Brexit

[Gill W]

In which case no deal here we come, do you SERIOUSLY think the EU will allow that, especially as we have said there will be no hard Irish border which results in a very leaky EU single market.

I think this is a variation on 'they need us more than we need them'.

And around we go again in the endless circle

Denmark
Sweden
Luxembourg
Ireland

What have they got in common ?

Answer

They are the only four EU countries that buy more from us than we buy from them.

An uncomfortable truth against your argument is that they probably do need us (financially) more than we need them.

If we leave, we can trade with any other country that we choose to, on agreed terms.
None of the 27 can do that without a trade deal governed by the EU

It's easier to find suppliers than customers.

Fortunately we don't have a massive manufacturing base anymore and the financial sector has already factored in.

The car Japanese industry is going anyway, Brexit or not, due to the Japan/EU trade deal.
They only set up in the UK for access to the EU market, now the deal is done, they will retreat back to Japan, with no need for European manufacture.

Things will be different for a while, but I just can't see this end of the world scenario that some are forecasting.

OK, everything's going to be fine

Jolly good

[Gill W]

I'm just back from a buying trip at the NEC so can say exactly what is going on at the coalface.

Everybody, but everybody was discussing the dreaded B word.

The European suppliers that sell into the UK market have been massively hit regarding pre-orders, basically because no one really knows what is going to happen.
Companies that would happily commit to orders of tens of thousands are holding back and placing much smaller orders.

Our largest (Danish) supplier went into liquidation a few months back due to a drop in UK orders, so we've switched to Marble who are Scottish.
We did place orders with both Swedish and Danish companies, but just a few thousand to see how the land lies.
If tariffs end up being applicable, we'll have to renegotiate.

The 'market' is very jittery out there. Most are saying it's because of the indecision, and IF we actually leave in October, it will all settle down.

The upside was that the UK suppliers were creaming it and were very busy.

My overall impression was that most just want it all over with, one way or the other.

Then, everyone can get back to normal life and find other things to moan about.

too hot .. too cold.. too wet.. too dry .. too windy …………...

Just believe.....

I do Gill.

I'm old enough to have ridden out three or four recessions and guess what, we're all still here and the world didn't end.

Whatever the future holds, we'll deal with it. (and so will you, eventually)

Yeah, we survived the war too

[Mervyn and Trish]

Oh right , ok.

It's the nasty EU's fault

I'm trying to be realistic here Gill. I don't want "no deal" any more than you do. Where we differ is I don't want "no Brexit" either.

And without using your particular choice of phrase, yes it is the EU's decision to block further negotiation. So it will be their fault if there is a no deal exit. They have seen our parliament reject the current deal three times. They know they are flogging a dead horse.

In my view, which is no more or less informed than yours of course, I think all that is required is a tweak, a sign of willingness to compromise.

Under the present terms of the backstop the EU can simply reject any future trade deal we suggest, and any alternative plan. And we are stuck forever in the worst of both worlds. Under their rules with no say.

If they intend to negotiate a future trade deal in good faith post Brexit, rather than punish us, they don't need an open ended backstop. They could, for example, accept a time limit on it, after which we could end it unilaterally if there had been no progress on a trade deal.

But they won't. It's this deal or no deal is their current position. Which potentially means no deal. Which, they forget, means an Irish border on November 1st.

I'm not calling them nasty. But they are cutting off their nose to spite their face if they remain unwilling to even discuss compromise. They've got too used to a PM who would fold under pressure. They still assume we have one. I think they're wrong.

[Manoverboard]

We realise that the Backstop was an error of judgement … now the other 27 Countries need to come to the same conclusion …. .

I'll assume that's tongue in cheek

Not at all but I have assumed that you simply cannot resist ' marking ' everybody's posts

[david63]

The old idea is the only idea, because Johnson has nothing new.

How do you know what ideas Boris has - whatever he has he is not going to shout it from the rooftops.

[oldbluefox]

The old idea is the only idea, because Johnson has nothing new.

How do you know what ideas Boris has - whatever he has he is not going to shout it from the rooftops.

The same way they seem to know what leavers did/did not vote for.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Is it just me thinking this but couldn't the MPs now in a panic about "No Deal" have avoided it by voting for Theresa May's deal?

I realise that some of those who voted against her did so because they actually prefer "no deal".

But the vast majority who did so were Labour, Lib Dems, DUP, SNP and Tory Remainers. What they've actually achieved is making their worst nightmare more likely.

[oldbluefox]

I tend to agree Merv. This is a situation they have all created.
Would it not have made more sense to have worked for a good deal instead of putting every obstacle they could think of to try to overturn the result. Davies said it would have been easy. Not sure it was the best of comments but getting a decent deal was never going to be easy when the Remainers were trying to disrupt the process. The EU must have been thoroughly enjoying the spectacle of parliament tearing itself apart . Let's face it Labour were using Brexit to force a general election, the SNP to get independence, Plaid Cymru to cosy up to the SNP, and the Lib Dems seeing an opportunity to widen their vote base by stepping onto the Remain bandwagon. Many of the motives for opposing Brexit actually had little to do with leaving the EU but instead in pushing for their own political self interests. The Tories found themselves stuck in the middle with Theresa May, a Remainer, having to push for Brexit which I feel she never believed in hence a deal which was neither in nor out but a backstop which could have tied us to the EU indefinitely.
When I voted for us to join the Common Market as it then was I don't remember voting for a more federal Europe, neither did it say that once in we would not be able to get out either. I'm afraid all this nonsense about not voting for no deal is a smokescreen. I voted to leave and that was with a deal (which is my preference) but if not then we leave without a deal. The voting paper didn't say 'Leave with a deal, Remain if we can't get a deal' did it?
I believe if the EU change the wording of the backstop Johnson will stand a chance of getting it through, but if not then no deal it is.

