Current Affairs

[Kendhni]

I think it's still a good predictor of where hotspots occur.

Not when its predictions are out by a factor of 10. Divide whatever you see on there by 10 and you will be somewhere near to what the actual figures are.

telling bars they have to close at 10PM ... telling the public not mingle ... is that the best he could come up with

I suspect that this is just a "warning shot" - basically do as you are told or there will be more draconian measures put in place.

I like the way that all the pup chains are bemoaning the fact that this will harm their business as that is the busiest time of the day - just hold on a minute, you have brought this on yourselves by not enforcing the current rules.

I agree with you about the bars. I have said before (and I am pretty sure you have said similar), if bars do not obey the rules then they should lose their licenses until this is over. Sadly I htink that all this means is that the drunks will spill out onto the streets at 10PM instead of midnight.

The bit that I thought was important, and I am glad to see that Johnson did mention it, was that this is pretty much how it will be for the next 6 months.

[barney]

I think it's still a good predictor of where hotspots occur.

Not when its predictions are out by a factor of 10. Divide whatever you see on there by 10 and you will be somewhere near to what the actual figures are.

telling bars they have to close at 10PM ... telling the public not mingle ... is that the best he could come up with

I suspect that this is just a "warning shot" - basically do as you are told or there will be more draconian measures put in place.

I like the way that all the pup chains are bemoaning the fact that this will harm their business as that is the busiest time of the day - just hold on a minute, you have brought this on yourselves by not enforcing the current rules.

I agree with you about the bars. I have said before (and I am pretty sure you have said similar), if bars do not obey the rules then they should lose their licenses until this is over. Sadly I htink that all this means is that the drunks will spill out onto the streets at 10PM instead of midnight.

The bit that I thought was important, and I am glad to see that Johnson did mention it, was that this is pretty much how it will be for the next 6 months.

You’re right there.
A girl being interviewed yesterday said all we’ll have to do is start drinking earlier.
What a worry.

[Onelife]

I think it's still a good predictor of where hotspots occur.

Not when its predictions are out by a factor of 10. Divide whatever you see on there by 10 and you will be somewhere near to what the actual figures are.

The app estimates the number of affected people by looking at the symptoms displayed by more than a million regular contributors across the country and uses this data to make predictions. My observation over the last few months is that it has predicted trends and hotspots accurately and has added to the picture of covid symptoms particularly those displayed by children. The government obviously think it worthwhile as they have invested two million in it recently. I think some of the official figures are the tip of the iceberg, not everyone gets tested. Most of the data is estimated.

Surely gathering data from difference sources helps the scientist build a more accurate picture of what’s actually happening on the ground. The only solid data you can really trust imo is hospital admissions but by the time we get to that point it’s too late hence the reason we have to rely on estimates….in summary, I think it is a very useful tool. It would be even better if more people contributed, currently there are over 4 million contributors registered and I think more than a million who enter data on a regular basis. Personally, I think it that a pretty good snap shot of what’s going on in the country.

[barney]

There was three confirmed cases in Torridge since September 1st.
The app shows hundreds and caused a little panic for five minutes.
If it remotely accurate, then brilliant, but it doesn’t appear to be.
I genuinely wish there was an accurate one available.

[towny44]

I copied this from FB, it did seem to catch the attitude that far too many seem to have at present.

