignty throughout our membership, according to the governments own white paper.
Can you give any examples of of our laws being interfered with?

2. the ability to control our own immigration policy, without interference

The rules on EU immigration are much tighter than implemented by our government. The EU has not interfered.- see point 1.

3. the ability to strike trade agreements with other countries without interference

Please no! Disgraced former defence minister Liam Fox has already proved the easiest deal in history is not. This government wouldn't know how to deal a pack of cards.

4. the ability to control our taxation money and spend where we see fit, without interference

We do. That is why we have a Chancellor of the Exchequer, that is what he does.

That's a start.

That's no more than propaganda.

Some may be happy to see old folks homes close while we subsidised road schemes to Malta and Slovakia.
I don't know, but I know that I'm not happy about giving the EU the sums of money that we do with the hope of getting some back

You still don't know how the EU works or what it is for, do you? Perhaps you are happy to have had the benefit of it for 40 years, but just want to stop others having the same benefits.

Blimey Jack, are we going for the short five minute arguement or the full half hour

You absolutely know that all of your counters are untrue.
That is why I caveated it with , without interference.

Point 1. The UK as a member is legally obliged to inforce EU directives.
Point 2. One of the 'four pillars' is freedom of movement to work and settle.
Point 3. The EU commision do trade deals for the EU. Any member state is forbidden to strike their own deals.
Point 4. The UK contribution to the EU comes from UK taxpayers. The EU decide how and when it is spent. The contributing country has no say in this. If fact it's even worse as the EU also tell us how much we must contribute, based on GDP. We don't even get a say in how much.

PS I fully understand how the EU works which is why I voted to leave it.
The benefits of being an EU member are huge for some countries, but not for a country like the UK.
I genuinely believe that the EU dictates have held the UK back and being outside, we will be more properous.

[towny44]

I think you might be flogging a dead horse Barney, one other old saying springs to mind about Jack, there's none so blind as those that will not see.

[Jack Staff]

If you guys believe all this rubbish you have a shock coming.

[towny44]

If you guys believe all this rubbish you have a shock coming.

Why is that Jack, please elaborate with genuine reasons and not your normal suppositions.

[Jack Staff]

If you guys believe all this rubbish you have a shock coming.

Why is that Jack, please elaborate with genuine reasons and not your normal suppositions.

There will be a vote. It is the only option for May now. Brexit will lose.

In fantasy land where Brexit survives the vote (or there isn't one), there will have to be a border in NI, to trade WTO. This has already been legislated against and can not happen.
NI leaves the UK. Scotland will follow. The Conservative party will be dead as a result - they will not let that happen.

In the short term, we can not immediately trade on WTO (ignoring above), it will take months (at least). There are many things, insulin for example, where this is unacceptable.

The best you can hope for is the 'vassal state option'. This will be the deal May brings back to save the United Kingdom (and herself and party).
Complete subordination to the EU. Well done. Hope you are proud of your efforts.

[Gill W]

Oh dear it seems that for some Project Fear has almost become Project Panic. Corporal Jones lives on

What do you suggest? That we all bury our heads in the sand and pretend its going ok?

I don't think it is going OK, so I'm making preparations.

If you want to see panic, wait until the ostriches extract their heads from the sand in late March.

The rest of your post illustrates that we are doing well. Why would we risk all that progress on something that will most likely be damaging (and self inflicted)

[Gill W]

Many of the shelves in our nearest Sainsbugs were nearly empty this afternoon

Could it be panic buying by like minded ' Paniceers ', oh … no, hang on, it's a Bank Holiday weekend.

ps ... don't buy flour and yeast to make bread unless you have an electricity generator .

This is a good point.

August bank holiday is a known event and happens each year, yet still empties the supermarket shelves.

As we know, if there's an unexpected event, like bad weather, people go into panic buying mode, and empty the shelves. Due to the bad weather, there's hiccups in the supply chain, and the shelves stay empty for a day or so. People remain calm as they know that once the weather clears, things will get back to normal.

Lets apply this scenario to Brexit, particularly a no deal Brexit. Come late March, the ostriches could finally wake up and have a panic buy at the supermarket, resulting in empty shelves. This panics people even more, so as soon as deliveries happen, people would be swooping like locusts to get their panic supplies. Then Brexit happens - and lorries are delayed at ports and can't get through. The shelves aren't restocked - and people go crazy. Bearing in mind this is a country where someone called the police because KFC ran out of chicken, after a few days of empty shelves they'd be rioting in the streets. Incidently, I suspect the rioters would be the same people who would riot if Brexit didn't go ahead!

[Stephen]

Might as well all slit our wrists now Gill

[Gill W]

Might as well all slit our wrists now Gill

That's defeatist talk.

Plan for the worst, but hope for the best, for example, an outbreak of sanity

[david63]

I prefer to look at this from the "glass half full" perspective.

I have no illusions that no matter which way things go there will be some problems, but bear in mind that for every problem that we have there will be a corresponding problem elsewhere.

Let's take the tomatoes as an example (as it seems to be a major issue in some people's eyes). If we cannot import tomatoes, for whatever reason, then that means that someone, somewhere else cannot export their tomatoes. Now despite some protestations we can actually survive for quite a long time without tomatoes - much longer than the exporter can survive therefore the exporter will put pressure on their government to get it sorted.

OK I know that tomatoes are trivial thing in the grand scheme but the same will apply to many products/services. We can last a lot longer without importing German cars than they can without exporting them - we might like German cars but we don't need them.

When the time for Brexit comes I believe that the Government will have many plans in place, even though it may not look like it at the moment, and that a lot of common sense will prevail.

Anyway I won't be worrying about anything as I will be away on a cruise at the time - perhaps I will not be allowed back into the country and will have to sail around for the rest of my life!

[screwy]

Might as well all slit our wrists now Gill

That's defeatist talk.

Plan for the worst, but hope for the best, for example, an outbreak of sanity

I think it was a hint of sarcasm...

[Onelife]

Oh dear it seems that for some Project Fear has almost become Project Panic. Corporal Jones lives on

What do you suggest? That we all bury our heads in the sand and pretend its going ok?

I don't think it is going OK, so I'm making preparations.

If you want to see panic, wait until the ostriches extract their heads from the sand in late March.

The rest of your post illustrates that we are doing well. Why would we risk all that progress on something that will most likely be damaging (and self inflicted)

l'm not sure but l think Gill means you Stephen

[Manoverboard]

We bought 2 packs of Soup x 4 for the local food bank yesterday, starting next week we will be keeping them for ourselves