[CaroleF]

Agree with you Foxy. The BBC were in full Project Fear mode this morning.

[oldbluefox]

Sky News last night had two newspaper reviewers on, both of them Remainers. I don't know about Project Fear, more like Project Hysteria, falling off cliffs, tumbling into the abyss etc!! The language gets more pathetic by the day but they seem to think if they repeat it often enough people may start believing it.

[Gill W]

Yellowhammer is the government's own dossier on the impacts of a no deal Brexit.

That's what people have been talking about.

They aren't making things up, they are commenting on a government report.

[barney]

The problem is that many do believe it.
Even one or two on this forum.

If. Could. Might.?

The bedwetters will believe anything that they are told if it suits their argument.

More and more mischief making as the clock ticks on.

[Mervyn and Trish]

An out of date report. On the worst case. If we do nothing to mitigate. (Just like the previous Project Fear predictions before the referendum. Which didn't happen because we mitigated.)

Leaked maliciously by a sacked minister.

Actually I got that slightly wrong. Second worst case. The worst is that after all this uncertainty we don't leave.

[oldbluefox]

At this moment in time all the Remainers have to cling on to is 'worst case scenario'. Love him or loathe him but Boris is now doing what we should have been doing three years ago.
Interesting interview with Digby Jones a couple of weeks ago. He was saying that so far we have concentrated on Brexit from the UK standpoint. He said have we thought about the impact on other EU states. He said the German car industry exports a million cars to UK per year, 50% of Italy's prosecco production comes to UK, Ireland would be very much isolated, France exports wine and motor cars to UK. Many of these countries are already financially in decline so it is in their interests to strike a deal rather than UK leaving without a deal.
I remain optimistic there will be a deal, presented as a no-losers face-saving remedy ie The UK achieves Brexit and the EU has not climbed down.

One positive is that all the EU flags have disappeared from outside Westminster (for the time being) and the clown in the top hat with the megaphone has gone away to annoy somebody else.

[Gill W]

An out of date report. On the worst case. If we do nothing to mitigate. (Just like the previous Project Fear predictions before the referendum. Which didn't happen because we mitigated.)

Leaked maliciously by a sacked minister.

Actually I got that slightly wrong. Second worst case. The worst is that after all this uncertainty we don't leave.

Operation Yellowhammer has been around for about a year. This apparently is an updated version. Faisal Islam reckons it’s from around 1st August.

[Gill W]

At this moment in time all the Remainers have to cling on to is 'worst case scenario'. Love him or loathe him but Boris is now doing what we should have been doing three years ago.
Interesting interview with Digby Jones a couple of weeks ago. He was saying that so far we have concentrated on Brexit from the UK standpoint. He said have we thought about the impact on other EU states. He said the German car industry exports a million cars to UK per year, 50% of Italy's prosecco production comes to UK, Ireland would be very much isolated, France exports wine and motor cars to UK. Many of these countries are already financially in decline so it is in their interests to strike a deal rather than UK leaving without a deal.
I remain optimistic there will be a deal, presented as a no-losers face-saving remedy ie The UK achieves Brexit and the EU has not climbed down.

One positive is that all the EU flags have disappeared from outside Westminster (for the time being) and the clown in the top hat with the megaphone has gone away to annoy somebody else.

At this point in time, all the Quitters have to cling to is ‘optimism’

[Gill W]

The problem is that many do believe it.
Even one or two on this forum.

If. Could. Might.?

The bedwetters will believe anything that they are told if it suits their argument.

More and more mischief making as the clock ticks on.

Well, it appears the government must believe it, otherwise they wouldn’t be spending all this money to try and mitigate the problems that their research has flagged up.

Are you suggesting that Yellowhammer is mischief making and all this money is being spent needlessly?

[Manoverboard]

Yellowhammer was set up as a part of any responsible contingency project but its existence does not mean that events will unfold as written.

[Gill W]

Well, this is confusing.

According to Quitters on this forum, Yellowhammer is simultaneously mischief making and responsible contingency planning.

Schrodinger’s Brexit

[oldbluefox]

Remainers are being very selective in focusing merely on the worst case scenario, but then they would wouldn't they? The problem is the more gullible will believe every word.

[screwy]

Top hat warrior was on the bbc news this evening annoying cabinet members.He bloody annoys me.

[towny44]

I do have to admire GillW who having been deserted by her remain colleagues is valiantly trying to return all the smashes and volleys from the massed ranks of the leave brigade on the other side of the net.

[Mervyn and Trish]

Release of a confidential document out of context is mischief making and not the whole picture. The latter is responsible planning.

[Ray Scully]

Well guys, really have been struggling with this Brexit thing without the enlightened opinion of fellow contributors since the last post of the 6th August. All i have had to inform me was newspaper and TV comment.

[Ray Scully]

It Appears that our American cousins have more respect for the GFA than our own Government

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