It is not about you. It is not an I or me me me issue. Let's say you woke up with a terrible cough, a fever, and severe body aches. Immediately, you rush to the doctor and unfortunately, you’re diagnosed with COVID-19. For the last two weeks, you’ve been unaware that you were infected and you’ve ignored "the rules." You've gotten together with some close friends for pizza, had a few people over, even visited a park and a beach. You figured, “I don’t feel sick. I have the right to keep living my normal life. No one can tell me what to do."
With your diagnosis, you spend the next few days at home on the couch, feeling pretty cr***y; but then you’re well again because you’re young, healthy and strong. Lucky you. But your best friend caught it from you during a visit to your house, and because she didn't know she was contagious, she visited her 82-year-old grandfather, who uses oxygen tanks daily to help him breathe because he has COPD and heart failure. Now, he’s dead.
Your co-worker, who has asthma, caught it too, during your little pizza get-together. Now, he’s in the ICU, and he's spread it to a few others in his family, too--but they won't know that for another couple of weeks yet.
The cashier at the restaurant where you picked up the pizza carried the infection home to his wife, who has MS, which makes her immunosuppressed. She’s not as lucky as you, so she’s admitted to the hospital because she’s having trouble breathing. She may need to be placed in a medically-induced coma and intubated; she may not get to say goodbye to her loved ones. She may die surrounded by machines, with no family at her bedside.
All because you couldn't stand the inconvenience of a mask; of staying home; of changing your familiar routines for just a little while. Because you have the right, above all others rights, to continue living your normal life and no one, I mean no one, has the right to tell you what to do.
#SocialDistancing = It’s not about YOU!
#WearAMask = It's not about YOU!
#StayHome = It's not about YOU!
#GetTested = It's not about YOU!

[Onelife]

There was three confirmed cases in Torridge since September 1st.
The app shows hundreds and caused a little panic for five minutes.
If it remotely accurate, then brilliant, but it doesn’t appear to be.
I genuinely wish there was an accurate one available.

Hi Barney the app will have only detected the symptoms that Torridge contributors have entered themselves, perhaps it could be that they are all a load of hypochondriacs in Torridge?

[barney]

There was three confirmed cases in Torridge since September 1st.
The app shows hundreds and caused a little panic for five minutes.
If it remotely accurate, then brilliant, but it doesn’t appear to be.
I genuinely wish there was an accurate one available.

Hi Barney the app will have only detected the symptoms that Torridge contributors have entered themselves, perhaps it could be that they are all a load of hypochondriacs in Torridge?

Or alternatively, it’s a rubbish app.
Many are.
I recall a few years back, my brother and I were on our way to visit our mum in Kings Hospital.
We had gone by train and had got as far as Dartford where we had to change.
While on the platform it was announced that our connection was cancelled.
My brother checked his train app and announced that it couldn’t be because his app was telling him that it was on time.
My weather app is telling me it’s raining here.
It’s not.
I know because I am looking out of the window

[Mervyn and Trish]

The covid symptoms app is estimating that there were over 11,000 infections today.

If you are referring to the Zoe app then I lost confidence in that weeks ago

Each to their own David, I think it's still a good predictor of where hotspots occur.

Me too. I think its estimates based on 4m subscribers each day give a fuller picture than 200,000 tests. I'm certain there are many more cases out there than tests show.

[Gill W]

A few thoughts.

Without a doubt, a small majority are not behaving responsibly, and are spoiling it for everyone.

However, government messaging has been confusing. Only last month they were actively encouraging us to eat out to help out and to all return to the workplace. I know it’s a fluid situation, but the changes in direction are very abrupt.

Johnson implied that the reason people weren’t complying with the rules is because the British like their freedom. He seemed to be trying to put a positive spin on the flouting of regulations. Perhaps he was trying to engage with the rule breakers.

He lacks moral authority to tell us what to do. The bit where he said that the regulations apply to everyone - there was a chunk of the country yelling ‘’Dominic Cummings’ or ‘Barnard Castle’ at the TV. Sorry guys, this hasn’t gone away - people are still fuming about this and it tends to come from a section of society who are supportive of keeping to the rules.

Personally, I feel the announcement yesterday didn’t go far enough to stop the spread of the virus, and we’ll probably get more measures within a few weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if England shortly follows Scotland and stops households mixing at home.

He was right to emphasise that this is likely to go on all winter. But, sooner or later, he’ll have to set expectations for what’s going to happen after that. People might think it’ll be back to normal in April...... but even if there is a vaccine, we don’t know how effective it’s be, how long it would take to vaccinate people, or even who would be eligible. We’ll almost certainly be living under some sort of restriction for the whole of 2021. People can’t cope with to much information all at once.... but it’s something that will need to be communicated.

It’s going to be a grim winter. What with Covid, the other thing that’s happening and add a flood or snow..... it could be a perfect storm.

[Stephen]

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[barney]

It’s possibly determined by your own state of mind.
I’m quite sanguine about it all.
If we have to stay in more, so be it.
Hopefully my wife’s business will be able to keep going through the winter months but fortunately for us, it will not be the end of the world if she has to temporarily close again.

Some will find it intolerable.
We have good friends who’s family seem to stumble from crisis to crisis and they will suffer whatever does or doesn’t happen.

[Kendhni]

Personally, I feel the announcement yesterday didn’t go far enough to stop the spread of the virus, and we’ll probably get more measures within a few weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if England shortly follows Scotland and stops households mixing at home.

There was a report on one of the news channels this morning that suggested that Johnson was now actually moving towards a Sweden style herd immunity solution - those that need to isolate should, those that don't should be allowed some normality. (within strict rules). It will be interesting to see how this pans out (personally I don't think he has gone far enough).

[david63]

The app estimates the number of affected people by looking at the symptoms displayed by more than a million regular contributors across the country and uses this data to make predictions

I fully understand the premise behind the app but the one million that you quote is actually 4.2 million which equates to approximately 6% of the population and that is where the problem lies - the sample size is not large enough which is why the results are inaccurate.

A couple of weeks ago it was saying that there was insufficient data to report the number of cases in Bolton when Bolton had the highest number in the UK. Other areas that I have looked at are, as I said before, exaggerated by a factor of 10 - which comes from an inadequate sample.

I am all for gathering as much information as possible but the data has to be reliable and as far as I can see this is not.

[david63]

how long it would take to vaccinate people, or even who would be eligible

That has already been planned.

I read a report the other week which said that it will probably take the best part of 12 months to vaccinate the whole world - or at least those in the world who want a vaccine and don't think that it is some "master plan" to put a mirco chip into everyone!

As for who will be eligible - first will be health care workers, followed by those at the greatest risk, then those over 65 followed by everyone else. There will however be the proviso that no one country (USA, China and Russia excepted) that will be able to vaccinate more than 20% of its population until all countries have vaccinated 20%. In other words no one country will be able to have sole production of any vaccine - it has to be distributed fairly.

[Onelife]

The app estimates the number of affected people by looking at the symptoms displayed by more than a million regular contributors across the country and uses this data to make predictions

I fully understand the premise behind the app but the one million that you quote is actually 4.2 million which equates to approximately 6% of the population and that is where the problem lies - the sample size is not large enough which is why the results are inaccurate.

A couple of weeks ago it was saying that there was insufficient data to report the number of cases in Bolton when Bolton had the highest number in the UK. Other areas that I have looked at are, as I said before, exaggerated by a factor of 10 - which comes from an inadequate sample.

I am all for gathering as much information as possible but the data has to be reliable and as far as I can see this is not.

The four million are the number of people registered but it's my understanding from looking at their reports that it is nearer one million who submit regularly. However, I don't think even this can be classed as a small sample, and l believe it is considerably bigger than the sample obtained by ONS.

I don't know why you think the statistics are exaggerated they've always seemed spot on to me.

[barney]

There’s a program on radio 4 called More or Less.
You really should check it out and it will change your view of how statistics are used.
If you like stats, it’s an interesting listen although it can get a bit samey.

[barney]

I’ve just been reading an interesting piece saying that the U.K. has the 2nd highest declared percentage death rate in the world, after Italy.
Covid, obviously.

I thought our health service was in a bit of disarray due to funding issues but really didn’t have any idea that it was actually one of the worst in the world.

[Gill W]

Personally, I feel the announcement yesterday didn’t go far enough to stop the spread of the virus, and we’ll probably get more measures within a few weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if England shortly follows Scotland and stops households mixing at home.

There was a report on one of the news channels this morning that suggested that Johnson was now actually moving towards a Sweden style herd immunity solution - those that need to isolate should, those that don't should be allowed some normality. (within strict rules). It will be interesting to see how this pans out (personally I don't think he has gone far enough).

Last night he inferred that the vulnerable shouldn't have to isolate...... but that could change next week!

[Stephen]

how long it would take to vaccinate people, or even who would be eligible

That has already been planned.

I read a report the other week which said that it will probably take the best part of 12 months to vaccinate the whole world - or at least those in the world who want a vaccine and don't think that it is some "master plan" to put a mirco chip into everyone!

As for who will be eligible - first will be health care workers, followed by those at the greatest risk, then those over 65 followed by everyone else. There will however be the proviso that no one country (USA, China and Russia excepted) that will be able to vaccinate more than 20% of its population until all countries have vaccinated 20%. In other words no one country will be able to have sole production of any vaccine - it has to be distributed fairly.

That sounds an impressive/optimistic time scale.

[barney]

Personally, I feel the announcement yesterday didn’t go far enough to stop the spread of the virus, and we’ll probably get more measures within a few weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if England shortly follows Scotland and stops households mixing at home.

There was a report on one of the news channels this morning that suggested that Johnson was now actually moving towards a Sweden style herd immunity solution - those that need to isolate should, those that don't should be allowed some normality. (within strict rules). It will be interesting to see how this pans out (personally I don't think he has gone far enough).

Last night he inferred that the vulnerable shouldn't have to isolate...... but that could change next week!

I think we can take that as a given.
In fact I’d go further and say that the vulnerable have an obligation to protect themselves as much as possible so they are not a burden on the NHS.
Our local pubs clientele seems to be under 40’s excluding a couple of older regulars.
Of the four pubs in Instow, two are more like restaurants that sell drink. The other two are pubs that sell food.
The Boathouse and the Instow Arms are literally across from the beach so many pick up their drinks and sit on the beach wall socially distancing.
That’s the place to sit and watch the stunning sunset over Appledore.
They all officially close at 11 but most are long gone by then.

[oldbluefox]

My take is that anyone who comes into the vulnerable category or was shielded should not need Gove, Boris or anyone else to tell them what to do until this pandemic is past, vaccinations are in place and the coast is clear. Why should anyone rely on a politician to tell them what to do except when things go awry they need someone to blame.

[towny44]

Personally, I feel the announcement yesterday didn’t go far enough to stop the spread of the virus, and we’ll probably get more measures within a few weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if England shortly follows Scotland and stops households mixing at home.

There was a report on one of the news channels this morning that suggested that Johnson was now actually moving towards a Sweden style herd immunity solution - those that need to isolate should, those that don't should be allowed some normality. (within strict rules). It will be interesting to see how this pans out (personally I don't think he has gone far enough).

Last night he inferred that the vulnerable shouldn't have to isolate...... but that could change next week!

Gill, what do want from Boris, a single minded reluctance to ever change tack, or a willingness to alter course to try and improve things.
The media seem to criticise him whatever he does, no wonder he is having second thoughts about giving up an easy back bench role with a regular journalist job and lucrative speaking engagements giving him £350,000pa plus, against his meagre £150,000pa PM job.

[Kendhni]

My take is that anyone who comes into the vulnerable category or was shielded should not need Gove, Boris or anyone else to tell them what to do until this pandemic is past, vaccinations are in place and the coast is clear. Why should anyone rely on a politician to tell them what to do except when things go awry they need someone to blame.

You are crediting people with intelligence - they could well prove you wrong.

[barney]

My take is that anyone who comes into the vulnerable category or was shielded should not need Gove, Boris or anyone else to tell them what to do until this pandemic is past, vaccinations are in place and the coast is clear. Why should anyone rely on a politician to tell them what to do except when things go awry they need someone to blame.

I tend to agree and think that anyone who is vulnerable and doesn’t go out of their way to protect themselves is the architect of their own demise.
I think the time may come when grandparents will be needing to say to their teenage grandchildren, please stay away.

[towny44]

What do others think of the ending of the furlough scheme at the end of October.
The majority of companies still needing this to pay unneeded staff are unlikely to need these staff, airlines, travel cos, hospitality cos, aerospace industries etc, in fact most of these will not need new staff for years to come.
Surely it is better to allow these companies to downsize and establish the true unemployment level, so the govt knows the size of the problem, and can then look at how they can prevent hardship and poverty, and begin to look at how and where they can try to develop new jobs.
Not an easy task, but hiding this by continuing the furlough scheme does not seem realistic.
Anyway Rishi will be letting us have his views tomorrow, so let's have some of your thoughts on what he should do.